Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.0#326
Achievement Rating-9.5#282
Pace78.2#34
Improvement-0.3#199

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#286
First Shot-4.3#289
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#158
Layup/Dunks+3.1#84
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#144
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#316
Freethrows-2.5#296
Improvement+1.4#69

Defense
Total Defense-6.8#338
First Shot-4.9#316
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#292
Layups/Dunks-0.7#208
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#254
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#302
Freethrows+0.8#134
Improvement-1.8#297
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.5% 3.1% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 5.2% 10.7% 5.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 54.5% 40.2% 54.8%
First Four0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 2.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 146   New Mexico L 84-87 20%     0 - 1 -4.9 -3.8 -0.7
  Nov 13, 2018 135   @ Loyola Marymount L 64-79 7%     0 - 2 -9.6 -7.7 -1.2
  Nov 17, 2018 270   Portland L 77-80 43%     0 - 3 -12.1 -1.6 -10.5
  Nov 20, 2018 280   Tennessee St. W 80-77 45%     1 - 3 -6.7 -2.9 -4.1
  Nov 27, 2018 161   @ Washington St. L 94-103 10%     1 - 4 -5.9 +5.2 -9.7
  Dec 01, 2018 227   Sacramento St. L 68-88 35%     1 - 5 -27.1 -11.0 -14.8
  Dec 03, 2018 225   @ Pepperdine W 90-83 17%     2 - 5 +6.3 +5.9 -0.3
  Dec 09, 2018 71   @ San Diego L 65-86 2%    
  Dec 16, 2018 163   Pacific L 73-81 23%    
  Dec 19, 2018 63   @ New Mexico St. L 64-86 2%    
  Dec 22, 2018 327   SIU Edwardsville W 80-79 50%    
  Dec 29, 2018 312   Morgan St. W 80-79 53%    
  Jan 01, 2019 70   @ San Diego St. L 69-90 3%    
  Jan 05, 2019 91   Yale L 75-89 10%    
  Jan 09, 2019 293   @ UC Riverside L 69-76 27%    
  Jan 12, 2019 306   @ Cal Poly L 72-77 31%    
  Jan 17, 2019 186   Hawaii L 71-77 28%    
  Jan 19, 2019 98   UC Irvine L 66-79 11%    
  Jan 23, 2019 195   Long Beach St. L 79-85 29%    
  Jan 30, 2019 167   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 70-84 11%    
  Feb 02, 2019 306   Cal Poly W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 06, 2019 147   @ UC Santa Barbara L 65-80 9%    
  Feb 13, 2019 222   @ UC Davis L 65-75 18%    
  Feb 16, 2019 167   Cal St. Fullerton L 73-81 25%    
  Feb 20, 2019 195   @ Long Beach St. L 76-88 14%    
  Feb 23, 2019 222   UC Davis L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 27, 2019 293   UC Riverside L 72-73 48%    
  Mar 02, 2019 186   @ Hawaii L 68-80 14%    
  Mar 07, 2019 147   UC Santa Barbara L 68-77 21%    
  Mar 09, 2019 98   @ UC Irvine L 63-82 4%    
Projected Record 7.2 - 22.8 3.8 - 12.2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.0 6.9 3.8 0.5 0.0 15.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.7 8.2 9.8 4.5 0.6 0.0 26.0 8th
9th 3.5 10.0 13.5 9.8 3.5 0.4 0.0 40.9 9th
Total 3.5 10.2 16.2 18.7 17.4 13.6 9.4 5.7 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 21.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.1% 15.2% 15.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.2% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-6 0.6% 4.8% 4.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-7 1.4% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
8-8 2.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
7-9 5.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 5.6
6-10 9.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.4
5-11 13.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.5
4-12 17.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.4
3-13 18.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.7
2-14 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.2
1-15 10.2% 10.2
0-16 3.5% 3.5
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%