Florida Atlantic
Conference USA
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#168
Achievement Rating+0.3#163
Pace69.2#172
Improvement+2.5#71

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#265
First Shot-3.8#285
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#121
Layup/Dunks-7.5#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#33
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#101
Freethrows-1.6#285
Improvement-1.9#268

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#101
First Shot+0.1#168
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#6
Layups/Dunks+2.3#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#315
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#234
Freethrows+1.2#91
Improvement+4.4#11
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 6.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.5% 6.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Home) - 34.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2018 52   @ Central Florida W 80-79 13%     1 - 0 +12.9 +14.8 -1.9
  Nov 16, 2018 128   Georgia Southern L 70-80 37%     1 - 1 -6.9 -8.5 +2.4
  Nov 17, 2018 253   Towson W 85-71 69%     2 - 1 +8.6 +19.5 -9.2
  Nov 18, 2018 339   Incarnate Word W 71-68 89%     3 - 1 -10.5 -3.5 -6.7
  Nov 25, 2018 230   Florida Gulf Coast W 85-68 74%     4 - 1 +10.0 +7.9 +1.8
  Dec 01, 2018 303   @ Bethune-Cookman L 70-72 69%     4 - 2 -7.4 -9.7 +2.5
  Dec 05, 2018 192   Mercer W 68-64 67%     5 - 2 -0.7 -11.6 +10.7
  Dec 14, 2018 259   @ Arkansas St. L 71-75 60%     5 - 3 -6.9 -14.1 +7.8
  Dec 22, 2018 60   @ Miami (FL) L 55-75 16%     5 - 4 -9.5 -12.1 +2.5
  Dec 29, 2018 56   @ Illinois W 73-71 15%     6 - 4 +13.0 -5.6 +18.3
  Jan 03, 2019 162   @ UAB L 50-67 39%     6 - 5 0 - 1 -14.4 -19.4 +4.2
  Jan 05, 2019 244   @ Middle Tennessee W 63-56 57%     7 - 5 1 - 1 +4.9 -11.3 +16.0
  Jan 10, 2019 111   Old Dominion W 80-73 44%     8 - 5 2 - 1 +8.4 +17.5 -8.4
  Jan 12, 2019 287   Charlotte L 60-65 82%     8 - 6 2 - 2 -14.9 -9.8 -5.5
  Jan 17, 2019 202   @ Marshall L 84-96 48%     8 - 7 2 - 3 -11.7 -3.5 -6.4
  Jan 19, 2019 122   @ Western Kentucky L 66-72 27%     8 - 8 2 - 4 +0.2 +1.4 -1.6
  Jan 23, 2019 223   Florida International L 74-78 72%     8 - 9 2 - 5 -10.4 -4.4 -5.8
  Jan 26, 2019 223   @ Florida International W 89-72 52%     9 - 9 3 - 5 +16.1 +1.8 +11.6
  Jan 31, 2019 136   Louisiana Tech W 69-61 52%     10 - 9 4 - 5 +7.3 -0.7 +8.3
  Feb 02, 2019 127   Southern Miss L 72-74 47%     10 - 10 4 - 6 -1.6 +8.5 -10.3
  Feb 07, 2019 266   @ UTEP W 61-48 61%     11 - 10 5 - 6 +9.9 -5.3 +15.8
  Feb 09, 2019 134   @ Texas San Antonio L 74-86 31%     11 - 11 5 - 7 -7.0 -0.4 -6.2
  Feb 14, 2019 138   North Texas W 57-47 52%     12 - 11 6 - 7 +9.2 -8.8 +18.9
  Feb 16, 2019 254   Rice W 60-41 78%     13 - 11 7 - 7 +10.7 -13.9 +26.0
Projected Record 13.0 - 11.0 7.0 - 7.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6
7-7 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6
7-7 100.0% 3.5% 3.5% 14.3 0.2 2.0 1.3 0.0 96.5
6-8
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 14.3 0.2 2.0 1.3 0.0 96.5 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.5% 100.0% 14.3 5.2 56.4 37.7 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.3%
Lose Out 41.5%