Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#139
Achievement Rating+5.3#116
Pace70.3#171
Improvement+1.4#77

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#195
First Shot-1.5#225
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#111
Layup/Dunks-1.5#226
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#76
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#287
Freethrows+1.4#108
Improvement-0.2#194

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#101
First Shot+4.8#44
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#314
Layups/Dunks-1.4#228
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#27
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#115
Freethrows+1.3#105
Improvement+1.6#63
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.9% 19.4% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 2.9% 0.5%
Average Seed 13.2 12.4 13.3
.500 or above 62.8% 84.8% 60.6%
.500 or above in Conference 64.3% 76.6% 63.1%
Conference Champion 14.7% 21.4% 14.1%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 5.4% 8.7%
First Four0.6% 2.0% 0.5%
First Round11.7% 18.2% 11.0%
Second Round1.7% 4.2% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TCU (Away) - 9.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 107   @ Ball St. L 69-86 28%     0 - 1 -9.3 +2.4 -12.7
  Nov 09, 2018 208   @ Green Bay W 78-74 56%     1 - 1 +4.2 -3.3 +7.1
  Nov 24, 2018 90   Western Kentucky W 63-54 46%     2 - 1 +11.9 -3.2 +16.0
  Nov 28, 2018 323   @ San Jose St. W 86-57 81%     3 - 1 +21.6 +9.3 +11.4
  Dec 01, 2018 142   Wright St. W 69-63 62%     4 - 1 +4.6 +1.8 +3.5
  Dec 05, 2018 125   North Texas L 69-80 56%     4 - 2 -10.8 -7.1 -3.3
  Dec 16, 2018 26   @ TCU L 64-78 9%    
  Dec 22, 2018 59   Colorado L 69-76 27%    
  Jan 02, 2019 99   @ Loyola Chicago L 62-69 27%    
  Jan 05, 2019 144   Bradley W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 08, 2019 200   Missouri St. W 78-71 74%    
  Jan 12, 2019 176   @ Evansville L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 16, 2019 178   @ Northern Iowa W 67-66 49%    
  Jan 19, 2019 99   Loyola Chicago L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 23, 2019 157   Valparaiso W 71-67 66%    
  Jan 27, 2019 152   @ Illinois St. L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 30, 2019 122   @ Southern Illinois L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 02, 2019 151   Drake W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 06, 2019 176   Evansville W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 09, 2019 144   @ Bradley L 66-68 41%    
  Feb 13, 2019 157   @ Valparaiso L 68-70 45%    
  Feb 16, 2019 122   Southern Illinois W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 20, 2019 152   Illinois St. W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 23, 2019 200   @ Missouri St. W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 27, 2019 151   @ Drake L 73-75 42%    
  Mar 02, 2019 178   Northern Iowa W 69-63 69%    
Projected Record 13.9 - 12.1 9.6 - 8.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.8 3.8 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 14.7 1st
2nd 0.5 3.8 5.4 2.8 0.9 0.1 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.7 5.6 2.5 0.5 12.7 3rd
4th 0.2 3.4 5.8 2.2 0.2 12.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 5.8 2.3 0.2 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 5.0 2.7 0.2 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 4.0 3.1 0.4 8.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.0 3.0 0.6 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 2.2 0.6 6.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.5 6.5 9.2 11.0 12.8 12.5 12.2 10.4 7.2 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.0
15-3 96.2% 2.6    2.2 0.4
14-4 80.4% 3.8    2.8 0.9 0.1
13-5 53.3% 3.8    1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0
12-6 22.2% 2.3    0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1
11-7 2.9% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.7% 14.7 9.3 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.4% 61.4% 47.7% 13.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 26.1%
16-2 1.4% 54.0% 43.1% 10.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 19.2%
15-3 2.7% 33.5% 28.6% 4.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 1.8 6.8%
14-4 4.7% 32.0% 29.0% 3.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 3.2 4.2%
13-5 7.2% 22.5% 21.8% 0.7% 12.8 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 5.6 0.9%
12-6 10.4% 19.0% 18.7% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 8.4 0.4%
11-7 12.2% 12.4% 12.4% 13.6 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 10.7
10-8 12.5% 10.0% 10.0% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 11.3
9-9 12.8% 8.0% 8.0% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 11.8
8-10 11.0% 4.8% 4.8% 15.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 10.5
7-11 9.2% 3.9% 3.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.9
6-12 6.5% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.4
5-13 4.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 4.5
4-14 2.5% 2.5
3-15 1.2% 1.2
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.9% 11.4% 0.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.3 3.3 2.9 1.6 0.5 88.1 0.7%