Central Michigan
Mid-American
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#147
Achievement Rating+3.9#120
Pace75.6#48
Improvement+1.3#126

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#76
First Shot+1.8#133
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#52
Layup/Dunks+3.4#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#307
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#224
Freethrows+2.2#48
Improvement+2.7#53

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#240
First Shot-1.9#229
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#235
Layups/Dunks-5.5#342
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#145
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#113
Freethrows+1.6#75
Improvement-1.4#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.7% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 98.8% 100.0% 96.9%
.500 or above in Conference 64.4% 79.2% 42.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.2% 2.7% 1.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Home) - 59.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 351   Chicago St. W 101-60 98%     1 - 0 +18.3 +7.0 +7.1
  Nov 15, 2018 200   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-55 64%     2 - 0 +9.6 -8.6 +18.1
  Nov 16, 2018 166   Weber St. L 76-78 56%     2 - 1 -2.2 -3.1 +1.0
  Nov 18, 2018 338   San Jose St. W 76-74 91%     3 - 1 -11.1 +0.1 -11.2
  Nov 28, 2018 173   @ Sam Houston St. W 81-65 47%     4 - 1 +18.3 +4.6 +12.7
  Nov 30, 2018 37   @ TCU L 62-89 12%     4 - 2 -13.0 -8.4 -2.6
  Dec 04, 2018 283   @ Youngstown St. W 100-94 70%     5 - 2 +2.0 -6.0 +6.2
  Dec 08, 2018 279   Southern Utah W 95-86 84%     6 - 2 -0.4 +13.1 -14.1
  Dec 19, 2018 229   UMKC W 81-72 78%     7 - 2 +2.1 +4.7 -2.6
  Dec 22, 2018 333   Jackson St. W 81-72 93%     8 - 2 -5.8 +4.6 -10.5
  Jan 05, 2019 144   @ Miami (OH) W 84-77 38%     9 - 2 1 - 0 +11.5 +8.7 +2.4
  Jan 08, 2019 126   Akron W 88-86 54%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +2.5 +14.7 -12.4
  Jan 12, 2019 100   Bowling Green L 87-97 47%     10 - 3 2 - 1 -7.8 -0.4 -5.6
  Jan 15, 2019 150   @ Northern Illinois W 78-69 42%     11 - 3 3 - 1 +12.5 +4.4 +8.0
  Jan 19, 2019 120   Ball St. L 72-83 52%     11 - 4 3 - 2 -10.1 -1.9 -7.8
  Jan 22, 2019 126   @ Akron L 67-70 33%     11 - 5 3 - 3 +3.0 -0.3 +3.4
  Jan 26, 2019 67   @ Toledo L 72-76 21%     11 - 6 3 - 4 +5.9 +0.9 +5.1
  Jan 29, 2019 149   Eastern Michigan W 86-82 61%     12 - 6 4 - 4 +2.4 +21.4 -18.6
  Feb 02, 2019 263   Western Michigan W 85-64 83%     13 - 6 5 - 4 +12.4 +5.8 +6.2
  Feb 09, 2019 28   @ Buffalo L 76-90 10%     13 - 7 5 - 5 +1.7 -0.1 +3.7
  Feb 12, 2019 100   @ Bowling Green L 72-79 27%     13 - 8 5 - 6 +0.7 +1.4 -0.6
  Feb 16, 2019 209   Ohio W 87-80 75%     14 - 8 6 - 6 +1.4 +6.0 -5.4
  Feb 19, 2019 142   Kent St. W 81-79 60%    
  Feb 23, 2019 120   @ Ball St. L 77-82 31%    
  Feb 26, 2019 149   @ Eastern Michigan L 70-73 39%    
  Mar 02, 2019 67   Toledo L 77-80 40%    
  Mar 05, 2019 150   Northern Illinois W 79-76 63%    
  Mar 08, 2019 263   @ Western Michigan W 81-77 66%    
Projected Record 17.0 - 11.0 9.0 - 9.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.2 1.3 5.3 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 11.4 5.8 0.3 19.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 13.6 9.7 0.6 24.8 5th
6th 0.1 6.0 11.6 0.8 18.5 6th
7th 0.8 10.7 2.7 0.0 14.3 7th
8th 0.0 3.8 5.1 0.1 9.1 8th
9th 0.5 4.2 0.6 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 1.4 1.1 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 2.0 10.1 23.5 29.9 22.8 9.7 1.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.9% 6.4% 6.4% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8
11-7 9.7% 5.0% 5.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.3
10-8 22.8% 3.1% 3.1% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 22.1
9-9 29.9% 2.0% 2.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 29.4
8-10 23.5% 1.0% 1.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 23.3
7-11 10.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0
6-12 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.3 13.2 47.1 36.4 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 1.3%