Iowa St.
Big 12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.2#12
Achievement Rating+16.6#21
Pace70.1#146
Improvement+1.2#122

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#12
First Shot+10.9#3
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#224
Layup/Dunks+5.6#20
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#59
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#84
Freethrows+0.4#146
Improvement+2.4#63

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#30
First Shot+6.3#21
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#209
Layups/Dunks+3.9#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#259
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#202
Freethrows+3.9#9
Improvement-1.2#246
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 41.6% 48.1% 21.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 4.9 4.6 5.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.0%
Conference Champion 28.6% 34.4% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Second Round80.4% 82.2% 74.8%
Sweet Sixteen46.0% 48.7% 37.5%
Elite Eight19.1% 20.4% 15.0%
Final Four8.0% 8.5% 6.2%
Championship Game3.0% 3.3% 2.1%
National Champion1.0% 1.1% 0.7%

Next Game: Baylor (Home) - 75.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 319   Alabama St. W 79-53 99%     1 - 0 +13.2 -0.4 +13.2
  Nov 09, 2018 87   Missouri W 76-59 88%     2 - 0 +20.1 +5.7 +14.4
  Nov 12, 2018 229   Texas Southern W 85-73 97%     3 - 0 +5.0 -1.6 +5.3
  Nov 19, 2018 81   Arizona L 66-71 83%     3 - 1 +1.1 -3.4 +4.6
  Nov 20, 2018 58   Illinois W 84-68 78%     4 - 1 +24.0 +19.0 +5.7
  Nov 21, 2018 113   San Diego St. W 87-57 87%     5 - 1 +33.9 +27.3 +10.6
  Nov 26, 2018 170   Nebraska Omaha W 82-55 95%     6 - 1 +23.9 -3.1 +25.2
  Dec 03, 2018 196   North Dakota St. W 81-59 96%     7 - 1 +17.2 +0.0 +16.4
  Dec 06, 2018 28   @ Iowa L 84-98 52%     7 - 2 +1.6 +9.7 -7.3
  Dec 09, 2018 340   Southern W 101-65 99%     8 - 2 +19.8 +15.4 +2.8
  Dec 15, 2018 129   Drake W 77-68 89%     9 - 2 +11.9 +8.2 +4.0
  Dec 21, 2018 290   Eastern Illinois W 101-53 98%     10 - 2 +38.1 +26.4 +13.7
  Jan 02, 2019 89   @ Oklahoma St. W 69-63 78%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +14.2 +3.9 +10.6
  Jan 05, 2019 11   Kansas W 77-60 59%     12 - 2 2 - 0 +30.8 +9.4 +20.9
  Jan 08, 2019 34   @ Baylor L 70-73 57%     12 - 3 2 - 1 +11.5 +8.8 +2.5
  Jan 12, 2019 25   Kansas St. L 57-58 72%     12 - 4 2 - 2 +9.3 +1.0 +8.1
  Jan 16, 2019 9   @ Texas Tech W 68-64 37%     13 - 4 3 - 2 +23.7 +9.4 +14.3
  Jan 19, 2019 89   Oklahoma St. W 72-59 89%     14 - 4 4 - 2 +15.8 +9.9 +7.7
  Jan 21, 2019 11   @ Kansas L 76-80 38%     14 - 5 4 - 3 +15.3 +13.1 +2.2
  Jan 26, 2019 39   @ Mississippi W 87-73 60%     15 - 5 +27.7 +19.3 +8.3
  Jan 30, 2019 99   West Virginia W 93-68 90%     16 - 5 5 - 3 +27.3 +12.8 +12.3
  Feb 02, 2019 26   Texas W 65-60 72%     17 - 5 6 - 3 +15.3 +3.3 +12.5
  Feb 04, 2019 35   @ Oklahoma W 75-74 57%     18 - 5 7 - 3 +15.4 +14.6 +0.8
  Feb 09, 2019 33   TCU L 83-92 75%     18 - 6 7 - 4 +0.1 +7.8 -7.0
  Feb 16, 2019 25   @ Kansas St. W 78-64 52%     19 - 6 8 - 4 +29.7 +27.0 +4.7
  Feb 19, 2019 34   Baylor W 75-68 76%    
  Feb 23, 2019 33   @ TCU W 77-75 55%    
  Feb 25, 2019 35   Oklahoma W 78-71 76%    
  Mar 02, 2019 26   @ Texas W 72-71 51%    
  Mar 06, 2019 99   @ West Virginia W 80-72 78%    
  Mar 09, 2019 9   Texas Tech W 69-67 58%    
Projected Record 22.9 - 8.1 11.9 - 6.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.6 16.2 8.7 28.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 13.6 8.3 0.3 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 8.6 12.1 0.7 21.7 3rd
4th 0.1 4.0 11.6 1.8 17.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.6 1.0 6.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 0.5 1.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.2 2.3 9.4 22.6 31.2 25.2 9.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 96.4% 8.7    6.3 2.4 0.1
13-5 64.2% 16.2    3.6 7.7 4.3 0.6
12-6 11.7% 3.6    0.1 0.6 1.6 1.2 0.2
11-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.6% 28.6 9.9 10.7 6.0 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 9.1% 100.0% 29.8% 70.2% 2.7 0.9 3.0 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 25.2% 100.0% 25.1% 74.9% 4.0 1.6 7.3 9.2 5.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 31.2% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 4.9 0.1 2.9 8.4 10.3 7.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 22.6% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 5.8 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.9 7.7 4.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 9.4% 99.9% 13.7% 86.1% 6.5 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.0 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
9-9 2.3% 99.7% 10.4% 89.3% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
8-10 0.2% 89.0% 5.5% 83.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.4%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 20.7% 79.2% 4.9 0.9 4.6 13.9 22.1 23.3 19.8 10.7 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 1.8 33.3 58.6 8.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7% 100.0% 2.8 0.2 36.8 51.7 10.4 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.8% 100.0% 3.1 22.7 49.4 24.9 2.8 0.2