Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.4#19
Achievement Rating+17.8#16
Pace73.4#75
Improvement+1.2#121

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#25
First Shot+5.5#40
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#66
Layup/Dunks+2.7#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#244
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#163
Freethrows+3.4#9
Improvement+1.4#104

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#14
First Shot+6.3#23
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#17
Layups/Dunks+5.1#18
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#157
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#119
Freethrows-0.8#229
Improvement-0.3#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 34.5% 46.1% 23.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 5.1 4.7 5.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round77.8% 80.5% 75.2%
Sweet Sixteen41.0% 44.9% 37.2%
Elite Eight15.4% 17.1% 13.7%
Final Four6.2% 7.1% 5.4%
Championship Game2.2% 2.5% 1.9%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.5%

Next Game: Clemson (Away) - 49.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 27   Florida W 81-60 69%     1 - 0 +31.2 +14.0 +16.6
  Nov 11, 2018 285   @ Tulane W 80-69 96%     2 - 0 +6.8 +3.9 +2.5
  Nov 19, 2018 239   Canisius W 93-61 97%     3 - 0 +24.8 +13.1 +10.7
  Nov 22, 2018 163   UAB W 81-63 92%     4 - 0 +17.8 +2.8 +14.0
  Nov 23, 2018 23   LSU W 79-76 54%     5 - 0 +17.3 +6.8 +10.3
  Nov 25, 2018 17   Villanova L 60-66 50%     5 - 1 +9.5 +0.4 +8.2
  Nov 28, 2018 10   Purdue W 73-72 56%     6 - 1 +14.8 +0.5 +14.3
  Dec 03, 2018 237   Troy W 83-67 97%     7 - 1 +8.8 -5.5 +12.5
  Dec 08, 2018 85   Connecticut W 79-71 81%     8 - 1 +14.0 +0.5 +12.7
  Dec 17, 2018 321   Southeast Missouri St. W 85-68 99%     9 - 1 +4.1 +6.8 -2.7
  Dec 19, 2018 219   North Florida W 95-81 97%     10 - 1 +7.8 +10.6 -3.9
  Dec 22, 2018 123   Saint Louis W 81-59 87%     11 - 1 +25.3 +10.3 +14.2
  Jan 01, 2019 173   Winthrop W 87-76 95%     12 - 1 +7.6 +0.6 +5.8
  Jan 05, 2019 3   @ Virginia L 52-65 19%     12 - 2 0 - 1 +11.5 -2.1 +12.3
  Jan 09, 2019 56   Miami (FL) W 68-62 83%     13 - 2 1 - 1 +11.5 -0.9 +12.5
  Jan 12, 2019 1   Duke L 78-80 27%     13 - 3 1 - 2 +19.9 +11.8 +8.1
  Jan 14, 2019 91   @ Pittsburgh L 62-75 76%     13 - 4 1 - 3 -4.9 -3.9 -1.2
  Jan 20, 2019 102   @ Boston College L 82-87 78%     13 - 5 1 - 4 +2.4 +10.5 -8.0
  Jan 22, 2019 30   Clemson W 77-68 71%     14 - 5 2 - 4 +18.7 +14.0 +5.0
  Jan 27, 2019 56   @ Miami (FL) W 78-66 67%     15 - 5 3 - 4 +22.9 +16.0 +7.7
  Feb 02, 2019 107   Georgia Tech W 59-49 90%     16 - 5 4 - 4 +11.6 -4.4 +16.6
  Feb 05, 2019 41   @ Syracuse W 80-62 57%     17 - 5 5 - 4 +31.6 +14.0 +17.2
  Feb 09, 2019 18   Louisville W 80-75 60%     18 - 5 6 - 4 +17.7 +10.9 +6.6
  Feb 13, 2019 177   Wake Forest W 88-66 95%     19 - 5 7 - 4 +18.6 +16.6 +2.9
  Feb 16, 2019 107   @ Georgia Tech W 69-47 79%     20 - 5 8 - 4 +29.0 +1.9 +26.1
  Feb 19, 2019 30   @ Clemson W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 23, 2019 6   @ North Carolina L 80-87 24%    
  Feb 25, 2019 65   Notre Dame W 76-65 86%    
  Mar 02, 2019 32   North Carolina St. W 82-76 73%    
  Mar 05, 2019 15   Virginia Tech W 72-69 61%    
  Mar 09, 2019 177   @ Wake Forest W 79-66 89%    
Projected Record 23.8 - 7.2 11.8 - 6.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 1.8 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 10.2 3.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 3.4 21.3 11.7 0.1 36.5 4th
5th 0.6 11.5 10.4 0.2 22.7 5th
6th 0.1 4.2 10.3 1.3 15.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.6 0.6 4.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 0.8 1.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.2 1.8 9.2 25.9 35.2 22.9 4.9 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 4.9% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 2.9 0.2 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 22.9% 100.0% 5.4% 94.6% 4.1 0.5 5.0 9.7 6.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 35.2% 100.0% 3.9% 96.1% 5.0 0.1 2.0 9.5 13.4 8.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 25.9% 100.0% 2.9% 97.0% 5.8 0.0 0.3 2.6 7.3 9.6 4.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 9.2% 100.0% 1.6% 98.3% 6.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.1 3.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 1.8% 99.3% 0.6% 98.7% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
8-10 0.2% 87.5% 87.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.5%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 4.0% 96.0% 5.1 0.2 2.1 9.3 23.0 28.3 22.3 10.7 3.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.7 32.8 61.1 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 2.6 1.2 49.0 40.4 8.6 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1% 100.0% 3.0 27.9 47.6 21.0 3.5