Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#138
Achievement Rating+4.4#123
Pace67.3#250
Improvement-2.3#314

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#82
First Shot+3.1#89
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#131
Layup/Dunks+3.3#78
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#143
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#259
Freethrows+1.8#84
Improvement+3.0#10

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#222
First Shot-2.9#266
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#92
Layups/Dunks+1.0#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#256
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#241
Freethrows-0.7#212
Improvement-5.3#351
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 12.5% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.2 12.9 13.5
.500 or above 91.9% 97.4% 89.3%
.500 or above in Conference 82.4% 87.1% 80.2%
Conference Champion 12.7% 16.1% 11.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round9.7% 12.2% 8.5%
Second Round1.2% 1.8% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Away) - 31.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 115   @ Wichita St. W 71-58 31%     1 - 0 +20.2 -1.4 +20.9
  Nov 11, 2018 291   Sam Houston St. W 76-69 87%     2 - 0 -3.2 -1.2 -2.1
  Nov 16, 2018 51   @ LSU L 67-74 16%     2 - 1 +5.5 +0.1 +5.1
  Nov 24, 2018 89   UNC Greensboro L 73-80 36%     2 - 2 -1.3 +3.1 -4.4
  Nov 26, 2018 219   @ Delaware L 71-75 59%     2 - 3 -4.3 +8.8 -13.9
  Dec 01, 2018 284   Houston Baptist W 85-78 86%     3 - 3 -2.9 +0.3 -3.5
  Dec 04, 2018 289   Prairie View W 82-68 87%     4 - 3 +3.9 +2.3 +1.3
  Dec 07, 2018 159   @ Stephen F. Austin W 96-93 46%     5 - 3 +6.1 +16.6 -10.8
  Dec 11, 2018 346   Mississippi Valley W 96-80 96%     6 - 3 -3.0 +15.3 -18.1
  Dec 15, 2018 118   @ Louisiana L 76-81 32%    
  Dec 22, 2018 301   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75-62 88%    
  Dec 29, 2018 148   Southern Miss W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 03, 2019 124   @ North Texas L 70-74 34%    
  Jan 05, 2019 315   @ Rice W 81-73 77%    
  Jan 10, 2019 216   UAB W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 12, 2019 252   Middle Tennessee W 75-65 83%    
  Jan 17, 2019 105   @ Old Dominion L 63-69 30%    
  Jan 19, 2019 307   @ Charlotte W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 24, 2019 131   Marshall W 81-79 58%    
  Jan 26, 2019 85   Western Kentucky L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 31, 2019 209   @ Florida Atlantic W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 02, 2019 229   @ Florida International W 87-84 61%    
  Feb 09, 2019 148   @ Southern Miss L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 14, 2019 214   UTEP W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 16, 2019 187   Texas San Antonio W 79-73 72%    
Projected Record 15.8 - 9.2 8.6 - 5.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 4.3 4.6 2.1 0.4 12.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.6 5.2 1.2 0.0 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 5.2 6.5 1.2 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.9 7.5 1.9 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 6.6 3.5 0.1 11.2 5th
6th 0.2 3.9 5.1 0.5 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 5.4 1.5 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.4 2.6 0.1 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 3.0 0.4 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 0.9 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 5.2 8.8 13.3 16.7 17.8 15.3 10.8 5.8 2.2 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
13-1 98.3% 2.1    1.8 0.3 0.0
12-2 79.4% 4.6    2.6 1.7 0.3 0.0
11-3 40.0% 4.3    1.1 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
10-4 7.8% 1.2    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 6.0 4.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.4% 43.4% 33.3% 10.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 15.2%
13-1 2.2% 33.5% 29.8% 3.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 5.3%
12-2 5.8% 23.9% 22.9% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.4 1.3%
11-3 10.8% 19.1% 18.9% 0.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 8.8 0.2%
10-4 15.3% 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 13.1 0.0%
9-5 17.8% 9.6% 9.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 16.1
8-6 16.7% 5.3% 5.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 15.8
7-7 13.3% 3.0% 3.0% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 12.9
6-8 8.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.6
5-9 5.2% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.1
4-10 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.4
3-11 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-12 0.2% 0.2
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.9% 9.7% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.2 2.9 1.1 0.2 90.2 0.2%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.1 1.7 1.7 5.1 6.8 11.9 18.6 39.0 15.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 25.0% 11.5 14.3 8.9 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 18.6% 11.0 2.3 4.7 4.7 2.3 4.7