Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#199
Achievement Rating-0.4#175
Pace72.7#84
Improvement-5.2#338

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#240
First Shot-1.1#213
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#249
Layup/Dunks+0.4#161
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#81
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#334
Freethrows+2.8#28
Improvement-1.7#261

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#177
First Shot-0.3#182
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#172
Layups/Dunks-2.9#293
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#48
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#96
Freethrows-1.2#255
Improvement-3.5#323
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.7% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 12.5% 19.9% 4.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.4% 4.5% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 39.5% 24.0% 57.4%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round2.1% 2.6% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 53.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 120   @ Ball St. L 69-86 20%     0 - 1 -10.6 +4.2 -15.7
  Nov 09, 2018 224   @ Green Bay W 78-74 46%     1 - 1 +2.9 -5.6 +8.0
  Nov 24, 2018 122   Western Kentucky W 63-54 39%     2 - 1 +9.6 -1.7 +12.3
  Nov 28, 2018 338   @ San Jose St. W 86-57 78%     3 - 1 +18.6 +8.0 +9.7
  Dec 01, 2018 141   Wright St. W 69-63 45%     4 - 1 +5.0 +3.1 +2.6
  Dec 05, 2018 138   North Texas L 69-80 44%     4 - 2 -11.8 -4.6 -6.8
  Dec 16, 2018 37   @ TCU L 70-90 7%     4 - 3 -6.0 -1.1 -3.4
  Dec 22, 2018 66   Colorado W 72-67 19%     5 - 3 +12.2 +1.6 +10.4
  Dec 23, 2018 151   UNLV W 84-79 39%     6 - 3 +5.7 +3.5 +1.8
  Dec 25, 2018 37   TCU L 69-83 11%     6 - 4 -2.7 -0.9 -1.4
  Jan 02, 2019 116   @ Loyola Chicago L 44-79 20%     6 - 5 0 - 1 -28.3 -19.3 -12.8
  Jan 05, 2019 156   Bradley W 65-60 50%     7 - 5 1 - 1 +2.7 -11.3 +13.6
  Jan 08, 2019 148   Missouri St. L 57-72 47%     7 - 6 1 - 2 -16.5 -18.1 +1.9
  Jan 12, 2019 201   @ Evansville W 72-66 40%     8 - 6 2 - 2 +6.3 -7.6 +13.1
  Jan 16, 2019 180   @ Northern Iowa L 64-69 36%     8 - 7 2 - 3 -3.5 -5.4 +1.7
  Jan 19, 2019 116   Loyola Chicago L 67-75 37%     8 - 8 2 - 4 -6.9 +3.6 -11.4
  Jan 23, 2019 184   Valparaiso W 70-53 57%     9 - 8 3 - 4 +12.9 +9.7 +6.3
  Jan 27, 2019 165   @ Illinois St. L 62-76 32%     9 - 9 3 - 5 -11.4 -2.5 -10.6
  Jan 30, 2019 145   @ Southern Illinois L 73-88 26%     9 - 10 3 - 6 -10.6 -0.3 -9.7
  Feb 02, 2019 130   Drake L 62-68 41%     9 - 11 3 - 7 -6.0 -12.5 +6.6
  Feb 06, 2019 201   Evansville W 85-62 61%     10 - 11 4 - 7 +17.8 +7.8 +8.8
  Feb 09, 2019 156   @ Bradley L 67-96 30%     10 - 12 4 - 8 -25.8 -6.7 -17.1
  Feb 13, 2019 184   @ Valparaiso W 87-82 36%     11 - 12 5 - 8 +6.4 +9.5 -3.6
  Feb 16, 2019 145   Southern Illinois L 57-79 46%     11 - 13 5 - 9 -23.2 -15.1 -8.5
  Feb 20, 2019 165   Illinois St. W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 23, 2019 148   @ Missouri St. L 68-74 27%    
  Feb 27, 2019 130   @ Drake L 70-78 22%    
  Mar 02, 2019 180   Northern Iowa W 70-68 57%    
Projected Record 12.6 - 15.4 6.6 - 11.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 1.1 2.8 5th
6th 0.4 6.0 0.3 6.7 6th
7th 5.6 5.5 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 2.5 18.0 1.6 22.1 8th
9th 4.9 24.9 11.1 0.1 41.0 9th
10th 7.6 7.3 0.2 15.2 10th
Total 12.5 34.7 35.4 15.0 2.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 2.4% 7.2% 7.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2
8-10 15.0% 4.1% 4.1% 15.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 14.4
7-11 35.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 34.6
6-12 34.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.1 0.5 34.1
5-13 12.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 12.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 14.2 7.4 65.1 26.3 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 7.8%