Central Arkansas
Southland
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#278
Achievement Rating-2.6#192
Pace79.3#24
Improvement+1.4#79

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#247
First Shot-3.4#272
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#129
Layup/Dunks-2.0#235
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#63
Freethrows-2.7#302
Improvement+1.7#51

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#286
First Shot-2.5#258
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#259
Layups/Dunks-6.0#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#9
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#206
Freethrows+0.6#148
Improvement-0.3#205
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 6.4% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 19.2% 38.2% 15.7%
.500 or above in Conference 56.4% 68.0% 54.3%
Conference Champion 4.5% 7.1% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.6% 3.7%
First Four1.5% 1.4% 1.5%
First Round3.3% 5.7% 2.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 15.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 83   @ Missouri L 55-68 8%     0 - 1 -3.9 -13.8 +10.1
  Nov 15, 2018 122   @ Pittsburgh L 71-97 11%     0 - 2 -19.4 -3.2 -13.4
  Nov 18, 2018 206   @ Troy L 77-82 26%     0 - 3 -4.7 +1.6 -6.2
  Nov 24, 2018 76   @ Saint Louis L 61-73 7%     0 - 4 -2.4 -4.2 +2.1
  Nov 28, 2018 238   Arkansas Little Rock W 78-65 55%     1 - 4 +5.2 -4.1 +8.3
  Dec 05, 2018 32   @ Louisville L 41-86 3%     1 - 5 -29.8 -26.3 -2.0
  Dec 08, 2018 238   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 85-82 32%     2 - 5 +1.2 +11.8 -10.6
  Dec 16, 2018 146   @ New Mexico L 82-93 16%    
  Dec 19, 2018 23   @ Indiana L 65-88 2%    
  Dec 21, 2018 73   @ Oklahoma St. L 69-85 6%    
  Jan 02, 2019 301   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 05, 2019 288   @ SE Louisiana L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 09, 2019 291   Sam Houston St. W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 12, 2019 230   Lamar W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 16, 2019 339   @ Incarnate Word W 78-75 62%    
  Jan 19, 2019 255   Nicholls St. W 79-77 56%    
  Jan 23, 2019 263   New Orleans W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 26, 2019 164   @ Abilene Christian L 69-78 20%    
  Jan 30, 2019 159   @ Stephen F. Austin L 73-83 20%    
  Feb 02, 2019 347   Northwestern St. W 81-68 87%    
  Feb 09, 2019 288   SE Louisiana W 74-71 62%    
  Feb 13, 2019 284   Houston Baptist W 88-85 62%    
  Feb 20, 2019 310   @ McNeese St. L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 23, 2019 255   @ Nicholls St. L 76-80 35%    
  Feb 27, 2019 159   Stephen F. Austin L 76-80 38%    
  Mar 02, 2019 164   Abilene Christian L 72-75 38%    
  Mar 06, 2019 291   @ Sam Houston St. L 73-75 42%    
  Mar 09, 2019 347   @ Northwestern St. W 78-71 72%    
Projected Record 11.2 - 16.8 9.0 - 9.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 4.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.6 4.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.2 1.9 0.1 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 2.6 0.2 0.0 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 8.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.6 8.6 11.1 12.9 13.5 13.0 11.0 8.3 5.4 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 94.3% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
15-3 78.5% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 48.6% 1.5    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 17.0% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 2.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 45.5% 45.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 34.8% 34.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.5% 32.5% 32.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.5% 27.2% 27.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.1
14-4 3.1% 21.3% 21.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 2.4
13-5 5.4% 16.0% 16.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 4.6
12-6 8.3% 9.5% 9.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 7.5
11-7 11.0% 5.1% 5.1% 15.9 0.0 0.5 10.4
10-8 13.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 12.6
9-9 13.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 13.3
8-10 12.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.8
7-11 11.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.1
6-12 8.6% 8.6
5-13 5.6% 5.6
4-14 3.2% 3.2
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 95.9 0.0%