Colgate
Patriot League
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#153
Achievement Rating+1.8#144
Pace65.7#271
Improvement+0.2#178

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#102
First Shot+3.8#61
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#250
Layup/Dunks+4.1#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#64
Freethrows-1.7#294
Improvement+0.5#164

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#234
First Shot-1.0#204
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#281
Layups/Dunks-1.7#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#219
Freethrows+1.1#103
Improvement-0.3#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.2% 25.2% 20.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 11.4% 19.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round23.2% 25.1% 20.5%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 57.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 197   @ NJIT L 78-81 50%     0 - 1 -2.4 +14.1 -16.7
  Nov 09, 2018 271   Monmouth W 87-74 82%     1 - 1 +4.0 +8.3 -5.1
  Nov 11, 2018 210   @ Cornell W 73-57 53%     2 - 1 +15.8 -3.6 +18.6
  Nov 19, 2018 336   Binghamton W 76-68 92%     3 - 1 -7.2 -1.1 -5.9
  Nov 21, 2018 40   @ Syracuse L 56-77 11%     3 - 2 -7.3 -3.9 -4.9
  Nov 24, 2018 251   @ Siena W 84-79 62%     4 - 2 +2.4 +16.2 -13.5
  Nov 30, 2018 118   @ South Florida L 63-73 28%     4 - 3 -3.4 -2.0 -1.6
  Dec 02, 2018 230   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 74-56 58%     5 - 3 +16.5 +2.3 +14.5
  Dec 05, 2018 237   @ Columbia W 64-62 59%     6 - 3 +0.2 -4.1 +4.5
  Dec 08, 2018 57   @ Penn St. L 65-76 17%     6 - 4 -0.2 -1.0 +0.8
  Dec 15, 2018 235   Marist W 82-66 77%     7 - 4 +8.8 +2.7 +5.7
  Dec 29, 2018 91   @ Pittsburgh L 54-68 23%     7 - 5 -5.8 -10.4 +3.9
  Jan 03, 2019 301   @ Navy L 66-72 71%     7 - 6 0 - 1 -11.2 -4.8 -6.6
  Jan 06, 2019 208   American W 73-69 72%     8 - 6 1 - 1 -1.6 +0.0 -1.4
  Jan 09, 2019 146   @ Bucknell L 81-84 36%     8 - 7 1 - 2 +1.3 +5.1 -3.6
  Jan 12, 2019 158   Lehigh W 91-78 62%     9 - 7 2 - 2 +10.5 +12.3 -1.9
  Jan 16, 2019 246   @ Army L 81-91 61%     9 - 8 2 - 3 -12.3 +8.0 -20.1
  Jan 19, 2019 232   @ Boston University W 77-56 59%     10 - 8 3 - 3 +19.3 +12.2 +10.0
  Jan 23, 2019 295   Lafayette W 57-47 85%     11 - 8 4 - 3 -0.3 -19.2 +19.5
  Jan 26, 2019 281   @ Loyola Maryland L 72-79 67%     11 - 9 4 - 4 -11.0 -4.1 -6.9
  Jan 30, 2019 246   Army W 76-56 79%     12 - 9 5 - 4 +12.2 +11.3 +3.3
  Feb 02, 2019 232   Boston University L 68-76 77%     12 - 10 5 - 5 -15.2 -0.7 -15.6
  Feb 04, 2019 158   @ Lehigh W 84-62 40%     13 - 10 6 - 5 +25.1 +8.3 +16.6
  Feb 09, 2019 281   Loyola Maryland W 75-72 83%     14 - 10 7 - 5 -6.5 +4.5 -10.6
  Feb 13, 2019 234   @ Holy Cross W 74-70 59%     15 - 10 8 - 5 +2.3 +6.8 -4.2
  Feb 16, 2019 208   @ American W 83-81 52%     16 - 10 9 - 5 +2.0 +8.9 -7.0
  Feb 19, 2019 146   Bucknell W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 23, 2019 301   Navy W 75-64 86%    
  Feb 27, 2019 234   Holy Cross W 71-63 77%    
  Mar 02, 2019 295   @ Lafayette W 76-71 68%    
Projected Record 18.9 - 11.1 11.9 - 6.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 10.4 11.4 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 16.8 14.0 33.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 5.6 21.6 23.8 3.1 54.3 3rd
4th 0.3 0.5 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.6 6.1 24.2 41.6 27.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 37.8% 10.4    1.0 5.3 4.1
12-6 2.5% 1.0    0.0 0.3 0.7
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 1.1 5.6 4.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 27.5% 27.5% 27.5% 14.3 0.0 0.6 4.3 2.6 0.0 19.9
12-6 41.6% 23.4% 23.4% 15.0 0.0 1.5 7.2 1.1 31.9
11-7 24.2% 19.9% 19.9% 15.2 0.0 0.3 3.4 1.1 19.3
10-8 6.1% 16.6% 16.6% 15.3 0.0 0.6 0.4 5.1
9-9 0.6% 13.4% 13.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.6 6.1 13.8 2.7 76.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.6% 100.0% 14.3 0.1 8.0 57.4 34.0 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.1%
Lose Out 0.2%