Cincinnati
American Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.5#29
Achievement Rating+14.2#34
Pace61.3#346
Improvement+0.4#142

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#68
First Shot+0.3#182
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#19
Layup/Dunks+0.2#172
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#85
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#284
Freethrows+1.7#95
Improvement-0.2#195

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#9
First Shot+7.7#12
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#141
Layups/Dunks+4.0#52
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#224
Freethrows+1.6#89
Improvement+0.7#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 19.2% 23.6% 9.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.9% 88.9% 75.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.7% 84.0% 67.0%
Average Seed 6.7 6.4 7.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 97.6% 95.7%
Conference Champion 38.3% 40.5% 32.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.7% 2.7% 6.0%
First Round83.0% 87.5% 72.6%
Second Round51.2% 56.3% 39.1%
Sweet Sixteen22.5% 25.4% 15.7%
Elite Eight9.3% 10.7% 5.9%
Final Four3.5% 4.1% 2.0%
Championship Game1.3% 1.6% 0.6%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.3%

Next Game: UCLA (Home) - 70.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 19   Ohio St. L 56-64 59%     0 - 1 +2.2 -0.2 +0.8
  Nov 13, 2018 322   NC Central W 73-51 98%     1 - 1 +8.9 +5.8 +6.6
  Nov 16, 2018 282   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-63 97%     2 - 1 +1.3 +5.1 -2.7
  Nov 19, 2018 201   Western Michigan W 78-52 94%     3 - 1 +20.7 +2.0 +18.5
  Nov 23, 2018 170   George Mason W 71-55 88%     4 - 1 +15.5 +3.1 +13.5
  Nov 24, 2018 61   Mississippi W 71-57 67%     5 - 1 +21.9 +8.3 +15.3
  Nov 27, 2018 324   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 105-49 98%     6 - 1 +42.4 +16.8 +20.2
  Dec 01, 2018 129   @ UNLV W 65-61 73%     7 - 1 +9.9 +1.9 +8.4
  Dec 04, 2018 127   Northern Kentucky W 78-65 87%     8 - 1 +13.0 +12.7 +1.5
  Dec 08, 2018 57   Xavier W 62-47 74%     9 - 1 +20.7 +0.9 +22.5
  Dec 15, 2018 14   @ Mississippi St. L 59-70 31%     9 - 2 +6.5 +2.1 +3.1
  Dec 19, 2018 49   UCLA W 70-64 70%    
  Dec 22, 2018 343   South Carolina St. W 81-52 99.8%   
  Jan 02, 2019 216   Tulane W 75-56 96%    
  Jan 05, 2019 263   @ East Carolina W 72-57 92%    
  Jan 10, 2019 123   @ Tulsa W 67-61 72%    
  Jan 12, 2019 84   Connecticut W 73-64 80%    
  Jan 15, 2019 180   South Florida W 70-53 94%    
  Jan 19, 2019 117   @ Wichita St. W 67-61 70%    
  Jan 24, 2019 123   Tulsa W 70-58 87%    
  Jan 27, 2019 78   @ Temple W 65-62 59%    
  Feb 02, 2019 101   SMU W 69-59 83%    
  Feb 07, 2019 114   @ Memphis W 74-69 69%    
  Feb 10, 2019 31   @ Houston L 59-62 41%    
  Feb 17, 2019 117   Wichita St. W 70-58 85%    
  Feb 21, 2019 42   Central Florida W 64-59 68%    
  Feb 24, 2019 84   @ Connecticut W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 27, 2019 101   @ SMU W 66-62 65%    
  Mar 02, 2019 114   Memphis W 77-66 84%    
  Mar 07, 2019 42   @ Central Florida L 61-62 47%    
  Mar 10, 2019 31   Houston W 62-59 63%    
Projected Record 23.9 - 7.1 13.2 - 4.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 3.2 8.3 11.6 9.4 4.3 1.1 38.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.1 9.0 8.2 2.8 0.4 25.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 6.5 4.2 0.8 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.9 0.3 5.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 1.5 0.3 3.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.4 6.2 10.0 13.7 16.8 17.3 14.5 9.7 4.3 1.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 100.0% 4.3    4.2 0.1
16-2 96.3% 9.4    8.1 1.3 0.0
15-3 80.4% 11.6    8.1 3.4 0.2
14-4 47.9% 8.3    3.9 3.5 0.9 0.0
13-5 19.1% 3.2    0.6 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 38.3% 38.3 25.8 9.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 100.0% 64.2% 35.8% 1.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
17-1 4.3% 99.5% 48.6% 50.9% 2.8 0.4 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
16-2 9.7% 99.7% 45.9% 53.8% 3.9 0.0 1.1 3.0 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
15-3 14.5% 98.3% 38.2% 60.1% 5.2 0.1 1.5 3.7 3.7 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.3%
14-4 17.3% 95.7% 32.9% 62.8% 6.5 0.2 1.5 3.1 3.9 3.5 2.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.7 93.6%
13-5 16.8% 92.0% 26.7% 65.3% 7.7 0.2 1.1 2.4 3.7 3.6 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.2 1.3 89.1%
12-6 13.7% 84.1% 23.0% 61.1% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.4 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.2 79.3%
11-7 10.0% 74.6% 17.6% 56.9% 9.5 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.6 69.1%
10-8 6.2% 50.2% 11.9% 38.4% 10.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.1 43.5%
9-9 3.4% 32.4% 6.5% 26.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.3 27.8%
8-10 1.8% 16.5% 9.3% 7.1% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 7.9%
7-11 0.8% 2.7% 1.3% 1.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.4%
6-12 0.3% 6.5% 6.5% 14.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 84.9% 29.0% 55.8% 6.7 0.9 3.2 6.2 9.0 9.9 10.3 11.6 10.7 9.4 7.5 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 15.1 78.7%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.4 72.2 20.4 5.6 1.9