Colorado
Pac-12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#69
Achievement Rating+6.1#88
Pace70.4#138
Improvement-0.8#222

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#110
First Shot+2.9#89
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#205
Layup/Dunks+4.0#41
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#291
Freethrows+1.3#97
Improvement-0.2#195

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#54
First Shot+4.5#48
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#162
Layups/Dunks-0.5#198
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#63
Freethrows+2.3#44
Improvement-0.6#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 11.6% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.0% 2.9% 0.5%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 11.8
.500 or above 99.7% 100.0% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 80.2% 90.5% 61.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 2.1% 0.5%
First Round8.7% 10.5% 5.6%
Second Round2.2% 2.7% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Home) - 64.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 129   Drake W 100-71 74%     1 - 0 +29.2 +17.4 +9.1
  Nov 16, 2018 170   Nebraska Omaha W 79-75 83%     2 - 0 +0.9 -1.1 +1.9
  Nov 20, 2018 101   @ San Diego L 64-70 48%     2 - 1 +1.5 -3.1 +4.5
  Nov 24, 2018 238   @ Air Force W 93-56 80%     3 - 1 +35.2 +14.5 +18.5
  Nov 28, 2018 318   Portland W 93-69 95%     4 - 1 +11.5 +3.8 +4.5
  Dec 01, 2018 180   Colorado St. W 86-80 84%     5 - 1 +2.2 +2.6 -0.8
  Dec 04, 2018 231   South Dakota W 82-58 90%     6 - 1 +16.9 +7.3 +9.7
  Dec 08, 2018 197   Illinois-Chicago W 84-72 86%     7 - 1 +7.2 +1.4 +4.7
  Dec 11, 2018 151   @ New Mexico W 78-75 63%     8 - 1 +6.6 +0.0 +6.3
  Dec 22, 2018 198   Indiana St. L 67-72 81%     8 - 2 -7.2 -7.9 +0.9
  Dec 23, 2018 172   @ Hawaii L 62-70 68%     8 - 3 -5.8 -14.0 +8.8
  Dec 25, 2018 288   Charlotte W 68-53 90%     9 - 3 +7.8 +0.5 +8.6
  Jan 03, 2019 81   @ Arizona L 56-64 43%     9 - 4 0 - 1 +0.9 -8.5 +8.9
  Jan 05, 2019 54   @ Arizona St. L 61-83 33%     9 - 5 0 - 2 -10.5 -6.2 -4.4
  Jan 10, 2019 165   Washington St. W 92-60 83%     10 - 5 1 - 2 +29.1 +15.4 +14.1
  Jan 12, 2019 37   Washington L 70-77 44%     10 - 6 1 - 3 +1.6 +4.7 -3.2
  Jan 20, 2019 95   @ Utah L 69-78 47%     10 - 7 1 - 4 -1.2 -5.3 +4.2
  Jan 24, 2019 257   @ California W 68-59 82%     11 - 7 2 - 4 +6.2 -2.5 +9.5
  Jan 26, 2019 93   @ Stanford L 62-75 46%     11 - 8 2 - 5 -5.0 -6.1 +1.1
  Jan 31, 2019 73   Oregon St. L 74-76 62%     11 - 9 2 - 6 +1.9 +2.7 -0.8
  Feb 02, 2019 55   Oregon W 73-51 55%     12 - 9 3 - 6 +27.7 +5.1 +22.5
  Feb 06, 2019 92   @ UCLA W 84-73 46%     13 - 9 4 - 6 +19.1 +16.9 +2.3
  Feb 09, 2019 79   @ USC W 69-65 42%     14 - 9 5 - 6 +13.0 +6.0 +7.3
  Feb 13, 2019 54   Arizona St. W 77-73 54%     15 - 9 6 - 6 +10.1 +8.3 +1.9
  Feb 17, 2019 81   Arizona W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 20, 2019 165   @ Washington St. W 79-74 65%    
  Feb 23, 2019 37   @ Washington L 64-71 25%    
  Mar 02, 2019 95   Utah W 76-71 68%    
  Mar 07, 2019 92   UCLA W 77-73 67%    
  Mar 09, 2019 79   USC W 75-72 63%    
Projected Record 18.5 - 11.5 9.5 - 8.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.6 6.4 3.1 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 5.6 9.3 0.6 15.4 3rd
4th 0.5 12.5 2.4 0.0 15.4 4th
5th 4.3 9.3 0.2 13.8 5th
6th 0.1 10.7 2.2 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 9.5 0.2 11.2 7th
8th 0.2 6.2 2.6 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 5.7 0.1 7.1 9th
10th 0.4 2.9 1.2 4.5 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 0.4 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.6 4.5 14.7 27.8 30.4 18.3 3.7 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.7% 40.8% 17.8% 23.1% 10.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 2.2 28.1%
11-7 18.3% 17.8% 13.9% 3.9% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 15.0 4.6%
10-8 30.4% 9.3% 8.5% 0.8% 11.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 27.6 0.9%
9-9 27.8% 4.6% 4.5% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 26.5 0.2%
8-10 14.7% 3.4% 3.4% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 14.3
7-11 4.5% 2.4% 2.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.4
6-12 0.6% 2.1% 2.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.5% 7.6% 1.9% 11.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.5 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 90.5 2.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 9.3 9.6 18.2 25.3 30.3 16.2 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 53.5% 11.0 2.0 13.0 23.0 14.5 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 26.6% 11.3 0.3 3.9 11.7 8.4 2.4
Lose Out 0.3%