Jacksonville St.
Ohio Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#145
Achievement Rating+0.7#164
Pace72.2#125
Improvement+1.9#53

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#179
First Shot-2.1#241
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#75
Layup/Dunks+2.3#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.5#346
Freethrows+0.0#179
Improvement-0.6#218

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#120
First Shot+1.4#130
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#156
Layups/Dunks+3.8#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#132
Freethrows-1.3#252
Improvement+2.5#28
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.4% 19.4% 13.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 94.1% 98.2% 92.4%
.500 or above in Conference 95.5% 97.6% 94.7%
Conference Champion 18.8% 23.8% 16.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round15.2% 19.3% 13.5%
Second Round1.5% 2.3% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 28.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 196   @ Samford L 72-92 51%     0 - 1 -19.1 -9.5 -7.1
  Nov 12, 2018 54   @ Penn St. L 61-76 16%     0 - 2 -2.9 -0.1 -3.4
  Nov 14, 2018 128   @ Bradley L 65-74 33%     0 - 3 -3.2 -1.2 -2.3
  Nov 20, 2018 294   Western Carolina W 84-53 80%     1 - 3 +23.6 +1.8 +19.1
  Nov 21, 2018 181   North Florida W 83-78 60%     2 - 3 +3.6 +6.1 -2.6
  Dec 01, 2018 329   @ North Alabama W 76-65 82%     3 - 3 +2.7 -3.2 +5.2
  Dec 08, 2018 353   @ Delaware St. W 81-54 95%     4 - 3 +9.3 -6.5 +13.5
  Dec 12, 2018 114   @ Wichita St. L 69-75 29%    
  Dec 15, 2018 200   @ Evansville W 75-74 52%    
  Dec 18, 2018 329   North Alabama W 78-62 93%    
  Dec 22, 2018 38   @ West Virginia L 67-80 11%    
  Jan 03, 2019 90   @ Belmont L 77-84 25%    
  Jan 05, 2019 280   @ Tennessee St. W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 10, 2019 318   Eastern Illinois W 78-64 90%    
  Jan 12, 2019 327   SIU Edwardsville W 81-66 92%    
  Jan 17, 2019 90   Belmont L 80-81 45%    
  Jan 19, 2019 334   Tennessee Tech W 80-64 93%    
  Jan 24, 2019 275   @ Eastern Kentucky W 85-80 66%    
  Jan 26, 2019 286   @ Morehead St. W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 31, 2019 102   Murray St. L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 02, 2019 193   Austin Peay W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 07, 2019 295   @ Tennessee Martin W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 09, 2019 273   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 74-70 66%    
  Feb 14, 2019 334   @ Tennessee Tech W 77-67 82%    
  Feb 16, 2019 280   Tennessee St. W 78-67 83%    
  Feb 21, 2019 286   Morehead St. W 80-69 84%    
  Feb 23, 2019 275   Eastern Kentucky W 88-77 83%    
  Feb 28, 2019 318   @ Eastern Illinois W 75-67 76%    
  Mar 02, 2019 327   @ SIU Edwardsville W 78-69 79%    
Projected Record 18.7 - 10.3 12.9 - 5.1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.0 5.1 6.6 3.7 0.9 18.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.5 7.9 6.9 2.1 0.1 23.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.3 7.7 9.5 5.8 1.4 0.0 28.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.5 4.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 15.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.3 7.2 10.8 14.0 16.2 16.1 13.5 8.7 3.8 0.9 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 98.2% 3.7    3.1 0.6
16-2 75.6% 6.6    3.9 2.4 0.3 0.0
15-3 38.1% 5.1    2.1 2.3 0.6 0.0
14-4 12.7% 2.0    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.8% 18.8 10.6 6.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 47.3% 46.9% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.6%
17-1 3.8% 40.6% 40.6% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 0.1%
16-2 8.7% 33.5% 33.5% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.8 0.0%
15-3 13.5% 25.2% 25.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.1 0.1 10.1
14-4 16.1% 18.0% 18.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.2 13.2
13-5 16.2% 12.6% 12.6% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.4 14.2
12-6 14.0% 8.5% 8.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 12.8
11-7 10.8% 5.3% 5.3% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 10.3
10-8 7.2% 3.4% 3.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.0
9-9 4.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 4.2
8-10 2.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.4
7-11 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
6-12 0.5% 0.5
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.4% 15.3% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 5.1 5.2 1.8 84.6 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 11.4 11.8 44.1 32.4 11.8