Canisius
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#239
Achievement Rating-2.2#197
Pace70.3#142
Improvement+0.4#169

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#224
First Shot-1.8#236
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#160
Layup/Dunks+0.2#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#264
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#162
Freethrows-1.0#249
Improvement+2.7#53

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#251
First Shot-1.6#227
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#289
Layups/Dunks-2.2#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#123
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#130
Freethrows-1.4#268
Improvement-2.2#293
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.9% 13.7% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 53.5% 62.1% 26.5%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 60.4% 68.3% 35.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.2% 5.1% 5.5%
First Round10.5% 11.4% 7.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Home) - 75.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 143   @ Bucknell W 82-73 20%     1 - 0 +13.4 +8.6 +4.6
  Nov 17, 2018 292   Albany L 66-75 70%     1 - 1 -19.1 -9.9 -9.2
  Nov 19, 2018 19   @ Florida St. L 61-93 3%     1 - 2 -13.9 -3.9 -9.0
  Nov 22, 2018 17   Villanova L 56-83 4%     1 - 3 -11.5 -12.2 +0.4
  Nov 23, 2018 76   Memphis L 63-71 15%     1 - 4 -1.6 -7.3 +5.7
  Nov 25, 2018 163   UAB L 58-68 34%     1 - 5 -10.2 -15.8 +5.7
  Nov 28, 2018 144   @ St. Bonaventure L 55-70 20%     1 - 6 -10.6 -10.4 -0.8
  Dec 05, 2018 273   Robert Morris W 68-62 67%     2 - 6 -3.1 -6.7 +3.5
  Dec 16, 2018 315   @ Elon W 92-91 58%     3 - 6 -5.6 +14.3 -20.0
  Dec 20, 2018 226   @ Holy Cross L 63-65 37%     3 - 7 -3.2 -9.0 +5.8
  Dec 29, 2018 29   Buffalo L 72-87 9%     3 - 8 -4.9 +0.0 -4.1
  Jan 03, 2019 244   @ Marist W 75-72 41%     4 - 8 1 - 0 +0.8 +2.6 -1.7
  Jan 05, 2019 247   @ Siena W 70-66 41%     5 - 8 2 - 0 +1.7 -1.5 +3.3
  Jan 08, 2019 155   Brown L 90-97 41%     5 - 9 -9.1 +0.4 -8.1
  Jan 11, 2019 192   Rider L 73-82 50%     5 - 10 2 - 1 -13.7 -8.2 -4.6
  Jan 13, 2019 215   Iona L 70-88 56%     5 - 11 2 - 2 -24.1 -12.1 -10.9
  Jan 17, 2019 214   @ Quinnipiac W 65-63 35%     6 - 11 3 - 2 +1.3 -1.3 +2.9
  Jan 19, 2019 286   @ Fairfield W 73-68 49%     7 - 11 4 - 2 +0.7 -1.2 +1.9
  Jan 24, 2019 260   Monmouth W 80-66 65%     8 - 11 5 - 2 +5.5 +5.3 -0.1
  Jan 30, 2019 298   @ Niagara L 70-78 52%     8 - 12 5 - 3 -13.1 -5.3 -8.2
  Feb 01, 2019 214   Quinnipiac W 75-70 56%     9 - 12 6 - 3 -1.1 +1.1 -1.9
  Feb 04, 2019 244   Marist L 71-78 62%     9 - 13 6 - 4 -14.6 -4.7 -10.2
  Feb 08, 2019 192   @ Rider W 81-80 30%     10 - 13 7 - 4 +1.8 +4.8 -3.0
  Feb 10, 2019 307   @ St. Peter's W 64-60 55%     11 - 13 8 - 4 -1.9 +0.6 -2.0
  Feb 15, 2019 286   Fairfield W 72-68 69%     12 - 13 9 - 4 -5.7 -2.2 -3.4
  Feb 17, 2019 311   Manhattan W 67-60 76%    
  Feb 22, 2019 260   @ Monmouth L 68-69 44%    
  Feb 24, 2019 215   @ Iona L 77-81 35%    
  Feb 27, 2019 298   Niagara W 81-75 72%    
  Mar 01, 2019 247   Siena W 66-63 63%    
Projected Record 14.9 - 15.1 11.9 - 6.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 3.4 27.2 23.2 6.6 60.4 1st
2nd 0.2 11.0 7.7 18.8 2nd
3rd 1.3 8.4 0.1 9.9 3rd
4th 0.0 3.9 2.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.3 3.2 0.1 3.6 5th
6th 0.7 0.4 1.1 6th
7th 0.2 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.2 9.0 25.0 35.0 23.2 6.6 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 6.6    6.6
13-5 100.0% 23.2    19.7 3.5
12-6 77.7% 27.2    6.8 12.5 6.7 1.1 0.0
11-7 13.7% 3.4    0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 60.4% 60.4 33.1 16.2 7.7 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 6.6% 18.8% 18.8% 15.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 5.4
13-5 23.2% 15.8% 15.8% 15.8 0.0 0.9 2.8 19.5
12-6 35.0% 13.3% 13.3% 15.9 0.0 0.4 4.3 30.4
11-7 25.0% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 0.1 2.6 22.3
10-8 9.0% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 8.4
9-9 1.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 2.1 10.7 87.1 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 15.3 7.0 59.9 33.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0%
Lose Out 0.5%