Fresno St.
Mountain West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#59
Achievement Rating+9.5#61
Pace68.1#200
Improvement-2.2#280

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#73
First Shot+4.2#57
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#204
Layup/Dunks-1.6#234
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#246
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#16
Freethrows+1.1#107
Improvement-0.8#228

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#64
First Shot+4.1#54
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#175
Layups/Dunks+1.2#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#42
Freethrows+0.3#156
Improvement-1.4#263
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.9% 14.2% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.0% 3.2% 0.5%
Average Seed 11.7 11.7 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 5.8% 6.1% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.4% 2.6% 0.5%
First Round12.6% 12.9% 9.3%
Second Round3.4% 3.5% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 0.9% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 92.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2018 37   @ TCU L 69-77 28%     0 - 1 +6.0 -0.5 +7.0
  Nov 22, 2018 63   Northwestern W 78-59 52%     1 - 1 +26.4 +12.9 +13.6
  Nov 23, 2018 60   Miami (FL) L 76-78 51%     1 - 2 +5.8 +3.1 +2.8
  Nov 25, 2018 160   Hawaii W 79-64 78%     2 - 2 +14.9 +12.5 +3.5
  Nov 28, 2018 187   Pacific W 81-78 87%     3 - 2 -1.4 -0.3 -1.3
  Dec 01, 2018 329   Cal Poly W 76-67 97%     4 - 2 -5.1 +5.1 -9.3
  Dec 05, 2018 166   Weber St. W 71-52 85%     5 - 2 +16.0 -7.6 +22.5
  Dec 08, 2018 221   Long Beach St. W 92-71 90%     6 - 2 +14.8 +8.2 +4.9
  Dec 19, 2018 257   California W 95-73 93%     7 - 2 +13.7 +8.5 +3.7
  Dec 22, 2018 300   Tennessee Martin W 93-53 95%     8 - 2 +29.3 +10.4 +18.0
  Dec 29, 2018 114   Utah Valley L 60-64 74%     8 - 3 -2.8 -13.0 +10.2
  Jan 02, 2019 338   @ San Jose St. W 73-53 95%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +9.6 +1.8 +9.0
  Jan 05, 2019 178   Colorado St. W 78-67 86%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +7.1 -2.8 +9.4
  Jan 09, 2019 49   @ Utah St. W 78-77 34%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +13.1 +12.9 +0.2
  Jan 12, 2019 13   Nevada L 64-74 30%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +3.3 +2.4 +0.1
  Jan 19, 2019 125   @ Boise St. W 63-53 57%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +16.0 -0.7 +17.8
  Jan 22, 2019 115   San Diego St. W 66-62 74%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +5.2 -3.9 +9.3
  Jan 26, 2019 178   @ Colorado St. L 65-74 73%     13 - 5 5 - 2 -7.4 -12.4 +5.4
  Jan 30, 2019 298   @ Wyoming W 75-62 88%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +7.9 +11.5 -1.8
  Feb 02, 2019 155   New Mexico W 82-70 83%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +9.8 -1.5 +9.9
  Feb 05, 2019 49   Utah St. L 81-82 55%     15 - 6 7 - 3 +5.6 +19.4 -13.9
  Feb 09, 2019 151   @ UNLV W 83-65 67%     16 - 6 8 - 3 +21.5 +16.8 +6.2
  Feb 13, 2019 125   Boise St. W 65-63 76%     17 - 6 9 - 3 +2.5 -2.4 +5.1
  Feb 16, 2019 155   @ New Mexico W 81-73 67%     18 - 6 10 - 3 +11.3 +8.5 +2.7
  Feb 20, 2019 239   Air Force W 76-61 93%    
  Feb 23, 2019 13   @ Nevada L 68-79 15%    
  Feb 27, 2019 298   Wyoming W 79-61 96%    
  Mar 06, 2019 115   @ San Diego St. W 70-69 53%    
  Mar 09, 2019 338   San Jose St. W 81-57 99%    
Projected Record 21.6 - 7.4 13.6 - 4.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.4 4.4 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 21.3 39.8 3.0 65.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.1 19.2 5.5 28.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 5.2 40.5 46.6 7.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 59.2% 4.4    0.9 2.8 0.7
14-4 2.9% 1.4    0.1 0.6 0.7
13-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 5.8% 5.8 1.0 3.4 1.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 7.5% 33.6% 18.5% 15.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.0 18.5%
14-4 46.6% 14.7% 11.8% 2.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.0 1.0 0.1 39.7 3.3%
13-5 40.5% 10.2% 9.8% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 36.3 0.5%
12-6 5.2% 7.0% 7.0% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.8
11-7 0.2% 4.9% 4.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.9% 11.2% 2.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 4.3 5.9 2.4 0.2 0.0 86.1 3.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 10.4 0.4 2.5 6.0 8.3 28.3 43.7 10.2 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8% 26.2% 11.7 0.3 1.4 7.8 13.2 3.4 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2% 14.0% 11.9 0.4 3.7 7.3 2.5 0.1