Florida Atlantic
Conference USA
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#212
Achievement Rating+3.3#135
Pace71.2#147
Improvement-1.2#262

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#229
First Shot-2.3#246
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#139
Layup/Dunks-6.7#336
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#42
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#150
Freethrows+0.5#145
Improvement-3.1#346

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#201
First Shot-3.4#277
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#43
Layups/Dunks+1.9#111
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#322
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#228
Freethrows-0.6#209
Improvement+2.0#45
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.3% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 48.9% 60.8% 34.4%
.500 or above in Conference 45.1% 50.4% 38.6%
Conference Champion 2.2% 2.9% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 4.7% 8.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.8% 2.3% 1.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Away) - 54.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2018 41   @ Central Florida W 80-79 7%     1 - 0 +14.6 +17.3 -2.7
  Nov 16, 2018 134   Georgia Southern L 70-80 30%     1 - 1 -7.5 -8.6 +2.0
  Nov 17, 2018 297   Towson W 85-71 68%     2 - 1 +6.2 +18.9 -11.0
  Nov 18, 2018 336   Incarnate Word W 71-68 82%     3 - 1 -9.5 -2.7 -6.5
  Nov 25, 2018 242   Florida Gulf Coast W 85-68 69%     4 - 1 +9.1 +5.8 +2.9
  Dec 01, 2018 308   @ Bethune-Cookman L 70-72 60%     4 - 2 -7.6 -10.7 +3.3
  Dec 05, 2018 215   Mercer W 68-64 62%     5 - 2 -2.1 -9.8 +7.6
  Dec 14, 2018 291   @ Arkansas St. W 76-75 55%    
  Dec 22, 2018 45   @ Miami (FL) L 65-81 7%    
  Dec 29, 2018 93   @ Illinois L 69-81 14%    
  Jan 03, 2019 217   @ UAB L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 05, 2019 254   @ Middle Tennessee L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 10, 2019 105   Old Dominion L 62-67 33%    
  Jan 12, 2019 309   Charlotte W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 17, 2019 129   @ Marshall L 76-85 22%    
  Jan 19, 2019 83   @ Western Kentucky L 67-79 14%    
  Jan 23, 2019 228   Florida International W 87-83 65%    
  Jan 26, 2019 228   @ Florida International L 84-86 44%    
  Jan 31, 2019 137   Louisiana Tech L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 02, 2019 149   Southern Miss L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 07, 2019 214   @ UTEP L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 09, 2019 188   @ Texas San Antonio L 73-77 35%    
  Feb 14, 2019 121   North Texas L 69-72 38%    
  Feb 16, 2019 315   Rice W 81-72 80%    
Projected Record 12.0 - 12.0 6.3 - 7.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 3.5 0.6 0.0 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.8 1.9 0.1 7.7 5th
6th 0.2 4.3 4.1 0.3 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 2.3 6.4 1.2 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 6.1 3.5 0.1 10.6 8th
9th 0.2 3.9 6.2 0.6 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.8 6.6 2.0 0.0 10.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 4.8 3.6 0.2 9.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.9 0.6 0.0 7.8 12th
13th 0.2 1.5 2.5 0.8 0.0 5.1 13th
14th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.6 14th
Total 0.1 1.0 3.1 6.8 11.5 15.4 17.0 15.9 12.4 8.7 4.9 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 96.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
12-2 82.3% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-3 42.4% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
10-4 8.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 45.0% 35.0% 10.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4%
13-1 0.2% 21.1% 20.5% 0.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7%
12-2 0.8% 13.9% 13.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-3 2.2% 11.6% 11.5% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0 0.1%
10-4 4.9% 7.3% 7.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.5
9-5 8.7% 4.2% 4.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.3
8-6 12.4% 2.1% 2.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.1
7-7 15.9% 1.3% 1.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.7
6-8 17.0% 0.8% 0.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 16.9
5-9 15.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 15.4
4-10 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.5
3-11 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.8
2-12 3.1% 3.1
1-13 1.0% 1.0
0-14 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%