Colgate
Patriot League
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#165
Achievement Rating+2.8#142
Pace66.9#255
Improvement+0.4#145

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#155
First Shot+3.0#94
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#313
Layup/Dunks+2.1#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#44
Freethrows-0.4#200
Improvement-2.5#339

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#195
First Shot+1.0#139
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#293
Layups/Dunks+0.3#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#157
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#173
Freethrows+0.3#164
Improvement+2.9#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.8% 17.2% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 86.0% 90.8% 75.2%
.500 or above in Conference 83.2% 85.3% 78.4%
Conference Champion 19.7% 21.8% 15.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.9% 1.6%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 0.9%
First Round15.5% 17.0% 12.3%
Second Round1.1% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Home) - 68.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 200   @ NJIT L 78-81 47%     0 - 1 -2.4 +12.4 -15.1
  Nov 09, 2018 306   Monmouth W 87-74 85%     1 - 1 +1.8 +6.3 -5.3
  Nov 11, 2018 231   @ Cornell W 73-57 53%     2 - 1 +14.8 -3.8 +17.8
  Nov 19, 2018 326   Binghamton W 76-68 89%     3 - 1 -5.9 -1.1 -4.5
  Nov 21, 2018 31   @ Syracuse L 56-77 8%     3 - 2 -5.7 -3.9 -3.3
  Nov 24, 2018 269   @ Siena W 84-79 60%     4 - 2 +2.0 +11.9 -9.5
  Nov 30, 2018 192   @ South Florida L 63-73 44%     4 - 3 -8.9 -5.9 -3.1
  Dec 02, 2018 240   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 74-56 56%     5 - 3 +16.2 +0.6 +15.8
  Dec 05, 2018 249   @ Columbia W 64-62 57%     6 - 3 -0.1 -7.7 +7.8
  Dec 08, 2018 54   @ Penn St. L 65-76 12%     6 - 4 +1.2 +1.1 +0.2
  Dec 15, 2018 205   Marist W 70-65 69%    
  Dec 29, 2018 121   @ Pittsburgh L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 03, 2019 313   @ Navy W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 06, 2019 194   American W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 09, 2019 160   @ Bucknell L 71-74 38%    
  Jan 12, 2019 149   Lehigh W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 16, 2019 270   @ Army W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 19, 2019 186   @ Boston University L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 23, 2019 316   Lafayette W 78-66 87%    
  Jan 26, 2019 299   @ Loyola Maryland W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 30, 2019 270   Army W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 02, 2019 186   Boston University W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 04, 2019 149   @ Lehigh L 74-78 36%    
  Feb 09, 2019 299   Loyola Maryland W 78-68 83%    
  Feb 13, 2019 155   @ Holy Cross L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 16, 2019 194   @ American L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 19, 2019 160   Bucknell W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 23, 2019 313   Navy W 73-61 85%    
  Feb 27, 2019 155   Holy Cross W 68-66 58%    
  Mar 02, 2019 316   @ Lafayette W 75-69 71%    
Projected Record 18.0 - 12.0 11.0 - 7.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.1 5.8 4.8 2.6 0.8 0.2 19.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.1 6.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 6.5 5.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 16.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 6.0 5.0 1.2 0.1 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.0 4.3 0.9 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.1 0.7 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.8 7.4 10.6 13.4 14.6 14.4 12.3 8.8 5.4 2.6 0.8 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 98.3% 2.6    2.4 0.1
15-3 89.4% 4.8    3.8 0.9 0.0
14-4 66.0% 5.8    3.4 2.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 33.2% 4.1    1.4 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 9.1% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.7% 19.7 12.2 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 52.6% 50.7% 2.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.0%
17-1 0.8% 41.8% 41.2% 0.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.0%
16-2 2.6% 39.3% 39.3% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.6 0.1%
15-3 5.4% 32.8% 32.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.6
14-4 8.8% 28.3% 28.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.0 6.3
13-5 12.3% 22.6% 22.6% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.1 9.5
12-6 14.4% 18.1% 18.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.2 11.8
11-7 14.6% 13.5% 13.5% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.4 12.7
10-8 13.4% 10.1% 10.1% 15.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 12.1
9-9 10.6% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 9.8
8-10 7.4% 5.0% 5.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 7.1
7-11 4.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.7
6-12 2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 2.6
5-13 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 5.2 6.1 2.1 84.2 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 11.6 14.8 22.2 55.6 7.4