Cal St. Bakersfield
Western Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#191
Achievement Rating+1.2#153
Pace65.8#269
Improvement+1.3#117

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#193
First Shot-2.8#264
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#34
Layup/Dunks-5.2#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#6
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#222
Freethrows-2.2#311
Improvement+3.3#43

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#208
First Shot-1.8#231
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#128
Layups/Dunks+4.2#28
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#170
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#215
Freethrows-5.3#352
Improvement-2.0#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 4.0% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 92.7% 100.0% 85.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.1% 100.0% 84.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round3.4% 4.0% 2.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Away) - 48.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 33   @ TCU L 61-66 7%     0 - 1 +9.5 -4.8 +14.3
  Nov 15, 2018 148   Central Michigan L 55-67 38%     0 - 2 -10.7 -20.5 +10.0
  Nov 17, 2018 339   San Jose St. W 73-72 86%     1 - 2 -12.4 -4.1 -8.2
  Nov 18, 2018 171   Weber St. W 68-67 44%     2 - 2 +0.5 -4.3 +4.8
  Nov 25, 2018 79   @ USC L 75-90 15%     2 - 3 -6.0 +3.3 -8.8
  Dec 01, 2018 231   @ South Dakota L 56-68 49%     2 - 4 -13.7 -12.2 -2.4
  Dec 08, 2018 344   @ Idaho W 73-67 82%     3 - 4 -5.6 +0.2 -5.2
  Dec 13, 2018 249   Lamar W 86-65 72%     4 - 4 +13.1 +5.0 +7.2
  Dec 18, 2018 327   Cal Poly W 74-61 87%     5 - 4 -1.0 -1.5 +1.1
  Dec 20, 2018 291   @ Portland St. W 76-71 60%     6 - 4 +0.4 -0.9 +1.3
  Dec 31, 2018 2   @ Gonzaga L 54-89 1%     6 - 5 -8.3 -9.2 +1.0
  Jan 03, 2019 200   Seattle W 83-71 62%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +7.0 +12.5 -5.0
  Jan 05, 2019 120   Utah Valley W 73-71 40%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +2.8 +9.4 -6.4
  Jan 10, 2019 183   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-69 37%     9 - 5 3 - 0 +7.5 -0.5 +7.3
  Jan 12, 2019 60   @ New Mexico St. L 62-73 12%     9 - 6 3 - 1 -0.4 +1.1 -2.9
  Jan 17, 2019 232   UMKC W 74-73 69%     10 - 6 4 - 1 -6.2 +4.7 -10.7
  Jan 19, 2019 351   Chicago St. W 86-73 96%     11 - 6 5 - 1 -9.2 +1.3 -10.7
  Jan 24, 2019 212   @ California Baptist W 88-84 45%     12 - 6 6 - 1 +3.4 +8.0 -4.8
  Feb 02, 2019 104   Grand Canyon L 59-72 35%     12 - 7 6 - 2 -11.1 -10.8 -0.7
  Feb 07, 2019 60   New Mexico St. L 70-71 25%     12 - 8 6 - 3 +4.1 -1.7 +5.8
  Feb 09, 2019 183   UT Rio Grande Valley L 74-79 58%     12 - 9 6 - 4 -8.9 -4.1 -4.3
  Feb 14, 2019 351   @ Chicago St. W 75-62 91%     13 - 9 7 - 4 -3.8 +3.0 -5.3
  Feb 16, 2019 232   @ UMKC L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 23, 2019 212   California Baptist W 76-72 66%    
  Mar 02, 2019 104   @ Grand Canyon L 65-74 18%    
  Mar 07, 2019 200   @ Seattle L 68-70 41%    
  Mar 09, 2019 120   @ Utah Valley L 68-76 21%    
Projected Record 15.0 - 12.0 9.0 - 7.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 4.3 5.4 0.8 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.5 12.0 1.1 17.7 3rd
4th 0.0 3.8 18.9 5.7 0.0 28.5 4th
5th 2.7 20.5 11.8 0.3 35.3 5th
6th 4.0 2.6 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 1.2 0.1 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 7.9 26.9 35.5 22.3 6.5 0.8 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.8% 0.0    0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.8% 9.4% 9.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-5 6.5% 7.4% 7.4% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 6.0
10-6 22.3% 4.9% 4.9% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 21.2
9-7 35.5% 3.0% 3.0% 15.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 34.4
8-8 26.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 26.3
7-9 7.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 7.8
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 0.5 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.7 4.3 34.8 43.5 17.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 6.0%