Florida International
Conference USA
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#228
Achievement Rating+2.0#149
Pace98.6#2
Improvement-1.2#269

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#225
First Shot-1.2#216
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#201
Layup/Dunks+4.8#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#169
Freethrows-1.3#246
Improvement+0.3#142

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#242
First Shot+2.3#104
After Offensive Rebounds-4.6#348
Layups/Dunks-2.4#265
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#123
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#16
Freethrows-2.2#292
Improvement-1.6#287
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.5% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 41.6% 54.6% 27.9%
.500 or above in Conference 34.8% 40.4% 29.0%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.7% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 9.8% 7.6% 12.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.1% 1.4% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 51.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 282   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 86-83 71%     1 - 0 -6.8 -6.8 -0.5
  Nov 16, 2018 239   @ Fordham L 77-83 41%     1 - 1 -7.8 -6.6 -0.3
  Nov 17, 2018 264   Columbia W 98-87 57%     2 - 1 +5.1 -0.6 +3.4
  Nov 18, 2018 332   Youngstown St. W 102-93 77%     3 - 1 -2.8 +4.0 -8.4
  Nov 28, 2018 242   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 81-80 42%     4 - 1 -0.9 +1.5 -2.5
  Dec 01, 2018 58   @ Arkansas L 89-121 8%     4 - 2 -20.4 +0.4 -13.1
  Dec 13, 2018 181   North Florida W 95-94 51%    
  Dec 18, 2018 191   South Florida W 79-78 53%    
  Dec 30, 2018 152   @ Ohio L 84-92 23%    
  Jan 03, 2019 254   @ Middle Tennessee L 80-82 43%    
  Jan 05, 2019 217   @ UAB L 81-85 36%    
  Jan 10, 2019 309   Charlotte W 84-76 76%    
  Jan 12, 2019 105   Old Dominion L 71-77 29%    
  Jan 17, 2019 83   @ Western Kentucky L 79-92 12%    
  Jan 19, 2019 129   @ Marshall L 90-100 19%    
  Jan 23, 2019 212   @ Florida Atlantic L 83-87 35%    
  Jan 26, 2019 212   Florida Atlantic W 86-84 56%    
  Jan 31, 2019 149   Southern Miss L 80-82 44%    
  Feb 02, 2019 137   Louisiana Tech L 84-87 38%    
  Feb 07, 2019 188   @ Texas San Antonio L 85-91 31%    
  Feb 09, 2019 214   @ UTEP L 79-83 36%    
  Feb 14, 2019 315   Rice W 94-86 76%    
  Feb 16, 2019 121   North Texas L 80-84 34%    
Projected Record 10.9 - 12.1 5.7 - 8.3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.9 1.2 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.2 3.7 3.2 0.2 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 2.2 5.6 0.9 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.8 3.0 0.1 9.6 8th
9th 0.2 4.1 5.9 0.6 0.0 10.8 9th
10th 0.1 2.2 7.1 2.0 0.0 11.3 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 6.1 4.1 0.2 11.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 4.4 4.9 0.7 0.0 10.6 12th
13th 0.4 2.7 3.8 1.1 0.0 8.0 13th
14th 0.3 1.5 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.5 14th
Total 0.3 2.0 5.2 10.0 14.5 16.8 16.4 13.7 10.0 6.2 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 95.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-2 81.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-3 40.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-4 8.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-5 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-1 0.1% 19.8% 17.7% 2.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5%
12-2 0.4% 12.6% 12.4% 0.2% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3%
11-3 1.3% 9.7% 9.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1
10-4 3.2% 6.3% 6.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0
9-5 6.2% 4.4% 4.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.9
8-6 10.0% 1.8% 1.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.8
7-7 13.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.6
6-8 16.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 16.3
5-9 16.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 16.7
4-10 14.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 14.4
3-11 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.0
2-12 5.2% 5.2
1-13 2.0% 2.0
0-14 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%