Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#260
Achievement Rating-4.8#235
Pace70.9#126
Improvement-3.4#306

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#198
First Shot-2.4#258
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#60
Layup/Dunks-6.9#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#147
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#35
Freethrows-0.7#231
Improvement-2.5#288

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#305
First Shot-2.8#262
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#330
Layups/Dunks-3.4#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#104
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#152
Freethrows-1.0#241
Improvement-0.9#233
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 3.1% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 39.8% 75.5% 23.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 1.7% 1.5%
First Round1.4% 2.2% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 30.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 263   @ Western Michigan L 76-89 40%     0 - 1 -16.1 -1.6 -14.1
  Nov 09, 2018 70   @ Temple L 67-83 8%     0 - 2 -6.2 -1.0 -5.2
  Nov 12, 2018 46   @ Butler L 63-84 6%     0 - 3 -8.8 -8.5 +0.9
  Nov 19, 2018 281   Loyola Maryland W 91-63 65%     1 - 3 +18.5 +13.7 +5.3
  Nov 20, 2018 100   Bowling Green W 82-67 23%     2 - 3 +17.2 +8.8 +8.0
  Nov 24, 2018 149   @ Eastern Michigan W 78-74 18%     3 - 3 +8.0 +15.0 -6.6
  Nov 28, 2018 142   Kent St. L 72-76 33%     3 - 4 -5.0 -0.4 -4.7
  Dec 01, 2018 126   @ Akron L 59-71 14%     3 - 5 -6.0 -3.4 -3.1
  Dec 04, 2018 72   @ Dayton L 59-98 8%     3 - 6 -29.4 -12.0 -16.9
  Dec 05, 2018 67   @ Toledo L 57-101 8%     3 - 7 -34.1 -11.3 -22.4
  Dec 15, 2018 209   Ohio L 61-63 50%     3 - 8 -7.6 -11.6 +4.1
  Dec 21, 2018 82   @ Xavier L 55-69 10%     3 - 9 -5.2 -12.3 +6.4
  Dec 28, 2018 283   @ Youngstown St. W 78-66 44%     4 - 9 1 - 0 +8.0 +3.6 +4.8
  Dec 30, 2018 306   @ Cleveland St. W 73-61 50%     5 - 9 2 - 0 +6.3 -2.5 +9.1
  Jan 03, 2019 141   Wright St. W 79-58 33%     6 - 9 3 - 0 +20.0 +7.3 +13.2
  Jan 05, 2019 106   Northern Kentucky L 73-95 24%     6 - 10 3 - 1 -20.3 +2.1 -23.1
  Jan 10, 2019 224   Green Bay W 101-83 54%     7 - 10 4 - 1 +11.4 +11.1 -2.0
  Jan 12, 2019 304   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 93-84 70%     8 - 10 5 - 1 -2.1 +9.9 -12.4
  Jan 19, 2019 216   Oakland L 73-79 51%     8 - 11 5 - 2 -12.0 -8.1 -3.7
  Jan 24, 2019 196   @ Illinois-Chicago L 67-79 27%     8 - 12 5 - 3 -11.3 -0.4 -11.7
  Jan 26, 2019 205   @ IUPUI L 65-80 29%     8 - 13 5 - 4 -14.9 -8.1 -6.7
  Jan 31, 2019 306   Cleveland St. W 78-64 70%     9 - 13 6 - 4 +2.8 -0.6 +3.6
  Feb 02, 2019 283   Youngstown St. L 70-72 65%     9 - 14 6 - 5 -11.6 -8.4 -3.2
  Feb 07, 2019 106   @ Northern Kentucky L 65-97 12%     9 - 15 6 - 6 -24.7 -5.9 -18.8
  Feb 09, 2019 141   @ Wright St. L 60-83 17%     9 - 16 6 - 7 -18.5 -11.2 -7.1
  Feb 14, 2019 304   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 90-84 50%     10 - 16 7 - 7 +0.5 +11.2 -10.9
  Feb 16, 2019 224   @ Green Bay L 73-82 33%     10 - 17 7 - 8 -10.1 -6.4 -3.1
  Feb 23, 2019 216   @ Oakland L 75-80 31%    
  Feb 28, 2019 205   IUPUI L 76-77 50%    
  Mar 02, 2019 196   Illinois-Chicago L 76-77 48%    
Projected Record 11.3 - 18.7 8.3 - 9.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.4 3.4 3rd
4th 7.2 4.4 11.6 4th
5th 2.1 16.7 0.3 19.1 5th
6th 0.1 15.8 7.3 23.2 6th
7th 3.6 18.0 0.4 22.0 7th
8th 15.2 5.4 20.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 19.0 41.2 31.6 8.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 8.1% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.1 0.3 7.8
9-9 31.6% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0 30.6
8-10 41.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6 40.6
7-11 19.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 18.9
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 2.0 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 15.7 32.5 67.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.7%
Lose Out 8.3%