Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#230
Achievement Rating-5.6#246
Pace71.0#124
Improvement+1.0#138

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#258
First Shot-2.3#257
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#207
Layup/Dunks+1.7#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#161
Freethrows-0.7#230
Improvement-1.4#250

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#209
First Shot+0.4#159
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#318
Layups/Dunks-0.2#183
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#296
Freethrows+2.0#53
Improvement+2.4#66
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.2% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 46.0% 93.9% 37.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 0.9% 1.1%
First Round0.9% 1.8% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 15.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 165   @ Illinois St. L 66-74 26%     0 - 1 -5.4 -6.6 +1.3
  Nov 11, 2018 4   @ Michigan St. L 82-106 1%     0 - 2 -1.0 +8.0 -5.4
  Nov 16, 2018 77   South Dakota St. W 84-78 23%     1 - 2 +9.6 +2.8 +6.3
  Nov 19, 2018 67   Toledo L 62-90 15%     1 - 3 -20.9 -7.7 -12.9
  Nov 20, 2018 178   Colorado St. L 74-82 38%     1 - 4 -9.1 -5.5 -3.3
  Nov 21, 2018 134   Texas San Antonio L 65-76 27%     1 - 5 -8.8 -8.7 +0.1
  Nov 25, 2018 168   @ Florida Atlantic L 68-85 26%     1 - 6 -14.5 -1.9 -12.3
  Nov 28, 2018 223   Florida International L 80-81 58%     1 - 7 -7.4 -0.4 -6.9
  Dec 02, 2018 153   Colgate L 56-74 42%     1 - 8 -20.2 -19.4 -1.1
  Dec 05, 2018 280   @ Oral Roberts W 96-76 49%     2 - 8 +16.1 +22.7 -5.8
  Dec 16, 2018 219   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 76-53 36%     3 - 8 +22.4 +10.2 +13.3
  Dec 22, 2018 29   Florida L 56-77 7%     3 - 9 -8.2 -6.3 -2.2
  Dec 29, 2018 38   @ Mississippi L 57-87 6%     3 - 10 -16.2 -6.7 -11.3
  Jan 05, 2019 99   Liberty L 63-81 27%     3 - 11 0 - 1 -15.7 -0.4 -17.9
  Jan 08, 2019 319   @ North Alabama L 56-61 62%     3 - 12 0 - 2 -12.3 -14.9 +2.3
  Jan 12, 2019 212   @ North Florida L 66-87 35%     3 - 13 0 - 3 -21.4 -15.1 -4.0
  Jan 19, 2019 341   @ Kennesaw St. W 72-59 75%     4 - 13 1 - 3 +1.8 -7.4 +8.8
  Jan 21, 2019 335   Stetson W 87-65 85%     5 - 13 2 - 3 +6.9 +0.5 +5.0
  Jan 24, 2019 48   @ Lipscomb L 81-89 7%     5 - 14 2 - 4 +4.1 +4.0 +1.2
  Jan 27, 2019 212   North Florida W 88-80 57%     6 - 14 3 - 4 +2.1 +3.1 -1.8
  Jan 30, 2019 197   @ NJIT L 54-66 32%     6 - 15 3 - 5 -11.4 -13.5 +1.7
  Feb 02, 2019 248   Jacksonville W 73-60 64%     7 - 15 4 - 5 +5.1 -5.5 +10.1
  Feb 06, 2019 319   North Alabama W 71-64 79%     8 - 15 5 - 5 -5.8 -4.8 -0.8
  Feb 09, 2019 99   @ Liberty L 67-74 13%     8 - 16 5 - 6 +0.8 +5.8 -6.0
  Feb 13, 2019 197   NJIT W 57-55 53%     9 - 16 6 - 6 -2.9 -7.9 +5.3
  Feb 16, 2019 335   @ Stetson L 55-67 70%     9 - 17 6 - 7 -21.6 -14.1 -9.5
  Feb 20, 2019 48   Lipscomb L 71-82 16%    
  Feb 23, 2019 341   Kennesaw St. W 76-64 88%    
  Mar 01, 2019 248   @ Jacksonville L 73-75 42%    
Projected Record 10.5 - 18.5 7.5 - 8.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.6 25.4 6.3 32.4 3rd
4th 0.0 12.9 12.8 0.1 25.8 4th
5th 0.5 26.5 1.4 28.3 5th
6th 3.6 7.6 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 2.2 0.2 2.4 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 6.2 47.7 39.6 6.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 6.4% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.1 0.1 6.2
8-8 39.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7 38.9
7-9 47.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.5 47.2
6-10 6.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.2
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 1.3 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.6 44.9 55.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.1%
Lose Out 5.2%