Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.2#15
Achievement Rating+19.7#16
Pace77.0#43
Improvement-2.0#303

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#35
First Shot+3.0#94
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#32
Layup/Dunks+2.4#108
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#245
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#270
Freethrows+4.9#9
Improvement-2.9#346

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#13
First Shot+4.9#44
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#19
Layups/Dunks+6.4#14
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#203
Freethrows-2.2#295
Improvement+0.9#100
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 3.3% 3.4% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 35.3% 35.6% 14.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87.6% 87.8% 71.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.9% 87.1% 70.6%
Average Seed 5.5 5.5 6.9
.500 or above 99.6% 99.6% 96.6%
.500 or above in Conference 85.4% 85.6% 71.0%
Conference Champion 7.6% 7.7% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four2.7% 2.7% 5.3%
First Round86.4% 86.6% 69.0%
Second Round62.4% 62.7% 43.1%
Sweet Sixteen32.6% 32.8% 20.5%
Elite Eight15.0% 15.1% 9.1%
Final Four6.5% 6.6% 3.8%
Championship Game2.8% 2.8% 1.4%
National Champion1.1% 1.1% 0.6%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 98.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 19   Florida W 81-60 64%     1 - 0 +31.4 +13.7 +17.1
  Nov 11, 2018 212   @ Tulane W 80-69 90%     2 - 0 +11.0 +4.4 +6.2
  Nov 19, 2018 227   Canisius W 93-61 96%     3 - 0 +25.0 +15.5 +8.5
  Nov 22, 2018 216   UAB W 81-63 94%     4 - 0 +14.8 +2.2 +11.6
  Nov 23, 2018 51   LSU W 79-76 68%     5 - 0 +12.5 +4.3 +8.1
  Nov 25, 2018 27   Villanova L 60-66 56%     5 - 1 +6.7 +0.0 +5.9
  Nov 28, 2018 20   Purdue W 73-72 65%     6 - 1 +11.3 +0.2 +11.1
  Dec 03, 2018 206   Troy W 83-67 96%     7 - 1 +10.3 -3.0 +11.6
  Dec 08, 2018 78   Connecticut W 79-71 77%     8 - 1 +14.5 +0.7 +13.0
  Dec 17, 2018 272   Southeast Missouri St. W 87-64 99%    
  Dec 19, 2018 175   North Florida W 92-74 96%    
  Dec 22, 2018 76   Saint Louis W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 01, 2019 181   Winthrop W 92-73 96%    
  Jan 05, 2019 7   @ Virginia L 62-69 26%    
  Jan 09, 2019 46   Miami (FL) W 79-72 75%    
  Jan 12, 2019 1   Duke L 80-86 29%    
  Jan 14, 2019 122   @ Pittsburgh W 76-68 76%    
  Jan 20, 2019 100   @ Boston College W 80-74 71%    
  Jan 22, 2019 49   Clemson W 76-68 76%    
  Jan 27, 2019 46   @ Miami (FL) W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 02, 2019 74   Georgia Tech W 74-64 83%    
  Feb 05, 2019 31   @ Syracuse L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 09, 2019 32   Louisville W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 13, 2019 156   Wake Forest W 83-66 93%    
  Feb 16, 2019 74   @ Georgia Tech W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 19, 2019 49   @ Clemson W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 23, 2019 6   @ North Carolina L 83-90 27%    
  Feb 25, 2019 56   Notre Dame W 76-68 77%    
  Mar 02, 2019 28   North Carolina St. W 85-80 66%    
  Mar 05, 2019 11   Virginia Tech W 76-75 50%    
  Mar 09, 2019 156   @ Wake Forest W 80-69 83%    
Projected Record 22.9 - 8.1 11.2 - 6.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.8 2.1 0.8 0.1 7.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.5 5.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.7 6.6 2.8 0.3 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.3 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.3 3.7 0.4 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.6 3.9 0.7 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.4 1.0 0.1 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.7 1.3 0.1 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.3 0.2 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.1 6.9 10.1 13.3 15.1 15.1 13.2 9.5 5.7 2.5 0.8 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 97.6% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
16-2 81.5% 2.1    1.4 0.7 0.0
15-3 48.8% 2.8    1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0
14-4 16.6% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 3.5 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.5% 100.0% 19.2% 80.7% 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.7% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 2.2 1.0 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.5% 99.9% 10.7% 89.2% 3.0 0.3 2.8 3.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 13.2% 99.7% 8.0% 91.7% 4.0 0.0 1.1 4.0 4.1 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 15.1% 99.0% 5.4% 93.5% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 4.0 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 98.9%
11-7 15.1% 96.9% 3.1% 93.8% 6.2 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.2 3.6 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 96.8%
10-8 13.3% 92.5% 1.6% 91.0% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.4 2.8 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 92.4%
9-9 10.1% 85.1% 0.9% 84.2% 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 84.9%
8-10 6.9% 59.0% 0.6% 58.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8 58.8%
7-11 4.1% 25.9% 0.3% 25.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.0 25.6%
6-12 2.1% 7.5% 0.2% 7.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9 7.3%
5-13 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.3%
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 87.6% 5.2% 82.4% 5.5 3.3 8.3 11.6 12.2 11.7 10.5 9.0 7.5 5.6 3.8 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 12.4 86.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 92.0 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 89.7 10.3