Cal St. Bakersfield
Western Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#210
Achievement Rating-0.9#183
Pace64.5#310
Improvement-1.9#299

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#267
First Shot-5.6#310
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#60
Layup/Dunks-8.7#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#36
Freethrows-2.6#300
Improvement+0.3#147

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#151
First Shot+0.7#149
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#194
Layups/Dunks+3.4#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#154
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#127
Freethrows-4.6#338
Improvement-2.2#321
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 4.2% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 36.9% 45.0% 21.2%
.500 or above in Conference 50.0% 54.1% 42.3%
Conference Champion 2.7% 3.2% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 2.0% 3.5%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round3.4% 4.0% 2.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 65.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 29   @ TCU L 61-66 5%     0 - 1 +10.5 -3.4 +13.9
  Nov 15, 2018 173   Central Michigan L 55-67 42%     0 - 2 -12.8 -20.0 +7.3
  Nov 17, 2018 325   San Jose St. W 73-72 77%     1 - 2 -9.8 -2.4 -7.4
  Nov 18, 2018 154   Weber St. W 68-67 37%     2 - 2 +1.5 -4.1 +5.5
  Nov 25, 2018 94   @ USC L 75-90 14%     2 - 3 -6.4 +3.0 -8.9
  Dec 01, 2018 171   @ South Dakota L 56-68 31%     2 - 4 -9.7 -8.3 -2.3
  Dec 08, 2018 286   @ Idaho W 73-67 54%     3 - 4 +2.1 +4.2 -1.5
  Dec 13, 2018 230   Lamar W 69-65 66%    
  Dec 18, 2018 309   Cal Poly W 69-60 79%    
  Dec 20, 2018 234   @ Portland St. L 72-73 45%    
  Dec 31, 2018 2   @ Gonzaga L 62-87 1%    
  Jan 03, 2019 169   Seattle W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 05, 2019 140   Utah Valley L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 10, 2019 222   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 66-68 41%    
  Jan 12, 2019 63   @ New Mexico St. L 58-72 11%    
  Jan 17, 2019 268   UMKC W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 19, 2019 349   Chicago St. W 79-63 93%    
  Jan 24, 2019 236   @ California Baptist L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 02, 2019 117   Grand Canyon L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 07, 2019 63   New Mexico St. L 61-69 25%    
  Feb 09, 2019 222   UT Rio Grande Valley W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 14, 2019 349   @ Chicago St. W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 16, 2019 268   @ UMKC W 68-67 50%    
  Feb 23, 2019 236   California Baptist W 73-68 66%    
  Mar 02, 2019 117   @ Grand Canyon L 62-72 19%    
  Mar 07, 2019 169   @ Seattle L 65-70 32%    
  Mar 09, 2019 140   @ Utah Valley L 63-71 25%    
Projected Record 12.5 - 14.5 7.5 - 8.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 2.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.0 7.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 16.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 6.1 8.0 2.7 0.2 0.0 18.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 6.2 7.3 2.2 0.1 17.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 5.7 5.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 15.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.9 2.9 0.8 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.0 6.0 10.0 13.8 15.9 15.6 13.4 9.7 6.1 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 92.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
13-3 63.8% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-4 27.7% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-5 5.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 35.7% 34.8% 0.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4%
14-2 0.4% 26.9% 26.9% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-3 1.4% 18.7% 18.7% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-4 3.2% 12.3% 12.2% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.8 0.1%
11-5 6.1% 9.0% 9.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 5.6
10-6 9.7% 6.5% 6.5% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 9.1
9-7 13.4% 4.5% 4.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 12.8
8-8 15.6% 2.9% 2.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 15.2
7-9 15.9% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 15.5
6-10 13.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 13.7
5-11 10.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.9
4-12 6.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.0
3-13 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
2-14 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.0
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.1 96.3 0.0%