College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#123
Achievement Rating+6.4#87
Pace64.2#306
Improvement-2.6#286

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#83
First Shot+4.5#53
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#251
Layup/Dunks+3.4#52
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#107
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#251
Freethrows+1.7#63
Improvement+1.3#112

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#176
First Shot-1.2#211
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#63
Layups/Dunks-1.3#240
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#186
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#278
Freethrows+2.6#29
Improvement-3.9#329
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.7% 20.9% 17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round19.7% 20.9% 17.8%
Second Round2.2% 2.5% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Away) - 60.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 215   Presbyterian W 85-73 81%     1 - 0 +6.0 +6.1 +0.1
  Nov 10, 2018 289   @ Western Carolina W 77-74 77%     2 - 0 -1.5 +3.1 -4.5
  Nov 13, 2018 140   Rhode Island W 66-55 66%     3 - 0 +10.0 +0.2 +10.7
  Nov 18, 2018 86   @ Oklahoma St. L 58-70 30%     3 - 1 -3.4 -10.0 +6.4
  Nov 22, 2018 22   LSU L 55-67 15%     3 - 2 +2.4 -8.2 +9.4
  Nov 23, 2018 162   UAB W 74-51 63%     4 - 2 +22.9 +7.6 +17.4
  Nov 25, 2018 76   Memphis W 78-75 38%     5 - 2 +9.4 +4.8 +4.5
  Nov 28, 2018 343   South Carolina St. W 83-70 96%     6 - 2 -4.5 +0.9 -5.2
  Dec 01, 2018 287   Charlotte W 72-64 89%     7 - 2 -1.9 +6.1 -7.1
  Dec 15, 2018 47   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 83-79 20%     8 - 2 +16.1 +9.4 +6.1
  Dec 18, 2018 251   @ Siena W 83-58 71%     9 - 2 +22.4 +21.5 +4.6
  Dec 21, 2018 163   Coastal Carolina W 73-71 72%     10 - 2 -0.9 +0.6 -1.4
  Dec 29, 2018 252   @ UNC Wilmington W 73-66 72%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +4.3 +2.7 +2.5
  Jan 03, 2019 253   @ Towson W 67-55 72%     12 - 2 2 - 0 +9.3 +3.7 +7.6
  Jan 05, 2019 258   @ James Madison L 58-69 72%     12 - 3 2 - 1 -13.9 -12.4 -2.3
  Jan 10, 2019 243   Drexel L 78-79 85%     12 - 4 2 - 2 -8.6 +2.0 -10.7
  Jan 12, 2019 249   Delaware W 71-58 85%     13 - 4 3 - 2 +5.1 -4.1 +9.8
  Jan 17, 2019 101   @ Northeastern L 60-69 34%     13 - 5 3 - 3 -1.4 -10.2 +8.7
  Jan 19, 2019 87   @ Hofstra L 72-86 30%     13 - 6 3 - 4 -5.4 +5.2 -11.9
  Jan 24, 2019 316   Elon W 72-53 92%     14 - 6 4 - 4 +6.6 -2.0 +9.7
  Jan 26, 2019 204   William & Mary W 74-59 79%     15 - 6 5 - 4 +9.6 +2.8 +8.1
  Jan 31, 2019 258   James Madison W 70-53 86%     16 - 6 6 - 4 +8.6 +1.9 +9.1
  Feb 02, 2019 253   Towson W 54-53 86%     17 - 6 7 - 4 -7.2 -8.8 +1.9
  Feb 07, 2019 249   @ Delaware W 83-75 71%     18 - 6 8 - 4 +5.6 +16.7 -10.2
  Feb 09, 2019 243   @ Drexel W 86-84 70%     19 - 6 9 - 4 -0.1 +9.1 -9.2
  Feb 14, 2019 87   Hofstra L 95-99 51%     19 - 7 9 - 5 -0.9 +13.2 -13.9
  Feb 16, 2019 101   Northeastern W 88-79 55%     20 - 7 10 - 5 +11.1 +13.8 -2.7
  Feb 21, 2019 204   @ William & Mary W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 23, 2019 316   @ Elon W 75-65 83%    
  Mar 02, 2019 252   UNC Wilmington W 82-71 86%    
Projected Record 22.3 - 7.7 12.3 - 5.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 6.6 24.1 31.0 2nd
3rd 1.1 11.8 36.0 19.8 68.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.1 12.0 42.6 44.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 44.2% 21.9% 21.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.1 5.7 1.7 0.0 34.5
12-6 42.6% 18.8% 18.8% 13.7 0.2 2.9 4.4 0.6 0.0 34.6
11-7 12.0% 15.2% 15.2% 14.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 10.2
10-8 1.1% 13.0% 13.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.3 9.0 7.2 1.0 0.0 80.3 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.7% 100.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 1.2 22.1 59.2 17.1 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 17.3%
Lose Out 0.3%