East Tennessee St.
Southern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#93
Achievement Rating+7.5#74
Pace67.8#208
Improvement-0.3#199

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#91
First Shot+1.0#153
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#39
Layup/Dunks+2.8#81
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#209
Freethrows-2.1#309
Improvement+4.1#28

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#115
First Shot+0.2#162
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#19
Layups/Dunks+2.1#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#222
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#238
Freethrows+0.0#180
Improvement-4.4#339
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.2% 15.8% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.2% 15.8% 11.4%
Second Round2.5% 2.7% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Away) - 87.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 131   @ Georgia St. L 68-74 49%     0 - 1 -0.5 -1.6 +1.0
  Nov 11, 2018 51   @ Creighton L 69-75 26%     0 - 2 +6.0 +1.5 +4.4
  Nov 17, 2018 177   @ Winthrop W 76-74 63%     1 - 2 +4.0 -3.5 +7.3
  Nov 19, 2018 351   Chicago St. W 86-61 99%     2 - 2 +2.3 +6.5 -2.9
  Nov 20, 2018 173   Sam Houston St. W 77-63 79%     3 - 2 +10.7 +12.8 -0.3
  Nov 24, 2018 194   North Dakota St. W 79-61 83%     4 - 2 +13.2 +6.9 +7.6
  Nov 27, 2018 128   @ Georgia Southern W 69-64 48%     5 - 2 +10.8 -8.8 +19.1
  Dec 01, 2018 39   @ Wofford L 62-79 21%     5 - 3 0 - 1 -3.3 -5.1 +1.2
  Dec 08, 2018 300   Tennessee Martin W 80-62 92%     6 - 3 +7.3 -3.4 +10.1
  Dec 15, 2018 56   @ Illinois L 55-73 29%     6 - 4 -7.0 -12.2 +5.3
  Dec 21, 2018 298   Wyoming W 76-53 89%     7 - 4 +15.2 -7.9 +20.4
  Dec 22, 2018 261   Norfolk St. W 89-61 85%     8 - 4 +22.2 +11.7 +9.7
  Dec 29, 2018 64   Furman W 79-56 53%     9 - 4 1 - 1 +27.6 +20.1 +10.3
  Jan 03, 2019 174   Samford W 81-72 79%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +5.7 -4.1 +8.7
  Jan 05, 2019 292   Chattanooga W 96-70 92%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +15.9 +12.6 +2.2
  Jan 10, 2019 278   @ The Citadel W 98-73 81%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +21.1 +9.3 +9.2
  Jan 12, 2019 192   @ Mercer W 72-68 67%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +4.8 +3.7 +1.4
  Jan 17, 2019 318   VMI W 85-82 94%     14 - 4 6 - 1 -9.8 +1.0 -10.9
  Jan 19, 2019 110   UNC Greensboro L 68-75 65%     14 - 5 6 - 2 -5.6 -2.3 -3.4
  Jan 26, 2019 289   @ Western Carolina W 91-69 82%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +17.5 +13.6 +3.6
  Jan 31, 2019 174   @ Samford W 74-66 62%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +10.2 +0.3 +9.9
  Feb 02, 2019 292   @ Chattanooga W 77-64 82%     17 - 5 9 - 2 +8.4 +5.7 +3.7
  Feb 07, 2019 39   Wofford L 76-78 39%     17 - 6 9 - 3 +6.2 +5.7 +0.5
  Feb 09, 2019 64   @ Furman L 61-91 32%     17 - 7 9 - 4 -19.9 +0.3 -22.8
  Feb 14, 2019 278   The Citadel W 91-83 91%     18 - 7 10 - 4 -1.4 +10.8 -12.1
  Feb 16, 2019 192   Mercer W 88-69 83%     19 - 7 11 - 4 +14.3 +9.7 +4.2
  Feb 21, 2019 318   @ VMI W 82-69 88%    
  Feb 24, 2019 110   @ UNC Greensboro L 69-71 43%    
  Mar 02, 2019 289   Western Carolina W 81-66 93%    
Projected Record 21.2 - 7.8 13.2 - 4.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 6.9 35.8 42.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.7 33.6 36.3 3rd
4th 0.6 8.0 12.4 21.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.6 10.8 52.9 35.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 35.8% 18.3% 18.2% 0.0% 12.1 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 29.3 0.0%
13-5 52.9% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 12.9 0.1 2.0 4.3 1.1 0.0 45.3 0.0%
12-6 10.8% 10.0% 10.0% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 9.7
11-7 0.6% 8.2% 8.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.7 6.4 1.6 0.1 84.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.5% 100.0% 12.1 0.0 1.0 19.8 53.2 24.3 1.6 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.3% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.4% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0
Lose Out 0.2%