Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#102
Achievement Rating+2.7#135
Pace68.1#201
Improvement+0.0#189

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#104
First Shot+1.2#146
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#79
Layup/Dunks+1.1#141
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#203
Freethrows+0.6#137
Improvement+0.7#154

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#114
First Shot+1.5#125
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#102
Layups/Dunks-0.6#203
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#215
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#120
Freethrows+0.8#121
Improvement-0.8#223
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.5% 25.3% 20.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round24.5% 25.3% 20.1%
Second Round3.2% 3.4% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Home) - 85.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 77   @ South Dakota St. L 74-79 34%     0 - 1 +4.1 +0.7 +3.6
  Nov 10, 2018 353   Delaware St. W 89-47 99%     1 - 1 +17.9 +1.1 +14.6
  Nov 12, 2018 248   Jacksonville W 76-59 88%     2 - 1 +9.1 +1.0 +8.3
  Nov 16, 2018 259   Arkansas St. W 96-72 89%     3 - 1 +15.6 +10.6 +3.3
  Nov 22, 2018 50   Seton Hall L 75-82 33%     3 - 2 +2.3 +7.6 -5.3
  Nov 23, 2018 95   Utah L 66-75 49%     3 - 3 -3.9 -1.5 -3.4
  Nov 25, 2018 198   La Salle W 82-70 75%     4 - 3 +9.7 +1.0 +7.5
  Dec 01, 2018 125   Boise St. W 69-67 66%     5 - 3 +2.5 +0.4 +2.2
  Dec 09, 2018 13   Nevada L 66-74 15%     5 - 4 +8.1 +0.1 +8.0
  Dec 15, 2018 27   @ Texas L 60-98 15%     5 - 5 -22.3 -5.4 -16.8
  Dec 19, 2018 180   @ Northern Iowa W 73-62 63%     6 - 5 +12.5 +8.9 +4.9
  Dec 22, 2018 350   Mississippi Valley W 85-64 98%     7 - 5 +0.6 +5.7 -4.7
  Dec 29, 2018 103   @ San Diego L 58-61 40%     7 - 6 +4.5 -3.3 +7.4
  Jan 03, 2019 114   Utah Valley W 71-60 64%     8 - 6 1 - 0 +12.2 -2.3 +14.5
  Jan 05, 2019 193   Seattle W 71-57 82%     9 - 6 2 - 0 +9.3 -1.3 +10.8
  Jan 10, 2019 62   @ New Mexico St. L 75-77 30%     9 - 7 2 - 1 +8.2 +6.0 +2.3
  Jan 12, 2019 186   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 69-65 64%     10 - 7 3 - 1 +5.2 +1.3 +3.8
  Jan 17, 2019 351   Chicago St. W 80-46 99%     11 - 7 4 - 1 +11.3 -9.5 +18.3
  Jan 19, 2019 229   UMKC W 78-50 86%     12 - 7 5 - 1 +21.1 +3.8 +18.1
  Jan 26, 2019 217   @ California Baptist W 90-73 70%     13 - 7 6 - 1 +16.5 +17.3 -0.3
  Feb 02, 2019 200   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-59 67%     14 - 7 7 - 1 +13.4 +1.0 +12.9
  Feb 07, 2019 186   UT Rio Grande Valley L 69-72 81%     14 - 8 7 - 2 -7.4 +1.4 -8.9
  Feb 09, 2019 62   New Mexico St. L 64-67 50%     14 - 9 7 - 3 +1.7 +3.2 -1.9
  Feb 14, 2019 229   @ UMKC L 75-87 73%     14 - 10 7 - 4 -13.4 +1.8 -15.3
  Feb 16, 2019 351   @ Chicago St. W 90-59 97%     15 - 10 8 - 4 +13.9 +9.9 +4.2
  Feb 21, 2019 217   California Baptist W 80-69 85%    
  Mar 02, 2019 200   Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-65 83%    
  Mar 07, 2019 114   @ Utah Valley L 72-74 42%    
  Mar 09, 2019 193   @ Seattle W 71-67 64%    
Projected Record 17.7 - 11.3 10.7 - 5.3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 9.5 34.5 20.3 64.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.6 18.2 8.0 29.8 3rd
4th 0.2 3.2 1.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.8 7.6 28.7 42.5 20.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.4% 0.1    0.1
11-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 20.4% 31.0% 31.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.6 1.1 0.0 14.1
11-5 42.5% 25.8% 25.8% 13.9 0.1 2.7 6.6 1.6 0.0 31.5
10-6 28.7% 20.5% 20.5% 14.2 0.0 0.5 3.4 1.9 0.0 22.8
9-7 7.6% 16.0% 16.0% 14.4 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 6.4
8-8 0.8% 12.6% 12.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 24.5% 24.5% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 1.5 6.9 11.8 4.1 0.1 75.5 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.3% 100.0% 12.9 0.0 1.7 22.5 57.5 18.1 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.1%
Lose Out 0.3%