James Madison
Colonial Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#258
Achievement Rating-5.7#248
Pace64.2#307
Improvement+1.1#136

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#236
First Shot-2.2#248
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#160
Layup/Dunks-1.6#232
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#209
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#221
Freethrows+1.2#97
Improvement+1.7#97

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#272
First Shot-2.8#263
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#257
Layups/Dunks-3.2#299
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#144
Freethrows-1.3#260
Improvement-0.6#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.4% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 1.5% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.4% 4.3% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.2% 3.7% 19.8%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.5%
First Round0.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Away) - 10.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 267   @ East Carolina W 73-72 41%     1 - 0 -2.2 -9.8 +7.4
  Nov 16, 2018 287   @ Charlotte W 64-59 45%     2 - 0 +0.6 -1.1 +2.2
  Nov 20, 2018 278   The Citadel L 82-91 64%     2 - 1 -18.4 -9.9 -7.3
  Nov 23, 2018 216   @ Oakland L 69-77 31%     2 - 2 -8.5 +1.7 -11.2
  Nov 24, 2018 150   Northern Illinois W 78-74 27%     3 - 2 +4.8 +19.6 -14.0
  Nov 25, 2018 280   Oral Roberts L 69-78 54%     3 - 3 -15.7 -17.0 +2.3
  Nov 29, 2018 345   Coppin St. W 81-71 87%     4 - 3 -7.8 -4.2 -4.4
  Dec 01, 2018 111   @ Old Dominion L 42-67 12%     4 - 4 -18.1 -20.7 -0.1
  Dec 04, 2018 135   Radford W 73-66 31%     5 - 4 +6.4 +4.9 +2.1
  Dec 07, 2018 139   @ George Mason L 53-66 17%     5 - 5 -8.4 -16.1 +7.5
  Dec 20, 2018 226   @ Fordham L 48-75 33%     5 - 6 -28.2 -14.5 -19.2
  Dec 28, 2018 204   @ William & Mary L 74-79 29%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -4.8 -1.6 -3.1
  Dec 30, 2018 316   @ Elon L 65-68 55%     5 - 8 0 - 2 -9.9 -3.9 -6.3
  Jan 03, 2019 252   UNC Wilmington L 83-86 60%     5 - 9 0 - 3 -11.2 -3.4 -7.6
  Jan 05, 2019 123   College of Charleston W 69-58 28%     6 - 9 1 - 3 +11.5 +0.3 +12.1
  Jan 12, 2019 253   Towson W 74-65 60%     7 - 9 2 - 3 +0.8 +9.0 -6.7
  Jan 17, 2019 249   @ Delaware L 69-76 38%     7 - 10 2 - 4 -9.4 +5.1 -15.7
  Jan 19, 2019 243   @ Drexel L 68-73 37%     7 - 11 2 - 5 -7.1 -13.2 +6.3
  Jan 24, 2019 87   Hofstra L 68-85 20%     7 - 12 2 - 6 -13.9 -6.1 -8.4
  Jan 26, 2019 101   Northeastern L 68-78 23%     7 - 13 2 - 7 -7.9 -2.5 -5.9
  Jan 31, 2019 123   @ College of Charleston L 53-70 14%     7 - 14 2 - 8 -11.0 -11.1 -2.2
  Feb 02, 2019 252   @ UNC Wilmington W 104-95 39%     8 - 14 3 - 8 +6.3 +18.1 -12.3
  Feb 09, 2019 253   @ Towson L 59-66 39%     8 - 15 3 - 9 -9.7 -5.6 -5.3
  Feb 14, 2019 243   Drexel W 71-69 58%     9 - 15 4 - 9 -5.6 -4.3 -1.2
  Feb 16, 2019 249   Delaware W 68-61 59%     10 - 15 5 - 9 -0.9 -2.9 +2.8
  Feb 21, 2019 101   @ Northeastern L 64-77 10%    
  Feb 23, 2019 87   @ Hofstra L 67-81 9%    
  Feb 28, 2019 316   Elon W 73-66 75%    
  Mar 02, 2019 204   William & Mary L 71-72 50%    
Projected Record 11.4 - 17.6 6.4 - 11.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 1.8 0.3 2.1 4th
5th 3.4 4.3 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.7 19.3 1.3 0.0 21.3 6th
7th 8.8 13.4 0.1 22.3 7th
8th 25.0 2.5 0.0 27.5 8th
9th 7.0 7.8 0.0 14.8 9th
10th 4.2 0.1 4.3 10th
Total 11.2 42.3 38.6 7.4 0.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.4% 4.1% 4.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-10 7.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.3
7-11 38.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 38.3
6-12 42.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.2 42.1
5-13 11.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 5.9%