College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#113
Achievement Rating+11.5#48
Pace64.2#316
Improvement+1.5#71

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#111
First Shot+3.7#73
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#252
Layup/Dunks+3.1#89
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#59
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#279
Freethrows+1.4#107
Improvement+1.5#57

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#111
First Shot+2.2#109
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#196
Layups/Dunks-1.9#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#102
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#200
Freethrows+3.6#18
Improvement+0.0#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.7% 28.8% 20.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 1.5% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.1
.500 or above 99.7% 99.8% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 96.6% 97.1% 94.9%
Conference Champion 32.4% 34.4% 26.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
First Round26.3% 28.3% 20.2%
Second Round5.2% 5.7% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.5% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Away) - 75.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 269   Presbyterian W 85-73 89%     1 - 0 +2.8 +4.9 -1.9
  Nov 10, 2018 307   @ Western Carolina W 77-74 82%     2 - 0 -2.3 +4.6 -6.9
  Nov 13, 2018 112   Rhode Island W 66-55 61%     3 - 0 +12.3 +3.0 +10.2
  Nov 18, 2018 73   @ Oklahoma St. L 58-70 29%     3 - 1 -2.0 -7.2 +5.0
  Nov 22, 2018 47   LSU L 55-67 30%     3 - 2 -2.2 -10.0 +6.6
  Nov 23, 2018 193   UAB W 74-51 72%     4 - 2 +21.1 +7.4 +15.8
  Nov 25, 2018 114   Memphis W 78-75 50%     5 - 2 +7.2 +2.8 +4.3
  Nov 28, 2018 343   South Carolina St. W 83-70 96%     6 - 2 -3.6 +1.6 -5.0
  Dec 01, 2018 311   Charlotte W 72-64 92%     7 - 2 -3.5 +3.5 -6.0
  Dec 15, 2018 92   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 83-79 33%     8 - 2 +12.8 +8.6 +3.7
  Dec 18, 2018 265   @ Siena W 69-62 76%    
  Dec 21, 2018 185   Coastal Carolina W 75-66 79%    
  Dec 29, 2018 239   @ UNC Wilmington W 78-72 72%    
  Jan 03, 2019 284   @ Towson W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 05, 2019 232   @ James Madison W 69-64 70%    
  Jan 10, 2019 249   Drexel W 79-67 88%    
  Jan 12, 2019 218   Delaware W 74-64 84%    
  Jan 17, 2019 91   @ Northeastern L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 19, 2019 116   @ Hofstra L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 24, 2019 304   Elon W 77-62 92%    
  Jan 26, 2019 194   William & Mary W 78-69 80%    
  Jan 31, 2019 232   James Madison W 72-61 85%    
  Feb 02, 2019 284   Towson W 74-60 90%    
  Feb 07, 2019 218   @ Delaware W 71-67 66%    
  Feb 09, 2019 249   @ Drexel W 76-70 72%    
  Feb 14, 2019 116   Hofstra W 74-71 63%    
  Feb 16, 2019 91   Northeastern W 71-70 56%    
  Feb 21, 2019 194   @ William & Mary W 75-72 62%    
  Feb 23, 2019 304   @ Elon W 74-65 80%    
  Mar 02, 2019 239   UNC Wilmington W 81-69 87%    
Projected Record 22.5 - 7.5 12.9 - 5.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 7.2 9.3 7.9 3.8 0.9 32.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 5.5 9.8 8.8 3.6 0.5 29.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 5.8 7.4 4.4 0.9 0.0 20.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.4 3.3 1.2 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 4.0 7.3 10.7 14.7 17.0 16.9 12.9 8.4 3.8 0.9 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 3.8    3.8 0.0
16-2 94.3% 7.9    6.8 1.1 0.0
15-3 72.1% 9.3    6.1 2.9 0.2
14-4 42.3% 7.2    3.6 3.0 0.6 0.0
13-5 15.5% 2.6    0.7 1.4 0.5 0.1
12-6 4.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.4% 32.4 22.0 8.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 75.3% 61.3% 14.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 36.1%
17-1 3.8% 57.9% 50.3% 7.6% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.6 15.3%
16-2 8.4% 48.0% 45.2% 2.9% 11.7 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.4 5.2%
15-3 12.9% 34.8% 33.7% 1.0% 12.2 0.1 0.6 2.2 1.4 0.2 8.4 1.5%
14-4 16.9% 29.9% 29.3% 0.6% 12.7 0.2 1.6 2.5 0.7 0.0 11.9 0.8%
13-5 17.0% 25.1% 24.9% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 12.7 0.2%
12-6 14.7% 18.9% 18.9% 13.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.4 11.9
11-7 10.7% 16.0% 16.0% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 9.0
10-8 7.3% 13.4% 13.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 6.3
9-9 4.0% 8.2% 8.2% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.7
8-10 1.9% 5.7% 5.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
7-11 1.0% 6.9% 6.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-12 0.3% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.1% 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.7% 25.8% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 3.1 7.5 8.5 4.9 1.6 0.1 73.3 1.2%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.5 2.8 8.3 5.6 27.8 30.6 22.2 2.8