East Tennessee St.
Southern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#124
Achievement Rating+6.7#100
Pace67.8#239
Improvement+0.8#106

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#196
First Shot-3.1#265
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#56
Layup/Dunks+0.0#178
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#167
Freethrows-2.5#299
Improvement-0.8#243

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#74
First Shot+2.9#86
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#102
Layups/Dunks+3.1#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#138
Freethrows+0.2#162
Improvement+1.7#61
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 16.5% 11.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 1.4% 0.4%
Average Seed 12.8 12.4 13.0
.500 or above 95.5% 98.8% 94.0%
.500 or above in Conference 88.3% 91.5% 86.9%
Conference Champion 10.6% 14.0% 9.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
First Round13.0% 15.9% 11.7%
Second Round2.1% 3.0% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois (Away) - 30.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 108   @ Georgia St. L 68-74 33%     0 - 1 +1.6 -1.0 +2.5
  Nov 11, 2018 42   @ Creighton L 69-75 16%     0 - 2 +7.6 +0.1 +7.4
  Nov 17, 2018 180   @ Winthrop W 76-74 56%     1 - 2 +3.7 -2.8 +6.3
  Nov 19, 2018 349   Chicago St. W 86-61 97%     2 - 2 +5.6 +7.4 -0.6
  Nov 20, 2018 292   Sam Houston St. W 77-63 89%     3 - 2 +3.8 +10.1 -4.5
  Nov 24, 2018 205   North Dakota St. W 79-61 80%     4 - 2 +12.3 +6.6 +7.1
  Nov 27, 2018 134   @ Georgia Southern W 69-64 41%     5 - 2 +10.5 -8.8 +18.7
  Dec 01, 2018 67   @ Wofford L 62-79 25%     5 - 3 0 - 1 -6.7 -4.5 -2.7
  Dec 08, 2018 295   Tennessee Martin W 80-62 90%     6 - 3 +7.3 -2.5 +9.2
  Dec 15, 2018 93   @ Illinois L 68-74 30%    
  Dec 21, 2018 210   Wyoming W 74-68 71%    
  Dec 29, 2018 106   Furman W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 03, 2019 196   Samford W 74-66 78%    
  Jan 05, 2019 321   Chattanooga W 73-57 93%    
  Jan 10, 2019 184   @ The Citadel W 84-82 56%    
  Jan 12, 2019 215   @ Mercer W 66-63 61%    
  Jan 17, 2019 316   VMI W 76-61 92%    
  Jan 19, 2019 89   UNC Greensboro W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 26, 2019 294   @ Western Carolina W 74-66 76%    
  Jan 31, 2019 196   @ Samford W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 02, 2019 321   @ Chattanooga W 70-60 83%    
  Feb 07, 2019 67   Wofford L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 09, 2019 106   @ Furman L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 14, 2019 184   The Citadel W 87-79 75%    
  Feb 16, 2019 215   Mercer W 69-60 80%    
  Feb 21, 2019 316   @ VMI W 73-64 80%    
  Feb 24, 2019 89   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-71 31%    
  Mar 02, 2019 294   Western Carolina W 77-63 89%    
Projected Record 18.4 - 9.6 11.4 - 6.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.2 3.8 2.0 0.4 10.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.7 5.9 1.8 0.2 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.7 8.8 6.0 1.3 0.0 21.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 6.3 8.8 4.6 0.8 0.0 22.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.8 5.2 1.9 0.2 14.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.0 2.5 0.8 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.2 6.1 9.5 13.3 15.9 16.5 14.6 10.3 5.7 2.1 0.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 92.5% 2.0    1.6 0.4 0.0
15-3 67.5% 3.8    2.1 1.5 0.2
14-4 30.9% 3.2    1.0 1.5 0.6 0.0
13-5 7.4% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.6% 10.6 5.3 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.4% 61.6% 43.5% 18.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 32.1%
16-2 2.1% 43.0% 33.6% 9.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 14.2%
15-3 5.7% 32.3% 28.9% 3.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.8 4.9%
14-4 10.3% 23.2% 22.2% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.9 1.3%
13-5 14.6% 17.7% 17.5% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 12.0 0.3%
12-6 16.5% 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 14.4 0.0%
11-7 15.9% 9.2% 9.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 14.4
10-8 13.3% 7.0% 7.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 12.4
9-9 9.5% 5.0% 5.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.0
8-10 6.1% 3.3% 3.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.9
7-11 3.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.1
6-12 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.3% 12.7% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.6 3.9 2.7 1.0 0.2 86.7 0.7%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.3 3.1 12.3 21.5 10.8 29.2 13.8 9.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 43.8% 10.2 2.1 4.2 4.2 10.4 20.8 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 38.9% 9.9 2.8 11.1 8.3 8.3 8.3