Houston Baptist
Southland
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#288
Achievement Rating-8.1#284
Pace79.8#17
Improvement-1.8#262

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#250
First Shot-2.3#253
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#187
Layup/Dunks+2.8#79
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#285
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#308
Freethrows+1.1#104
Improvement-4.9#332

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#301
First Shot-2.6#254
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#327
Layups/Dunks-2.7#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#106
Freethrows-2.1#304
Improvement+3.1#33
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.5% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 0.9% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 38.0% 46.6% 11.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four1.0% 1.2% 0.6%
First Round0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 75.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 84   @ Arizona L 60-90 8%     0 - 1 -21.3 -9.6 -10.6
  Nov 10, 2018 226   Fordham W 75-72 48%     1 - 1 -3.7 +2.0 -5.6
  Nov 17, 2018 15   @ Wisconsin L 59-96 2%     1 - 2 -18.7 -3.6 -14.3
  Nov 23, 2018 176   @ Wake Forest W 93-91 19%     2 - 2 +4.1 +9.5 -5.7
  Nov 26, 2018 134   Texas San Antonio L 82-86 26%     2 - 3 -4.6 -3.1 -0.9
  Dec 01, 2018 136   @ Louisiana Tech L 78-85 13%     2 - 4 -2.1 +6.0 -7.9
  Dec 08, 2018 124   @ Texas St. L 80-90 11%     2 - 5 -4.0 +10.3 -14.1
  Dec 17, 2018 174   @ Samford L 61-85 19%     2 - 6 -21.8 -12.6 -8.8
  Dec 19, 2018 60   @ Miami (FL) L 73-80 6%     2 - 7 +3.5 +5.1 -1.6
  Jan 02, 2019 245   Lamar W 88-82 52%     3 - 7 1 - 0 -1.7 -6.6 +3.7
  Jan 05, 2019 269   @ New Orleans L 76-81 36%     3 - 8 1 - 1 -8.5 -4.4 -3.4
  Jan 12, 2019 322   @ Nicholls St. L 76-77 52%     3 - 9 1 - 2 -8.7 -1.7 -7.0
  Jan 16, 2019 169   @ Abilene Christian L 68-75 18%     3 - 10 1 - 3 -4.5 -1.6 -3.0
  Jan 19, 2019 173   Sam Houston St. L 65-71 35%     3 - 11 1 - 4 -9.3 -13.4 +4.5
  Jan 23, 2019 242   SE Louisiana L 67-70 51%     3 - 12 1 - 5 -10.5 -7.6 -2.9
  Jan 26, 2019 324   @ McNeese St. L 73-79 53%     3 - 13 1 - 6 -13.9 -10.9 -2.6
  Jan 30, 2019 339   @ Incarnate Word W 96-92 63%     4 - 13 2 - 6 -6.7 +5.2 -12.4
  Feb 02, 2019 282   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-72 59%     5 - 13 3 - 6 -8.5 -7.6 -1.0
  Feb 06, 2019 274   Stephen F. Austin L 77-79 58%     5 - 14 3 - 7 -11.2 -2.9 -8.2
  Feb 13, 2019 302   @ Central Arkansas W 75-71 43%     6 - 14 4 - 7 -1.3 -7.6 +6.0
  Feb 16, 2019 322   Nicholls St. W 88-82 72%     7 - 14 5 - 7 -7.2 -3.5 -4.6
  Feb 20, 2019 331   Northwestern St. W 80-73 76%    
  Feb 23, 2019 173   @ Sam Houston St. L 71-80 18%    
  Feb 27, 2019 245   @ Lamar L 76-81 31%    
  Mar 02, 2019 324   McNeese St. W 82-76 73%    
  Mar 06, 2019 339   Incarnate Word W 82-73 81%    
  Mar 09, 2019 282   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 72-75 37%    
Projected Record 10.1 - 16.9 8.1 - 9.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 0.9 3.3 4th
5th 0.1 3.9 5.4 0.3 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 4.5 15.2 2.3 0.0 22.0 6th
7th 1.1 16.1 6.9 0.1 24.2 7th
8th 0.0 6.2 11.1 0.5 17.8 8th
9th 0.7 9.3 2.2 0.0 12.2 9th
10th 0.0 2.8 3.9 0.1 6.8 10th
11th 0.3 2.5 0.3 3.1 11th
12th 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.8 6.2 20.9 34.1 26.6 10.0 1.4 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.4% 6.3% 6.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
10-8 10.0% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 9.7
9-9 26.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 26.1
8-10 34.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.3 33.8
7-11 20.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.9
6-12 6.2% 6.2
5-13 0.8% 0.8
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 15.5 1.2 45.9 52.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 0.8%