Central Arkansas
Southland
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#302
Achievement Rating-8.5#288
Pace77.0#31
Improvement-2.5#288

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#274
First Shot-1.4#222
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#313
Layup/Dunks-3.6#297
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#91
Freethrows-0.5#218
Improvement-0.6#219

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#298
First Shot-3.6#285
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#271
Layups/Dunks-1.4#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#286
Freethrows-1.2#253
Improvement-1.9#277
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.2% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 21.1% 36.6% 8.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.0% 0.7%
First Four0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Away) - 45.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 87   @ Missouri L 55-68 7%     0 - 1 -4.4 -13.0 +8.7
  Nov 15, 2018 91   @ Pittsburgh L 71-97 7%     0 - 2 -17.9 -3.6 -11.5
  Nov 18, 2018 237   @ Troy L 77-82 27%     0 - 3 -6.8 -1.1 -5.6
  Nov 24, 2018 123   @ Saint Louis L 61-73 10%     0 - 4 -6.0 -7.1 +1.4
  Nov 28, 2018 206   Arkansas Little Rock W 78-65 40%     1 - 4 +7.6 -3.3 +9.8
  Dec 05, 2018 18   @ Louisville L 41-86 2%     1 - 5 -26.9 -23.6 -1.8
  Dec 08, 2018 206   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 85-82 22%     2 - 5 +3.0 +12.3 -9.3
  Dec 16, 2018 151   @ New Mexico L 70-82 14%     2 - 6 -8.4 -5.3 -2.4
  Dec 19, 2018 46   @ Indiana L 53-86 4%     2 - 7 -20.8 -15.4 -3.6
  Dec 21, 2018 89   @ Oklahoma St. L 73-82 7%     2 - 8 -0.8 +1.9 -2.5
  Jan 02, 2019 275   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 75-87 34%     2 - 9 0 - 1 -15.8 -5.8 -8.7
  Jan 05, 2019 258   @ SE Louisiana W 73-71 31%     3 - 9 1 - 1 -1.0 -0.3 -0.7
  Jan 09, 2019 167   Sam Houston St. L 69-78 31%     3 - 10 1 - 2 -12.0 -7.2 -4.5
  Jan 12, 2019 249   Lamar W 75-68 49%     4 - 10 2 - 2 -0.9 +2.5 -3.0
  Jan 16, 2019 337   @ Incarnate Word W 77-60 59%     5 - 10 3 - 2 +6.7 +0.3 +7.3
  Jan 19, 2019 323   Nicholls St. W 74-68 69%     6 - 10 4 - 2 -7.2 -5.0 -2.2
  Jan 23, 2019 279   New Orleans W 76-71 55%     7 - 10 5 - 2 -4.3 -0.1 -4.4
  Jan 26, 2019 174   @ Abilene Christian L 56-79 17%     7 - 11 5 - 3 -21.0 -17.8 -2.1
  Jan 30, 2019 253   @ Stephen F. Austin L 99-105 30%     7 - 12 5 - 4 -8.7 +9.8 -17.5
  Feb 02, 2019 333   Northwestern St. L 75-80 75%     7 - 13 5 - 5 -20.0 -8.9 -10.7
  Feb 09, 2019 258   SE Louisiana L 67-75 51%     7 - 14 5 - 6 -16.4 -5.4 -11.2
  Feb 13, 2019 289   Houston Baptist L 71-75 57%     7 - 15 5 - 7 -13.9 -14.0 +0.5
  Feb 20, 2019 317   @ McNeese St. L 77-78 45%    
  Feb 23, 2019 323   @ Nicholls St. L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 27, 2019 253   Stephen F. Austin W 76-75 52%    
  Mar 02, 2019 174   Abilene Christian L 71-76 34%    
  Mar 06, 2019 167   @ Sam Houston St. L 68-79 16%    
  Mar 09, 2019 333   @ Northwestern St. W 74-73 55%    
Projected Record 9.5 - 18.5 7.5 - 10.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.3 3rd
4th 0.3 1.3 0.3 1.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 2.3 0.1 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 7.2 1.0 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.9 10.8 4.8 0.1 16.6 7th
8th 0.1 7.5 11.3 0.7 0.0 19.6 8th
9th 1.9 14.0 2.8 0.0 18.7 9th
10th 0.2 8.0 6.3 0.2 14.7 10th
11th 1.9 6.2 0.5 8.6 11th
12th 2.8 1.0 0.0 3.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 4.9 17.2 29.3 27.5 15.7 4.8 0.6 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.6% 6.8% 6.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 4.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 4.7
9-9 15.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 15.4
8-10 27.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.3 27.2
7-11 29.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 29.3
6-12 17.2% 17.2
5-13 4.9% 4.9
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 4.9%