Colorado St.
Mountain West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#178
Achievement Rating-4.3#227
Pace68.7#186
Improvement+3.5#44

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#110
First Shot+4.2#56
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#302
Layup/Dunks+3.0#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#137
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#196
Freethrows+1.0#119
Improvement+0.7#152

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#261
First Shot-3.3#274
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#203
Layups/Dunks+1.1#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#321
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#333
Freethrows+2.5#32
Improvement+2.7#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.8% 10.8% 0.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Away) - 80.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 330   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 92-67 88%     1 - 0 +10.9 +20.9 -8.0
  Nov 14, 2018 227   Montana St. W 81-77 71%     2 - 0 -2.7 +0.9 -3.7
  Nov 19, 2018 185   Louisiana L 73-91 52%     2 - 1 -19.5 -11.1 -6.4
  Nov 20, 2018 230   Florida Gulf Coast W 82-74 62%     3 - 1 +3.8 +4.2 -0.8
  Nov 21, 2018 77   @ South Dakota St. L 65-78 17%     3 - 2 -3.9 -4.1 -0.1
  Nov 27, 2018 145   Southern Illinois L 67-82 50%     3 - 3 -16.2 +3.0 -21.2
  Dec 01, 2018 66   @ Colorado L 80-86 15%     3 - 4 +3.9 +7.7 -3.4
  Dec 05, 2018 58   Arkansas L 74-98 27%     3 - 5 -18.8 +4.0 -22.7
  Dec 08, 2018 173   Sam Houston St. W 71-65 58%     4 - 5 +2.7 -1.9 +4.7
  Dec 16, 2018 231   South Dakota L 63-68 72%     4 - 6 -12.2 -4.7 -8.1
  Dec 22, 2018 221   @ Long Beach St. L 61-64 48%     4 - 7 -3.6 -17.8 +14.4
  Dec 30, 2018 62   New Mexico St. L 68-88 29%     4 - 8 -15.3 +3.9 -21.1
  Jan 02, 2019 151   @ UNLV L 76-78 33%     4 - 9 0 - 1 +1.5 +2.0 -0.5
  Jan 05, 2019 59   @ Fresno St. L 67-78 14%     4 - 10 0 - 2 -0.3 -2.9 +3.0
  Jan 08, 2019 239   Air Force W 87-64 73%     5 - 10 1 - 2 +15.6 +18.3 -0.8
  Jan 12, 2019 155   New Mexico W 91-76 54%     6 - 10 2 - 2 +12.8 +12.0 +0.0
  Jan 19, 2019 49   @ Utah St. L 72-87 11%     6 - 11 2 - 3 -2.9 +6.3 -9.5
  Jan 23, 2019 13   @ Nevada L 60-100 4%     6 - 12 2 - 4 -21.1 -8.3 -10.2
  Jan 26, 2019 59   Fresno St. W 74-65 27%     7 - 12 3 - 4 +14.1 +1.1 +12.7
  Jan 29, 2019 125   Boise St. L 68-70 44%     7 - 13 3 - 5 -1.5 +1.8 -3.5
  Feb 02, 2019 239   @ Air Force W 85-53 53%     8 - 13 4 - 5 +30.2 +17.8 +14.6
  Feb 06, 2019 13   Nevada L 82-98 9%     8 - 14 4 - 6 -2.7 +14.9 -17.5
  Feb 09, 2019 298   @ Wyoming L 66-74 65%     8 - 15 4 - 7 -13.1 -2.1 -11.6
  Feb 12, 2019 115   San Diego St. L 60-71 41%     8 - 16 4 - 8 -9.8 -8.0 -2.7
  Feb 20, 2019 338   @ San Jose St. W 76-67 80%    
  Feb 23, 2019 298   Wyoming W 78-69 82%    
  Feb 27, 2019 125   @ Boise St. L 69-76 25%    
  Mar 02, 2019 155   @ New Mexico L 77-81 33%    
  Mar 05, 2019 49   Utah St. L 71-79 24%    
  Mar 09, 2019 151   UNLV W 77-76 54%    
Projected Record 11.0 - 19.0 7.0 - 11.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 0.6 3.7 5th
6th 0.2 7.2 4.2 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.6 11.4 14.1 0.5 26.6 7th
8th 0.4 10.9 20.4 1.8 33.5 8th
9th 0.4 6.4 13.2 2.3 0.0 22.3 9th
10th 0.5 1.1 0.1 1.7 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.9 7.9 24.8 34.3 23.2 7.8 1.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 1.0
9-9 7.8% 0.8% 0.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7
8-10 23.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.2
7-11 34.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 34.2
6-12 24.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.8
5-13 7.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.8
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 0.6%