Coastal Carolina
Sun Belt
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#158
Achievement Rating-1.4#187
Pace70.6#135
Improvement+1.9#88

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#184
First Shot+0.7#163
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#231
Layup/Dunks-2.1#254
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#213
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#102
Freethrows+1.4#81
Improvement-0.6#217

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#164
First Shot+1.7#116
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#296
Layups/Dunks+3.9#37
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#225
Freethrows-1.9#294
Improvement+2.5#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 9.9% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 54.2% 70.8% 38.5%
.500 or above in Conference 83.0% 94.1% 72.7%
Conference Champion 2.2% 4.0% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round8.1% 9.9% 6.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Away) - 48.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 211   @ Campbell W 85-75 52%     1 - 0 +9.7 +7.1 +2.3
  Nov 13, 2018 285   @ Tulane L 76-81 67%     1 - 1 -9.2 -3.2 -5.6
  Nov 16, 2018 311   Manhattan L 53-55 81%     1 - 2 -10.9 -14.3 +3.2
  Nov 17, 2018 341   UNC Asheville W 78-52 90%     2 - 2 +12.2 +1.9 +11.7
  Nov 18, 2018 105   @ Northern Kentucky L 83-89 25%     2 - 3 +1.2 +11.1 -9.8
  Nov 30, 2018 72   @ South Carolina L 79-85 19%     2 - 4 +3.4 +2.2 +1.8
  Dec 05, 2018 230   Hampton W 75-66 76%     3 - 4 +2.0 -0.9 +3.2
  Dec 09, 2018 38   @ Wofford L 71-82 11%     3 - 5 +2.8 +3.0 -0.4
  Dec 16, 2018 314   NC Central W 69-65 87%     4 - 5 -8.0 -5.8 -2.1
  Dec 21, 2018 128   @ College of Charleston L 71-73 30%     4 - 6 +3.7 +1.3 +2.3
  Jan 03, 2019 237   @ Troy W 88-75 58%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +11.2 +10.1 +0.9
  Jan 05, 2019 218   @ South Alabama L 77-84 54%     5 - 7 1 - 1 -7.7 -9.4 +2.9
  Jan 10, 2019 124   Texas St. L 61-65 49%     5 - 8 1 - 2 -3.5 -6.6 +2.9
  Jan 12, 2019 166   Texas Arlington L 58-61 62%     5 - 9 1 - 3 -5.9 -8.0 +1.9
  Jan 19, 2019 199   Appalachian St. W 89-72 69%     6 - 9 2 - 3 +12.0 +5.6 +5.3
  Jan 24, 2019 206   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 72-71 51%     7 - 9 3 - 3 +1.0 +1.0 +0.0
  Jan 26, 2019 267   @ Arkansas St. W 77-64 64%     8 - 9 4 - 3 +9.7 -3.8 +12.6
  Jan 31, 2019 154   Louisiana Monroe W 92-81 59%     9 - 9 5 - 3 +8.9 +19.8 -10.1
  Feb 02, 2019 190   Louisiana W 96-79 68%     10 - 9 6 - 3 +12.4 +9.9 +1.0
  Feb 07, 2019 166   @ Texas Arlington L 54-74 41%     10 - 10 6 - 4 -17.5 -12.5 -5.7
  Feb 09, 2019 124   @ Texas St. L 57-65 29%     10 - 11 6 - 5 -2.0 -8.1 +5.6
  Feb 16, 2019 199   @ Appalachian St. L 78-79 48%    
  Feb 21, 2019 127   Georgia Southern L 79-80 50%    
  Feb 23, 2019 130   Georgia St. W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 28, 2019 190   @ Louisiana L 79-80 46%    
  Mar 02, 2019 154   @ Louisiana Monroe L 74-77 37%    
  Mar 07, 2019 218   South Alabama W 74-68 74%    
  Mar 09, 2019 237   Troy W 78-71 77%    
Projected Record 13.8 - 14.2 9.8 - 8.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 1.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 2.3 5.5 1.0 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 8.5 2.6 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 7.7 8.3 0.4 16.8 4th
5th 0.4 7.5 14.1 2.0 24.0 5th
6th 0.1 4.6 12.5 4.1 0.1 21.3 6th
7th 0.7 6.0 2.4 0.1 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 1.6 0.1 3.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 0.1 1.3 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 0.4 10th
11th 0.2 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.6 3.7 12.7 22.9 27.3 21.3 9.6 2.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 49.4% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 11.5% 1.1    0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 2.0% 20.8% 20.8% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.6
12-6 9.6% 16.5% 16.5% 14.5 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.0 8.0
11-7 21.3% 12.4% 12.4% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.2 18.7
10-8 27.3% 7.1% 7.1% 15.1 0.2 1.4 0.3 25.3
9-9 22.9% 4.6% 4.6% 15.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 21.9
8-10 12.7% 3.5% 3.5% 15.6 0.2 0.3 12.3
7-11 3.7% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.6
6-12 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.1 1.2 91.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.4 4.0 50.4 42.4 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 0.3%