James Madison
Colonial Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#233
Achievement Rating-3.1#206
Pace65.9#281
Improvement-1.3#271

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#260
First Shot-5.2#305
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#64
Layup/Dunks-5.2#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#264
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#209
Freethrows+2.8#46
Improvement-0.8#238

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#207
First Shot-1.2#210
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#187
Layups/Dunks+0.7#155
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#112
Freethrows-1.4#258
Improvement-0.5#229
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.7% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 29.0% 41.8% 19.8%
.500 or above in Conference 34.2% 40.0% 30.0%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.5% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 13.3% 10.4% 15.4%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round1.8% 2.4% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fordham (Away) - 41.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 259   @ East Carolina W 73-72 43%     1 - 0 -1.6 -8.9 +7.2
  Nov 16, 2018 307   @ Charlotte W 64-59 54%     2 - 0 -0.6 -3.6 +3.6
  Nov 20, 2018 184   The Citadel L 82-91 50%     2 - 1 -13.4 -8.9 -3.3
  Nov 23, 2018 235   @ Oakland L 69-77 39%     2 - 2 -9.5 -0.6 -10.0
  Nov 24, 2018 162   Northern Illinois W 78-74 33%     3 - 2 +3.9 +15.3 -10.6
  Nov 25, 2018 319   Oral Roberts L 69-78 70%     3 - 3 -18.9 -17.5 -0.5
  Nov 29, 2018 350   Coppin St. W 81-71 92%     4 - 3 -10.2 -5.8 -5.3
  Dec 01, 2018 105   @ Old Dominion L 42-67 13%     4 - 4 -17.3 -18.6 -1.4
  Dec 04, 2018 133   Radford W 73-66 34%     5 - 4 +6.6 +6.0 +1.2
  Dec 07, 2018 170   @ George Mason L 53-66 25%     5 - 5 -10.5 -17.4 +6.6
  Dec 20, 2018 250   @ Fordham L 63-65 42%    
  Dec 28, 2018 198   @ William & Mary L 71-76 31%    
  Dec 30, 2018 304   @ Elon W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 03, 2019 218   UNC Wilmington W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 05, 2019 123   College of Charleston L 63-68 33%    
  Jan 12, 2019 282   Towson W 69-64 69%    
  Jan 17, 2019 219   @ Delaware L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 19, 2019 251   @ Drexel L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 24, 2019 119   Hofstra L 70-75 32%    
  Jan 26, 2019 86   Northeastern L 67-74 25%    
  Jan 31, 2019 123   @ College of Charleston L 60-71 16%    
  Feb 02, 2019 218   @ UNC Wilmington L 73-77 35%    
  Feb 09, 2019 282   @ Towson L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 14, 2019 251   Drexel W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 16, 2019 219   Delaware W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 21, 2019 86   @ Northeastern L 64-77 12%    
  Feb 23, 2019 119   @ Hofstra L 67-78 16%    
  Feb 28, 2019 304   Elon W 73-66 72%    
  Mar 02, 2019 198   William & Mary W 74-73 53%    
Projected Record 12.9 - 16.1 7.5 - 10.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.2 6.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.8 6.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 15.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.8 6.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 15.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 4.4 5.9 2.4 0.2 0.0 13.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.7 4.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.7 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.7 7.0 10.6 13.3 15.0 14.1 12.3 9.2 6.2 3.7 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 98.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 81.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 50.5% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 17.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 21.4% 21.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 15.2% 15.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.8% 13.5% 13.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-5 1.8% 10.8% 10.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
12-6 3.7% 7.5% 7.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.4
11-7 6.2% 5.3% 5.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.9
10-8 9.2% 3.8% 3.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.8
9-9 12.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 11.9
8-10 14.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 13.8
7-11 15.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 14.8
6-12 13.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.2
5-13 10.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.6
4-14 7.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.9
3-15 3.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.7
2-16 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%