George Mason
Atlantic 10
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#139
Achievement Rating+3.2#132
Pace70.7#133
Improvement+1.3#120

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#170
First Shot+3.0#84
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#337
Layup/Dunks+2.2#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#272
Freethrows+1.0#117
Improvement+0.7#153

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#131
First Shot+0.5#156
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#75
Layups/Dunks+0.0#176
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#181
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#205
Freethrows+1.2#98
Improvement+0.6#143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 5.9% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.2
.500 or above 98.2% 100.0% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 2.0% 2.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.2% 5.9% 3.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Home) - 65.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 132   Penn L 71-72 58%     0 - 1 -1.2 -4.5 +3.4
  Nov 09, 2018 208   American L 75-78 76%     0 - 2 -8.6 -6.5 -1.8
  Nov 13, 2018 128   @ Georgia Southern L 89-98 35%     0 - 3 -3.2 +4.9 -6.7
  Nov 17, 2018 342   Southern W 69-65 95%     1 - 3 -13.2 -9.1 -4.0
  Nov 20, 2018 309   NC Central W 78-63 89%     2 - 3 +3.5 +3.8 +0.3
  Nov 23, 2018 31   Cincinnati L 55-71 16%     2 - 4 -3.7 -7.6 +2.9
  Nov 24, 2018 33   Baylor L 61-72 18%     2 - 5 +0.7 -7.5 +8.3
  Nov 28, 2018 334   Morgan St. W 82-75 93%     3 - 5 -8.1 -0.2 -8.3
  Dec 01, 2018 204   @ William & Mary W 87-84 56%     4 - 5 +3.2 +14.2 -11.0
  Dec 03, 2018 81   Vermont L 67-72 44%     4 - 6 -1.6 -4.5 +2.9
  Dec 07, 2018 258   James Madison W 66-53 83%     5 - 6 +4.6 -10.8 +15.6
  Dec 21, 2018 301   Navy W 84-63 88%     6 - 6 +10.3 +6.3 +3.7
  Dec 29, 2018 25   @ Kansas St. L 58-59 10%     6 - 7 +15.0 +5.1 +9.8
  Jan 03, 2019 182   @ Saint Joseph's W 85-60 52%     7 - 7 1 - 0 +26.4 +13.4 +13.5
  Jan 06, 2019 133   St. Bonaventure W 68-53 59%     8 - 7 2 - 0 +14.5 +6.4 +10.1
  Jan 09, 2019 79   Davidson L 56-61 44%     8 - 8 2 - 1 -1.5 -14.0 +12.4
  Jan 13, 2019 140   @ Rhode Island W 84-67 40%     9 - 8 3 - 1 +21.5 +15.2 +6.2
  Jan 16, 2019 190   @ Massachusetts W 68-63 54%     10 - 8 4 - 1 +5.9 -1.8 +8.0
  Jan 19, 2019 226   Fordham W 71-68 79%     11 - 8 5 - 1 -3.7 -4.5 +0.8
  Jan 23, 2019 72   @ Dayton W 67-63 23%     12 - 8 6 - 1 +13.6 +3.6 +10.4
  Jan 26, 2019 256   George Washington W 62-55 83%     13 - 8 7 - 1 -1.3 -13.6 +12.2
  Feb 02, 2019 47   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 63-79 17%     13 - 9 7 - 2 -3.9 -1.9 -1.2
  Feb 06, 2019 179   @ Richmond L 67-81 51%     13 - 10 7 - 3 -12.4 -7.3 -5.2
  Feb 10, 2019 198   La Salle W 84-76 74%     14 - 10 8 - 3 +3.0 +7.9 -5.1
  Feb 13, 2019 190   Massachusetts W 80-75 73%     15 - 10 9 - 3 +0.4 +2.9 -2.6
  Feb 17, 2019 133   @ St. Bonaventure L 56-79 38%     15 - 11 9 - 4 -18.0 -5.1 -15.5
  Feb 23, 2019 152   Duquesne W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 27, 2019 179   Richmond W 75-69 71%    
  Mar 02, 2019 121   @ Saint Louis L 64-68 33%    
  Mar 05, 2019 47   Virginia Commonwealth L 65-70 34%    
  Mar 09, 2019 256   @ George Washington W 72-67 66%    
Projected Record 17.7 - 13.3 11.7 - 6.3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 5.7 2.1 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.7 19.6 12.0 0.8 36.2 3rd
4th 0.9 16.1 12.3 0.9 30.2 4th
5th 0.0 5.4 8.3 0.5 14.2 5th
6th 0.6 5.0 0.5 6.1 6th
7th 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 2.1 12.0 28.7 33.7 19.1 4.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 33.2% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1
13-5 2.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 4.4% 10.1% 10.1% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.9
13-5 19.1% 7.6% 7.6% 13.7 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 17.7
12-6 33.7% 5.8% 5.8% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 31.8
11-7 28.7% 3.9% 3.9% 14.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 27.6
10-8 12.0% 2.0% 2.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.8
9-9 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 2.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 1.2 0.0 94.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.7 3.6 31.2 55.3 9.7 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6%
Lose Out 1.0%