Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#165
Achievement Rating+0.4#162
Pace68.1#202
Improvement+0.2#180

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#179
First Shot-0.3#190
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#156
Layup/Dunks-2.8#283
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#43
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#153
Freethrows-0.9#239
Improvement-0.5#213

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#180
First Shot-0.4#183
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#166
Layups/Dunks+2.4#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#269
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#267
Freethrows+0.5#138
Improvement+0.7#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 8.8% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.0
.500 or above 45.6% 65.5% 28.3%
.500 or above in Conference 62.5% 85.4% 42.5%
Conference Champion 1.0% 2.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.0% 2.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round7.1% 8.8% 5.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 46.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 230   Florida Gulf Coast W 74-66 74%     1 - 0 +1.0 -2.7 +3.6
  Nov 10, 2018 69   @ Belmont L 89-100 17%     1 - 1 -1.2 +9.2 -9.3
  Nov 13, 2018 351   Chicago St. W 75-71 97%     2 - 1 -18.7 -10.8 -8.0
  Nov 19, 2018 113   Georgia L 68-80 34%     2 - 2 -7.9 -3.5 -4.5
  Nov 20, 2018 126   Akron W 73-68 37%     3 - 2 +8.2 +9.1 -0.7
  Nov 21, 2018 125   Boise St. W 73-70 37%     4 - 2 +6.2 +2.1 +4.2
  Nov 28, 2018 73   BYU W 92-89 34%     5 - 2 +6.9 -0.8 +7.1
  Dec 01, 2018 115   San Diego St. L 65-75 44%     5 - 3 -8.8 -7.1 -1.7
  Dec 05, 2018 196   @ Illinois-Chicago L 75-94 47%     5 - 4 -18.3 -2.1 -14.8
  Dec 08, 2018 38   Mississippi L 74-81 21%     5 - 5 +1.2 +3.6 -2.3
  Dec 16, 2018 306   Cleveland St. W 88-77 85%     6 - 5 -0.2 -6.7 +4.6
  Dec 21, 2018 52   @ Central Florida L 56-77 13%     6 - 6 -9.1 -4.8 -6.4
  Jan 02, 2019 184   @ Valparaiso L 56-58 44%     6 - 7 0 - 1 -0.6 -10.9 +10.2
  Jan 05, 2019 201   Evansville W 58-46 69%     7 - 7 1 - 1 +6.8 -11.1 +18.6
  Jan 08, 2019 180   Northern Iowa W 70-69 64%     8 - 7 2 - 1 -3.0 +0.8 -3.7
  Jan 12, 2019 116   @ Loyola Chicago L 64-67 25%     8 - 8 2 - 2 +3.7 +5.8 -2.6
  Jan 15, 2019 145   Southern Illinois W 59-58 54%     9 - 8 3 - 2 -0.2 -9.5 +9.4
  Jan 19, 2019 201   @ Evansville W 78-70 48%     10 - 8 4 - 2 +8.3 +8.3 +0.1
  Jan 23, 2019 156   @ Bradley L 68-85 37%     10 - 9 4 - 3 -13.8 -0.6 -13.3
  Jan 27, 2019 199   Indiana St. W 76-62 68%     11 - 9 5 - 3 +9.0 +10.4 +0.2
  Jan 30, 2019 130   @ Drake W 69-55 29%     12 - 9 6 - 3 +19.5 +5.8 +15.3
  Feb 02, 2019 116   Loyola Chicago W 65-57 45%     13 - 9 7 - 3 +9.1 +3.0 +7.2
  Feb 05, 2019 184   Valparaiso L 53-69 65%     13 - 10 7 - 4 -20.1 -16.3 -5.0
  Feb 10, 2019 148   @ Missouri St. L 65-66 34%     13 - 11 7 - 5 +3.0 +3.8 -1.0
  Feb 13, 2019 180   @ Northern Iowa L 64-77 43%     13 - 12 7 - 6 -11.5 -2.3 -10.4
  Feb 16, 2019 156   Bradley L 59-65 58%     13 - 13 7 - 7 -8.3 -4.8 -4.4
  Feb 20, 2019 199   @ Indiana St. L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 24, 2019 130   Drake L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 27, 2019 148   Missouri St. W 70-69 56%    
  Mar 02, 2019 145   @ Southern Illinois L 66-71 33%    
Projected Record 14.9 - 15.1 8.9 - 9.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 2.6 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.5 8.6 1.6 10.7 3rd
4th 0.3 12.6 10.6 23.5 4th
5th 0.0 4.4 16.7 0.9 21.9 5th
6th 0.4 13.5 5.7 0.0 19.6 6th
7th 3.5 9.3 0.6 13.4 7th
8th 4.2 0.9 5.1 8th
9th 0.9 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 9.0 28.5 36.0 21.3 5.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 19.1% 1.0    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 5.1% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.4
10-8 21.3% 10.6% 10.6% 14.7 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.1 19.1
9-9 36.0% 7.9% 7.9% 14.9 0.0 0.5 2.0 0.3 33.2
8-10 28.5% 3.9% 3.9% 15.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 27.4
7-11 9.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.8
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.4 0.8 92.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 13.9 0.3 21.6 61.7 16.2 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 4.3%