Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#159
Achievement Rating-0.8#180
Pace74.2#63
Improvement+2.9#61

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#257
First Shot-0.5#194
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#326
Layup/Dunks+5.1#23
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#163
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#339
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement+1.2#122

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#97
First Shot+2.0#110
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#91
Layups/Dunks-1.2#239
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#92
Freethrows+0.4#146
Improvement+1.7#96
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.9% 17.2% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 36.4% 46.0% 12.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 2.4% 3.2% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 1.2%
First Round15.7% 17.0% 12.4%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Home) - 71.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 54   @ Arizona St. L 94-102 14%     0 - 1 +3.5 +1.8 +3.8
  Nov 15, 2018 52   Central Florida L 52-68 20%     0 - 2 -6.8 -13.7 +6.2
  Nov 16, 2018 176   Wake Forest L 59-66 53%     0 - 3 -7.7 -14.4 +6.7
  Nov 18, 2018 271   Monmouth W 87-63 73%     1 - 3 +17.7 +3.4 +11.2
  Nov 21, 2018 87   @ Hofstra L 71-80 21%     1 - 4 -0.4 -4.6 +4.5
  Nov 24, 2018 264   @ Sacramento St. L 82-87 62%     1 - 5 -8.1 -8.0 +0.9
  Dec 05, 2018 143   Loyola Marymount L 49-59 54%     1 - 6 -11.0 -18.4 +6.6
  Dec 10, 2018 53   @ St. Mary's L 66-81 14%     1 - 7 -3.1 +6.1 -11.6
  Dec 16, 2018 61   @ San Francisco L 54-68 17%     1 - 8 -3.5 -10.9 +6.5
  Dec 22, 2018 35   @ Nebraska L 62-86 10%     1 - 9 -9.7 -7.3 -0.7
  Dec 29, 2018 317   Portland W 79-64 88%     2 - 9 +2.4 +4.8 -1.9
  Jan 01, 2019 36   @ Washington L 76-84 10%     2 - 10 +6.1 +8.0 -1.5
  Jan 09, 2019 160   @ Hawaii L 68-79 40%     2 - 11 0 - 1 -8.3 -5.1 -2.9
  Jan 12, 2019 107   UC Irvine L 46-63 44%     2 - 12 0 - 2 -15.3 -21.9 +5.9
  Jan 17, 2019 311   UC Riverside W 69-61 86%     3 - 12 1 - 2 -3.5 -4.6 +1.8
  Jan 19, 2019 221   @ Long Beach St. W 92-90 53%     4 - 12 2 - 2 +1.4 -0.5 +1.5
  Jan 24, 2019 172   UC Santa Barbara W 81-60 63%     5 - 12 3 - 2 +17.7 +10.5 +8.5
  Jan 26, 2019 329   @ Cal Poly W 80-63 80%     6 - 12 4 - 2 +8.4 +13.0 -2.8
  Jan 30, 2019 276   Cal St. Northridge W 78-71 81%     7 - 12 5 - 2 -2.3 -4.6 +2.1
  Feb 06, 2019 107   @ UC Irvine L 53-60 25%     7 - 13 5 - 3 +0.2 -12.6 +12.6
  Feb 09, 2019 311   @ UC Riverside W 77-54 72%     8 - 13 6 - 3 +17.0 +1.7 +16.0
  Feb 13, 2019 221   Long Beach St. W 85-82 73%     9 - 13 7 - 3 -3.2 -2.6 -1.0
  Feb 16, 2019 276   @ Cal St. Northridge W 78-71 65%     10 - 13 8 - 3 +3.2 -5.5 +8.2
  Feb 21, 2019 207   UC Davis W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 23, 2019 172   @ UC Santa Barbara L 67-69 41%    
  Feb 28, 2019 329   Cal Poly W 73-59 91%    
  Mar 02, 2019 207   @ UC Davis W 68-67 50%    
  Mar 09, 2019 160   Hawaii W 70-67 62%    
Projected Record 13.1 - 14.9 11.1 - 4.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 6.4 32.1 28.0 8.2 74.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 11.8 2.6 15.4 3rd
4th 0.1 3.0 2.3 5.3 4th
5th 0.4 1.8 2.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.5 5.8 20.5 34.8 28.8 9.7 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 15.9% 1.6    0.2 1.3
12-4 2.5% 0.7    0.1 0.7 0.0
11-5 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 0.3 2.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 9.7% 23.0% 23.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.6 0.0 7.5
12-4 28.8% 19.2% 19.2% 15.0 0.0 0.8 4.1 0.7 23.2
11-5 34.8% 15.6% 15.6% 15.2 0.2 3.7 1.6 29.3
10-6 20.5% 10.9% 10.9% 15.6 0.0 0.9 1.3 18.3
9-7 5.8% 7.8% 7.8% 15.9 0.1 0.4 5.3
8-8 0.5% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 2.4 9.3 4.0 84.1 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 14.2 0.1 10.2 60.9 28.2 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9%
Lose Out 0.3%