Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#150
Achievement Rating+1.5#154
Pace71.1#151
Improvement+0.3#152

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#135
First Shot+0.2#182
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#104
Layup/Dunks-0.4#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#160
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#170
Freethrows+0.1#169
Improvement-0.4#208

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#183
First Shot+0.7#152
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#263
Layups/Dunks+1.5#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#171
Freethrows-0.5#211
Improvement+0.7#122
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.5% 8.0% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 47.1% 51.8% 28.1%
.500 or above in Conference 53.5% 55.8% 44.4%
Conference Champion 8.1% 8.8% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 11.1% 10.1% 15.3%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round7.3% 7.8% 5.4%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Home) - 80.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 240   Florida Gulf Coast W 74-66 79%     1 - 0 +0.2 -4.6 +4.7
  Nov 10, 2018 86   @ Belmont L 89-100 22%     1 - 1 -2.1 +9.7 -10.7
  Nov 13, 2018 349   Chicago St. W 75-71 96%     2 - 1 -15.6 -10.2 -5.6
  Nov 19, 2018 108   Georgia L 68-80 36%     2 - 2 -7.6 -1.1 -6.5
  Nov 20, 2018 131   Akron W 73-68 42%     3 - 2 +7.7 +5.5 +2.4
  Nov 21, 2018 135   Boise St. W 73-70 44%     4 - 2 +5.4 +3.0 +2.4
  Nov 28, 2018 66   BYU W 92-89 35%     5 - 2 +7.6 +1.0 +5.9
  Dec 01, 2018 71   San Diego St. L 65-75 37%     5 - 3 -6.0 -7.6 +1.5
  Dec 05, 2018 168   @ Illinois-Chicago L 75-94 43%     5 - 4 -16.5 -3.6 -11.5
  Dec 08, 2018 64   Mississippi L 74-81 35%     5 - 5 -2.2 +0.5 -2.7
  Dec 16, 2018 257   Cleveland St. W 79-70 80%    
  Dec 21, 2018 43   @ Central Florida L 62-75 12%    
  Jan 02, 2019 158   @ Valparaiso L 71-73 41%    
  Jan 05, 2019 176   Evansville W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 08, 2019 174   Northern Iowa W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 12, 2019 97   @ Loyola Chicago L 64-72 24%    
  Jan 15, 2019 123   Southern Illinois W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 19, 2019 176   @ Evansville L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 23, 2019 128   @ Bradley L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 27, 2019 141   Indiana St. W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 30, 2019 157   @ Drake L 76-79 41%    
  Feb 02, 2019 97   Loyola Chicago L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 05, 2019 158   Valparaiso W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 10, 2019 193   @ Missouri St. L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 13, 2019 174   @ Northern Iowa L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 16, 2019 128   Bradley W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 20, 2019 141   @ Indiana St. L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 24, 2019 157   Drake W 79-76 62%    
  Feb 27, 2019 193   Missouri St. W 81-75 69%    
  Mar 02, 2019 123   @ Southern Illinois L 68-74 31%    
Projected Record 14.7 - 15.3 8.8 - 9.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.8 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.4 5.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.2 2.5 0.2 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.0 6.0 3.2 0.3 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.2 3.7 0.4 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 3.7 0.6 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.2 2.9 0.7 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.6 6.2 9.0 11.8 13.2 13.6 12.7 10.5 7.5 4.8 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 98.6% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 93.8% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 78.6% 2.1    1.5 0.6 0.1
13-5 49.6% 2.4    1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 20.1% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.1% 8.1 4.5 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 47.3% 41.8% 5.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.4%
16-2 0.4% 34.8% 33.2% 1.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.5%
15-3 1.2% 28.7% 28.3% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.6%
14-4 2.7% 23.5% 23.4% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.2%
13-5 4.8% 19.6% 19.5% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 3.9 0.1%
12-6 7.5% 15.3% 15.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.3
11-7 10.5% 11.7% 11.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 9.2
10-8 12.7% 9.1% 9.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 11.5
9-9 13.6% 6.0% 6.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 12.8
8-10 13.2% 3.7% 3.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 12.7
7-11 11.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 11.5
6-12 9.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.8
5-13 6.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 6.2
4-14 3.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-16 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-17 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.4 2.1 0.8 92.5 0.0%