Fresno St.
Mountain West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#62
Achievement Rating+11.2#49
Pace69.8#185
Improvement+0.3#152

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#76
First Shot+4.6#59
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#210
Layup/Dunks+0.8#154
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#24
Freethrows+0.6#141
Improvement+0.0#177

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#67
First Shot+3.6#62
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#147
Layups/Dunks+4.2#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#232
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#162
Freethrows-0.2#189
Improvement+0.4#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.2% 22.5% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.7% 13.8% 4.8%
Average Seed 10.6 10.6 11.5
.500 or above 98.8% 99.3% 94.7%
.500 or above in Conference 92.3% 93.2% 85.6%
Conference Champion 9.1% 9.5% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four5.7% 6.1% 2.6%
First Round18.3% 19.5% 9.6%
Second Round7.0% 7.4% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 2.4% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.8% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Home) - 88.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2018 26   @ TCU L 69-77 23%     0 - 1 +7.6 +0.9 +7.2
  Nov 22, 2018 50   Northwestern W 78-59 43%     1 - 1 +28.6 +11.3 +17.4
  Nov 23, 2018 46   Miami (FL) L 76-78 42%     1 - 2 +7.9 +3.3 +4.6
  Nov 25, 2018 186   Hawaii W 79-64 82%     2 - 2 +13.4 +11.7 +2.8
  Nov 28, 2018 163   Pacific W 81-78 85%     3 - 2 +0.0 -1.1 +0.8
  Dec 01, 2018 306   Cal Poly W 76-67 95%     4 - 2 -2.1 +5.6 -6.8
  Dec 05, 2018 168   Weber St. W 71-52 85%     5 - 2 +15.6 -7.7 +22.1
  Dec 08, 2018 198   Long Beach St. W 92-71 88%     6 - 2 +15.9 +9.8 +4.5
  Dec 19, 2018 192   California W 78-65 89%    
  Dec 22, 2018 301   Tennessee Martin W 85-66 96%    
  Dec 29, 2018 130   Utah Valley W 75-67 78%    
  Jan 02, 2019 323   @ San Jose St. W 77-62 92%    
  Jan 05, 2019 211   Colorado St. W 82-68 90%    
  Jan 09, 2019 44   @ Utah St. L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 12, 2019 10   Nevada L 73-79 29%    
  Jan 19, 2019 134   @ Boise St. W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 22, 2019 74   San Diego St. W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 26, 2019 211   @ Colorado St. W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 30, 2019 224   @ Wyoming W 80-71 79%    
  Feb 02, 2019 148   New Mexico W 86-76 81%    
  Feb 05, 2019 44   Utah St. W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 09, 2019 129   @ UNLV W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 13, 2019 134   Boise St. W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 16, 2019 148   @ New Mexico W 83-79 64%    
  Feb 20, 2019 243   Air Force W 77-61 92%    
  Feb 23, 2019 10   @ Nevada L 70-82 14%    
  Feb 27, 2019 224   Wyoming W 83-68 90%    
  Mar 06, 2019 74   @ San Diego St. L 73-75 42%    
  Mar 09, 2019 323   San Jose St. W 80-59 97%    
Projected Record 20.5 - 8.5 11.9 - 6.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 3.4 2.7 1.1 0.2 9.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 7.1 8.7 4.5 0.9 23.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 9.2 8.0 2.5 0.1 24.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.9 7.8 5.2 0.9 0.0 18.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.3 1.4 0.2 7.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.3 7.5 11.2 14.8 17.0 16.3 12.7 8.0 3.6 1.1 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.1
16-2 74.1% 2.7    1.5 1.1 0.0
15-3 43.1% 3.4    1.3 1.8 0.3
14-4 11.9% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1
13-5 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 4.4 3.8 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 1.1% 91.9% 27.9% 64.0% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 88.8%
16-2 3.6% 76.0% 25.1% 51.0% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 68.0%
15-3 8.0% 58.4% 20.9% 37.6% 10.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.3 47.5%
14-4 12.7% 42.0% 16.5% 25.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.4 30.5%
13-5 16.3% 21.5% 11.3% 10.3% 11.4 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 12.8 11.6%
12-6 17.0% 12.4% 7.8% 4.6% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 14.9 5.0%
11-7 14.8% 6.5% 5.2% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 13.9 1.4%
10-8 11.2% 3.9% 3.9% 12.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 10.7
9-9 7.5% 1.9% 1.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.4
8-10 4.3% 2.3% 2.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.2
7-11 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.2% 9.7% 11.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 1.6 3.6 5.8 5.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 78.8 12.7%