California Baptist
Western Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#217
Achievement Rating-3.7#212
Pace71.7#108
Improvement+2.9#60

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#148
First Shot+1.5#138
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#208
Layup/Dunks+2.1#105
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#79
Freethrows-0.9#240
Improvement+1.9#89

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#286
First Shot-5.0#315
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#100
Layups/Dunks-4.2#326
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#200
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#82
Freethrows-3.0#330
Improvement+1.0#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 3.5% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 16.8% 41.0% 12.6%
.500 or above in Conference 27.3% 60.4% 21.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round1.9% 3.4% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 14.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 280   @ Oral Roberts W 70-69 53%     1 - 0 -2.9 -6.9 +4.0
  Nov 16, 2018 96   @ Tulsa L 79-82 15%     1 - 1 +4.8 +7.3 -2.3
  Nov 19, 2018 13   @ Nevada L 55-90 3%     1 - 2 -16.1 -12.2 -2.0
  Nov 23, 2018 330   Arkansas Pine Bluff L 107-115 78%     1 - 3 -19.4 +0.2 -17.4
  Nov 24, 2018 321   Howard L 84-86 75%     1 - 4 -12.2 -3.9 -8.1
  Nov 29, 2018 311   @ UC Riverside W 80-70 61%     2 - 4 +4.0 +4.1 +0.1
  Dec 01, 2018 350   Mississippi Valley W 107-71 94%     3 - 4 +15.6 +11.8 -1.0
  Dec 05, 2018 107   UC Irvine L 66-69 32%     3 - 5 -1.3 -1.7 +0.3
  Dec 17, 2018 242   @ SE Louisiana W 73-52 45%     4 - 5 +19.0 +4.4 +15.4
  Dec 19, 2018 342   @ Southern W 79-76 79%     5 - 5 -8.7 -0.1 -8.6
  Jan 03, 2019 62   New Mexico St. W 82-76 22%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +10.7 +9.7 +0.9
  Jan 05, 2019 186   UT Rio Grande Valley L 74-81 54%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -11.4 -3.0 -7.8
  Jan 10, 2019 229   @ UMKC L 68-84 43%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -17.4 -8.5 -8.2
  Jan 12, 2019 351   @ Chicago St. W 77-75 90%     7 - 7 2 - 2 -15.1 -5.8 -9.4
  Jan 24, 2019 200   Cal St. Bakersfield L 84-88 57%     7 - 8 2 - 3 -9.1 +3.7 -12.6
  Jan 26, 2019 102   Grand Canyon L 73-90 30%     7 - 9 2 - 4 -14.9 +3.5 -19.0
  Jan 30, 2019 114   @ Utah Valley L 62-79 17%     7 - 10 2 - 5 -10.3 -7.4 -3.2
  Feb 02, 2019 193   @ Seattle W 75-64 35%     8 - 10 3 - 5 +11.8 +13.1 +0.0
  Feb 07, 2019 351   Chicago St. W 94-44 95%     9 - 10 4 - 5 +27.3 +20.1 +12.4
  Feb 09, 2019 229   UMKC W 70-60 64%     10 - 10 5 - 5 +3.1 +2.0 +2.2
  Feb 21, 2019 102   @ Grand Canyon L 69-80 15%    
  Feb 23, 2019 200   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 28, 2019 193   Seattle W 74-73 56%    
  Mar 02, 2019 114   Utah Valley L 75-79 35%    
  Mar 07, 2019 186   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 71-75 33%    
  Mar 09, 2019 62   @ New Mexico St. L 67-80 10%    
Projected Record 11.8 - 14.2 6.8 - 9.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 0.7 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 3.8 3.8 0.1 7.6 4th
5th 4.3 11.3 0.6 16.3 5th
6th 0.2 8.1 19.8 4.1 0.0 32.1 6th
7th 7.4 20.4 7.9 0.1 35.8 7th
8th 3.8 0.8 4.6 8th
9th 9th
Total 11.4 29.3 32.0 19.4 6.6 1.2 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.1% 8.3% 8.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-6 1.2% 7.4% 7.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
9-7 6.6% 4.6% 4.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 6.3
8-8 19.4% 3.0% 3.0% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 18.8
7-9 32.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.7 0.2 0.5 31.4
6-10 29.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 28.9
5-11 11.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 11.3
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.2 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%
Lose Out 9.7%