Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#276
Achievement Rating-7.1#274
Pace74.2#62
Improvement+2.3#76

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#173
First Shot-1.3#220
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#67
Layup/Dunks-0.5#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#291
Freethrows-1.6#287
Improvement+1.0#137

Defense
Total Defense-6.8#337
First Shot-4.2#301
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#341
Layups/Dunks-0.4#194
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#258
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#270
Freethrows-0.7#226
Improvement+1.3#107
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.2% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 11.1% 27.7% 4.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four1.5% 1.8% 1.4%
First Round1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Away) - 28.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 155   New Mexico L 84-87 34%     0 - 1 -5.2 -0.5 -4.4
  Nov 13, 2018 143   @ Loyola Marymount L 64-79 15%     0 - 2 -10.5 -7.4 -2.5
  Nov 17, 2018 317   Portland L 77-80 72%     0 - 3 -15.6 +0.2 -15.8
  Nov 20, 2018 312   Tennessee St. W 80-77 68%     1 - 3 -8.6 -5.0 -3.8
  Nov 27, 2018 167   @ Washington St. L 94-103 19%     1 - 4 -6.5 +4.0 -9.1
  Dec 01, 2018 264   Sacramento St. L 68-88 58%     1 - 5 -28.7 -12.0 -15.3
  Dec 03, 2018 161   @ Pepperdine W 90-83 19%     2 - 5 +9.6 +8.8 +0.1
  Dec 09, 2018 103   @ San Diego L 68-82 10%     2 - 6 -6.5 -1.9 -4.3
  Dec 16, 2018 187   Pacific L 77-79 41%     2 - 7 -6.4 +0.7 -7.0
  Dec 19, 2018 62   @ New Mexico St. L 57-92 7%     2 - 8 -24.8 -9.8 -15.6
  Dec 22, 2018 332   SIU Edwardsville W 85-79 68%     3 - 8 -5.5 -3.6 -2.6
  Dec 23, 2018 195   Rider W 81-80 33%     4 - 8 -1.0 +14.0 -15.0
  Dec 29, 2018 334   Morgan St. W 94-86 79%     5 - 8 -7.1 +1.5 -9.8
  Jan 01, 2019 115   @ San Diego St. L 60-65 11%     5 - 9 +1.7 -7.7 +9.3
  Jan 05, 2019 88   Yale L 90-94 18%     5 - 10 -0.9 +4.9 -5.2
  Jan 09, 2019 311   @ UC Riverside W 84-83 48%     6 - 10 1 - 0 -5.0 +8.8 -13.8
  Jan 12, 2019 329   @ Cal Poly W 78-74 58%     7 - 10 2 - 0 -4.6 -5.0 +0.0
  Jan 17, 2019 160   Hawaii L 79-84 36%     7 - 11 2 - 1 -7.8 +4.6 -12.4
  Jan 19, 2019 107   UC Irvine L 68-74 22%     7 - 12 2 - 2 -4.3 +5.5 -10.4
  Jan 23, 2019 221   Long Beach St. W 86-71 48%     8 - 12 3 - 2 +8.8 +10.5 -1.5
  Jan 30, 2019 159   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 71-78 19%     8 - 13 3 - 3 -4.1 +1.0 -4.9
  Feb 02, 2019 329   Cal Poly W 83-65 76%     9 - 13 4 - 3 +3.9 +11.1 -5.8
  Feb 06, 2019 172   @ UC Santa Barbara L 64-70 20%     9 - 14 4 - 4 -3.7 -3.7 -0.5
  Feb 13, 2019 207   @ UC Davis L 59-76 26%     9 - 15 4 - 5 -17.0 -7.5 -10.7
  Feb 16, 2019 159   Cal St. Fullerton L 71-78 35%     9 - 16 4 - 6 -9.6 -5.1 -4.0
  Feb 20, 2019 221   @ Long Beach St. L 80-86 28%    
  Feb 23, 2019 207   UC Davis L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 27, 2019 311   UC Riverside W 77-72 69%    
  Mar 02, 2019 160   @ Hawaii L 71-80 19%    
  Mar 07, 2019 172   UC Santa Barbara L 73-76 39%    
  Mar 09, 2019 107   @ UC Irvine L 66-80 10%    
Projected Record 11.1 - 19.9 6.1 - 9.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 1.0 0.0 3.4 4th
5th 0.3 5.0 4.8 0.2 10.3 5th
6th 2.0 18.4 17.6 2.1 0.0 40.1 6th
7th 2.1 20.3 15.2 1.2 38.8 7th
8th 4.4 2.1 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 6.5 24.4 34.0 24.0 9.2 1.7 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.1% 6.2% 6.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-7 1.7% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.7
8-8 9.2% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.9
7-9 24.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.5 23.6
6-10 34.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.5 33.4
5-11 24.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 24.2
4-12 6.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.5
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%
Lose Out 5.8%