Central Florida
American Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#52
Achievement Rating+11.6#44
Pace63.5#315
Improvement-1.6#260

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#60
First Shot+2.4#108
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#61
Layup/Dunks+2.3#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#255
Freethrows+2.7#32
Improvement-1.2#248

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#46
First Shot+8.3#8
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#353
Layups/Dunks+4.8#23
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#149
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#172
Freethrows+2.8#18
Improvement-0.4#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.5% 82.3% 63.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.3% 79.3% 58.6%
Average Seed 10.0 9.6 10.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 1.4% 3.9% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four19.0% 15.7% 20.2%
First Round58.3% 74.0% 52.1%
Second Round21.7% 29.7% 18.5%
Sweet Sixteen4.2% 5.9% 3.5%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.7% 1.0%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 28.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 192   Rider W 84-70 90%     1 - 0 +9.3 +1.8 +6.3
  Nov 11, 2018 175   Florida Atlantic L 79-80 88%     1 - 1 -4.4 +7.9 -12.3
  Nov 15, 2018 161   Cal St. Fullerton W 68-52 81%     2 - 1 +16.1 +0.5 +16.3
  Nov 16, 2018 184   Saint Joseph's W 77-57 84%     3 - 1 +18.7 +12.3 +9.0
  Nov 18, 2018 121   Western Kentucky W 78-62 71%     4 - 1 +19.4 +10.8 +9.2
  Nov 24, 2018 105   Northern Kentucky W 66-53 76%     5 - 1 +14.8 -3.6 +19.2
  Nov 29, 2018 45   Alabama W 70-64 59%     6 - 1 +12.8 +2.3 +10.7
  Dec 02, 2018 87   @ Missouri L 62-64 52%     6 - 2 +6.6 +5.0 +1.2
  Dec 08, 2018 276   Grambling St. W 70-45 95%     7 - 2 +15.8 +1.8 +15.6
  Dec 11, 2018 127   Georgia Southern W 95-88 80%     8 - 2 +7.3 +13.7 -6.9
  Dec 16, 2018 338   Stetson W 90-65 98%     9 - 2 +9.0 +5.0 +3.0
  Dec 21, 2018 157   Illinois St. W 77-56 86%     10 - 2 +18.5 +10.5 +10.2
  Jan 02, 2019 68   Temple W 78-73 68%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +9.3 +10.3 -0.8
  Jan 05, 2019 85   @ Connecticut W 65-53 52%     12 - 2 2 - 0 +20.7 +0.8 +20.9
  Jan 13, 2019 266   East Carolina W 76-65 94%     13 - 2 3 - 0 +2.2 -1.9 +3.7
  Jan 16, 2019 112   @ Wichita St. L 67-75 59%     13 - 3 3 - 1 -1.3 +5.0 -7.1
  Jan 19, 2019 98   Tulsa W 64-62 74%     14 - 3 4 - 1 +4.4 -4.5 +8.9
  Jan 23, 2019 285   @ Tulane W 75-50 89%     15 - 3 5 - 1 +20.8 +0.8 +19.5
  Jan 27, 2019 76   @ Memphis L 57-77 50%     15 - 4 5 - 2 -10.8 -10.3 -1.1
  Jan 31, 2019 85   Connecticut W 73-67 71%     16 - 4 6 - 2 +9.3 +5.9 +3.8
  Feb 07, 2019 21   Houston L 68-77 40%     16 - 5 6 - 3 +2.8 +2.8 +0.0
  Feb 10, 2019 103   @ SMU W 71-65 57%     17 - 5 7 - 3 +13.4 +4.4 +9.6
  Feb 13, 2019 118   South Florida W 78-65 78%     18 - 5 8 - 3 +14.0 +16.0 -0.8
  Feb 16, 2019 76   Memphis W 79-72 70%     19 - 5 9 - 3 +10.7 +3.7 +6.7
  Feb 21, 2019 31   @ Cincinnati L 61-67 28%    
  Feb 24, 2019 103   SMU W 72-65 76%    
  Feb 27, 2019 118   @ South Florida W 66-63 59%    
  Mar 02, 2019 21   @ Houston L 61-69 22%    
  Mar 07, 2019 31   Cincinnati L 63-64 50%    
  Mar 09, 2019 68   @ Temple L 68-69 47%    
Projected Record 21.8 - 8.2 11.8 - 6.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 0.6 1.4 1st
2nd 0.1 3.6 10.9 6.1 0.4 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 6.7 20.1 9.0 0.3 36.3 3rd
4th 0.1 6.4 18.6 7.6 0.3 32.9 4th
5th 0.7 4.6 0.9 6.2 5th
6th 1.0 0.8 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.4 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 2.2 11.9 26.3 31.3 20.2 7.2 1.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 62.6% 0.6    0.1 0.5
14-4 9.8% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.0% 99.3% 22.1% 77.2% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
14-4 7.2% 97.6% 19.3% 78.3% 8.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.0%
13-5 20.2% 89.8% 16.2% 73.7% 9.6 0.1 0.9 2.6 4.9 5.4 3.4 0.8 0.1 2.1 87.9%
12-6 31.3% 77.0% 12.3% 64.7% 10.2 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.5 7.4 7.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.2 73.8%
11-7 26.3% 55.2% 8.9% 46.4% 10.7 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.6 5.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 11.8 50.9%
10-8 11.9% 29.8% 6.4% 23.4% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.3 25.0%
9-9 2.2% 11.1% 3.5% 7.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9 7.8%
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 68.5% 11.9% 56.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.5 6.7 13.2 18.4 18.4 7.5 1.2 0.0 31.5 64.3%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 5.2 7.8 14.1 43.8 20.3 10.9 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 7.5 1.4 15.3 38.9 25.0 15.3 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 98.8% 7.8 3.5 8.2 27.1 38.8 15.3 3.5 2.4
Lose Out 0.6%