Central Florida
American Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#43
Achievement Rating+11.1#58
Pace62.4#334
Improvement-0.1#188

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#75
First Shot+0.2#178
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#20
Layup/Dunks+0.3#170
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#160
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#245
Freethrows+1.8#85
Improvement+0.3#148

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#29
First Shot+11.0#3
After Offensive Rebounds-4.6#349
Layups/Dunks+2.5#93
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#60
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#168
Freethrows+6.3#3
Improvement-0.4#215
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 7.7% 7.8% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.2% 69.4% 44.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.7% 62.9% 37.8%
Average Seed 7.8 7.8 9.2
.500 or above 99.5% 99.5% 95.4%
.500 or above in Conference 91.1% 91.2% 81.4%
Conference Champion 20.6% 20.7% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four5.6% 5.6% 8.0%
First Round66.2% 66.4% 39.7%
Second Round34.4% 34.5% 17.5%
Sweet Sixteen11.5% 11.6% 3.5%
Elite Eight4.1% 4.1% 1.1%
Final Four1.4% 1.4% 0.5%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 125   Rider W 84-70 83%     1 - 0 +14.2 +1.6 +11.4
  Nov 11, 2018 209   Florida Atlantic L 79-80 93%     1 - 1 -6.9 +5.0 -11.8
  Nov 15, 2018 167   Cal St. Fullerton W 68-52 84%     2 - 1 +15.5 +0.4 +15.8
  Nov 16, 2018 103   Saint Joseph's W 77-57 70%     3 - 1 +24.9 +14.3 +13.1
  Nov 18, 2018 85   Western Kentucky W 78-62 67%     4 - 1 +21.9 +9.5 +13.0
  Nov 24, 2018 127   Northern Kentucky W 66-53 83%     5 - 1 +13.0 -2.7 +16.5
  Nov 29, 2018 62   Alabama W 70-64 70%     6 - 1 +10.9 +2.2 +8.8
  Dec 02, 2018 83   @ Missouri L 62-64 55%     6 - 2 +7.1 +4.2 +2.6
  Dec 08, 2018 287   Grambling St. W 70-45 96%     7 - 2 +15.0 -1.7 +18.4
  Dec 11, 2018 130   Georgia Southern W 95-88 84%     8 - 2 +6.8 +12.6 -6.3
  Dec 16, 2018 338   Stetson W 82-56 99%    
  Dec 21, 2018 150   Illinois St. W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 02, 2019 68   Temple W 69-63 72%    
  Jan 05, 2019 78   @ Connecticut W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 13, 2019 259   East Carolina W 76-57 96%    
  Jan 16, 2019 115   @ Wichita St. W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 19, 2019 120   Tulsa W 71-61 81%    
  Jan 23, 2019 212   @ Tulane W 72-62 83%    
  Jan 27, 2019 116   @ Memphis W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 31, 2019 78   Connecticut W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 07, 2019 33   Houston W 62-61 55%    
  Feb 10, 2019 114   @ SMU W 67-64 61%    
  Feb 13, 2019 193   South Florida W 70-55 91%    
  Feb 16, 2019 116   Memphis W 76-67 80%    
  Feb 21, 2019 25   @ Cincinnati L 58-64 31%    
  Feb 24, 2019 114   SMU W 70-61 79%    
  Feb 27, 2019 193   @ South Florida W 67-58 79%    
  Mar 02, 2019 33   @ Houston L 59-64 34%    
  Mar 07, 2019 25   Cincinnati W 62-61 52%    
  Mar 09, 2019 68   @ Temple W 66-65 51%    
Projected Record 21.8 - 8.2 11.9 - 6.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.4 6.5 4.3 1.6 0.3 20.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.5 7.9 6.2 2.0 0.2 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 7.8 5.0 1.0 0.0 17.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.8 6.6 3.7 0.5 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.7 3.0 0.3 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.6 7.6 10.8 14.0 15.6 15.5 12.6 8.5 4.5 1.6 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
16-2 95.3% 4.3    3.7 0.6 0.0
15-3 76.5% 6.5    4.1 2.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 42.9% 5.4    2.2 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.8% 2.1    0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.6% 20.6 12.3 6.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 99.7% 49.5% 50.2% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
17-1 1.6% 99.6% 43.3% 56.3% 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
16-2 4.5% 99.3% 37.5% 61.8% 4.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
15-3 8.5% 98.1% 31.3% 66.7% 5.5 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.2%
14-4 12.6% 95.1% 25.3% 69.8% 6.8 0.0 0.7 1.8 2.7 2.9 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 93.5%
13-5 15.5% 89.1% 21.3% 67.8% 8.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.2 3.2 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 86.2%
12-6 15.6% 79.3% 16.0% 63.4% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 3.4 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.2 75.4%
11-7 14.0% 63.7% 11.6% 52.1% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 2.4 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.1 58.9%
10-8 10.8% 44.6% 8.1% 36.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.0 39.7%
9-9 7.6% 26.5% 6.1% 20.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.6 21.7%
8-10 4.6% 8.5% 3.7% 4.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.2 5.0%
7-11 2.4% 3.3% 2.9% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.4%
6-12 1.2% 2.5% 2.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 69.2% 17.4% 51.8% 7.8 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.5 5.8 7.1 9.4 9.4 11.0 9.0 6.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 30.8 62.7%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 57.2 39.0 3.1 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.2 13.5 55.4 29.7 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 98.2% 2.5 3.5 52.6 33.3 7.0 1.8