Cincinnati
American Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#31
Achievement Rating+15.9#27
Pace61.6#337
Improvement-1.7#256

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#39
First Shot+1.8#135
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#4
Layup/Dunks+0.0#172
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#242
Freethrows+2.2#46
Improvement-0.3#202

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#28
First Shot+5.3#39
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#67
Layups/Dunks+4.1#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#316
Freethrows+2.3#37
Improvement-1.4#260
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.4% 5.9% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.8% 99.4% 97.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.4% 99.2% 96.5%
Average Seed 7.7 7.4 8.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 15.8% 20.3% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.0% 1.5% 6.9%
First Round97.4% 98.7% 94.0%
Second Round54.3% 57.1% 47.1%
Sweet Sixteen15.7% 17.5% 11.3%
Elite Eight5.6% 6.3% 4.0%
Final Four1.6% 1.8% 1.1%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Central Florida (Home) - 71.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 41   Ohio St. L 56-64 66%     0 - 1 +0.0 +0.1 -1.7
  Nov 13, 2018 309   NC Central W 73-51 98%     1 - 1 +10.5 +7.7 +6.4
  Nov 16, 2018 304   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-63 97%     2 - 1 -0.1 +3.1 -2.0
  Nov 19, 2018 263   Western Michigan W 78-52 96%     3 - 1 +17.4 -0.1 +17.3
  Nov 23, 2018 139   George Mason W 71-55 84%     4 - 1 +17.8 +4.5 +14.4
  Nov 24, 2018 38   Mississippi W 71-57 55%     5 - 1 +25.0 +11.3 +15.4
  Nov 27, 2018 330   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 105-49 98%     6 - 1 +41.9 +16.2 +20.3
  Dec 01, 2018 151   @ UNLV W 65-61 80%     7 - 1 +7.5 -2.0 +9.9
  Dec 04, 2018 106   Northern Kentucky W 78-65 84%     8 - 1 +14.7 +12.0 +4.0
  Dec 08, 2018 82   Xavier W 62-47 80%     9 - 1 +18.3 +0.4 +20.6
  Dec 15, 2018 23   @ Mississippi St. L 59-70 32%     9 - 2 +6.1 +0.0 +4.8
  Dec 19, 2018 94   UCLA W 93-64 82%     10 - 2 +31.5 +24.2 +7.9
  Dec 22, 2018 343   South Carolina St. W 77-56 99%     11 - 2 +3.5 -5.1 +8.9
  Jan 02, 2019 290   Tulane W 93-61 97%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +22.0 +19.6 +3.1
  Jan 05, 2019 267   @ East Carolina L 71-73 92%     12 - 3 1 - 1 -5.2 +0.7 -6.0
  Jan 10, 2019 96   @ Tulsa W 70-65 67%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +12.8 +0.1 +12.6
  Jan 12, 2019 83   Connecticut W 74-72 80%     14 - 3 3 - 1 +5.3 +0.1 +5.1
  Jan 15, 2019 118   South Florida W 82-74 85%     15 - 3 4 - 1 +9.0 +13.4 -4.4
  Jan 19, 2019 112   @ Wichita St. W 66-55 70%     16 - 3 5 - 1 +17.9 +6.8 +12.6
  Jan 24, 2019 96   Tulsa W 88-64 83%     17 - 3 6 - 1 +26.3 +19.6 +7.3
  Jan 27, 2019 70   @ Temple W 72-68 60%     18 - 3 7 - 1 +13.8 +7.4 +6.5
  Feb 02, 2019 104   SMU W 73-68 83%     19 - 3 8 - 1 +6.9 +3.9 +3.5
  Feb 07, 2019 76   @ Memphis W 69-64 62%     20 - 3 9 - 1 +14.2 +5.4 +9.2
  Feb 10, 2019 20   @ Houston L 58-65 30%     20 - 4 9 - 2 +10.7 +8.6 +0.5
  Feb 17, 2019 112   Wichita St. W 72-62 85%     21 - 4 10 - 2 +11.3 -1.1 +12.1
  Feb 21, 2019 52   Central Florida W 67-61 72%    
  Feb 24, 2019 83   @ Connecticut W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 27, 2019 104   @ SMU W 70-65 67%    
  Mar 02, 2019 76   Memphis W 78-69 80%    
  Mar 07, 2019 52   @ Central Florida W 64-63 50%    
  Mar 10, 2019 20   Houston W 65-64 51%    
Projected Record 24.8 - 6.2 13.8 - 4.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 6.9 7.7 15.8 1st
2nd 0.0 3.5 19.7 29.4 16.1 68.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 6.5 4.3 0.1 11.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 1.2 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.3 2.9 11.3 24.1 30.7 23.0 7.7 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 7.7    2.8 4.9
15-3 30.0% 6.9    1.2 5.7
14-4 3.7% 1.1    0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 15.8% 15.8 4.1 11.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 7.7% 100.0% 35.5% 64.5% 5.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 23.0% 99.9% 31.3% 68.6% 6.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 5.8 6.6 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 30.7% 99.6% 26.7% 72.9% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.9 8.6 8.3 6.0 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
13-5 24.1% 99.0% 24.0% 75.0% 8.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.2 6.5 6.6 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 98.7%
12-6 11.3% 96.7% 18.3% 78.4% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 3.1 2.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 95.9%
11-7 2.9% 89.7% 15.2% 74.5% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.3 87.9%
10-8 0.3% 61.7% 10.4% 51.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 57.3%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.8% 26.5% 72.4% 7.7 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.6 5.3 12.5 21.2 21.4 18.2 10.6 4.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.2 98.4%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 3.4 0.1 15.2 41.4 30.0 11.1 2.0 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0% 100.0% 5.4 0.1 4.8 17.4 32.2 28.3 14.2 2.6 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5% 100.0% 5.9 1.4 10.9 24.7 34.3 20.2 7.4 1.0 0.1 0.1
Lose Out 0.0% 5.0% 11.0 5.0