Jacksonville St.
Ohio Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#129
Achievement Rating+3.2#131
Pace69.1#177
Improvement+2.9#59

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#197
First Shot-3.5#278
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#22
Layup/Dunks-0.7#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#331
Freethrows-1.3#268
Improvement+1.1#132

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#74
First Shot+2.8#88
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#92
Layups/Dunks+2.2#83
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#165
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement+1.8#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 13.8% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 14.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 5.6% 6.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round13.3% 13.8% 9.8%
Second Round1.3% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 87.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 174   @ Samford L 72-92 53%     0 - 1 -17.8 -9.5 -5.9
  Nov 12, 2018 57   @ Penn St. L 61-76 23%     0 - 2 -4.2 -2.1 -2.7
  Nov 14, 2018 156   @ Bradley L 65-74 49%     0 - 3 -5.8 -1.5 -4.7
  Nov 20, 2018 289   Western Carolina W 84-53 83%     1 - 3 +23.8 -0.7 +21.8
  Nov 21, 2018 212   North Florida W 83-78 72%     2 - 3 +1.8 +6.5 -4.7
  Dec 01, 2018 319   @ North Alabama W 76-65 83%     3 - 3 +3.7 -3.1 +6.1
  Dec 08, 2018 353   @ Delaware St. W 81-54 97%     4 - 3 +8.4 -6.8 +12.8
  Dec 12, 2018 112   @ Wichita St. L 65-69 35%     4 - 4 +2.9 -5.6 +8.6
  Dec 15, 2018 201   @ Evansville W 55-50 60%     5 - 4 +5.3 -14.6 +20.0
  Dec 18, 2018 319   North Alabama W 64-50 92%     6 - 4 +1.2 -8.3 +10.5
  Dec 22, 2018 105   @ West Virginia L 72-74 34%     6 - 5 +5.4 +5.1 +0.2
  Jan 03, 2019 69   @ Belmont W 83-73 26%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +19.8 +13.6 +6.5
  Jan 05, 2019 312   @ Tennessee St. W 69-62 80%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +1.0 -2.2 +3.5
  Jan 10, 2019 296   Eastern Illinois W 69-62 89%     9 - 5 3 - 0 -3.5 -7.4 +4.3
  Jan 12, 2019 332   SIU Edwardsville W 90-54 94%     10 - 5 4 - 0 +21.7 +7.9 +12.9
  Jan 17, 2019 69   Belmont W 91-80 45%     11 - 5 5 - 0 +15.3 +1.0 +12.3
  Jan 19, 2019 328   Tennessee Tech W 65-48 93%     12 - 5 6 - 0 +2.9 -8.4 +11.9
  Jan 24, 2019 277   @ Eastern Kentucky L 70-88 74%     12 - 6 6 - 1 -21.8 -13.0 -6.2
  Jan 26, 2019 268   @ Morehead St. W 77-71 73%     13 - 6 7 - 1 +2.7 +4.6 -1.6
  Jan 31, 2019 71   Murray St. W 88-68 45%     14 - 6 8 - 1 +24.2 +13.9 +9.8
  Feb 02, 2019 137   Austin Peay L 71-74 64%     14 - 7 8 - 2 -3.7 -8.2 +4.7
  Feb 07, 2019 300   @ Tennessee Martin L 64-66 78%     14 - 8 8 - 3 -7.1 -6.7 -0.6
  Feb 09, 2019 315   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 81-64 82%     15 - 8 9 - 3 +10.2 +4.9 +5.2
  Feb 14, 2019 328   @ Tennessee Tech W 67-57 86%     16 - 8 10 - 3 +1.5 -3.7 +5.5
  Feb 16, 2019 312   Tennessee St. W 84-65 91%     17 - 8 11 - 3 +7.4 +10.9 -2.6
  Feb 21, 2019 268   Morehead St. W 77-65 87%    
  Feb 23, 2019 277   Eastern Kentucky W 83-71 88%    
  Feb 28, 2019 296   @ Eastern Illinois W 74-66 77%    
  Mar 02, 2019 332   @ SIU Edwardsville W 76-64 86%    
Projected Record 20.4 - 8.6 14.4 - 3.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 5.6 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 2.2 23.6 25.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.6 30.2 22.8 56.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 6.7 3.6 11.8 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.5 10.4 36.1 52.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 10.7% 5.6    0.1 0.9 3.4 1.2
14-4 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 5.6% 5.6 0.1 0.9 3.5 1.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 52.0% 15.8% 15.8% 13.1 0.1 1.4 4.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 43.7
14-4 36.1% 11.1% 11.1% 13.9 0.0 1.1 2.4 0.5 0.0 32.1
13-5 10.4% 9.6% 9.6% 14.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 9.4
12-6 1.5% 7.1% 7.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4
11-7 0.1% 4.5% 4.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 13.4 0.1 1.4 5.9 5.0 1.0 0.0 86.7 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.2% 100.0% 13.1 0.7 16.5 58.0 23.7 1.1 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 12.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 27.5%