Loyola Chicago
Missouri Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#116
Achievement Rating+2.3#140
Pace60.3#346
Improvement-3.5#309

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#157
First Shot+3.7#64
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#348
Layup/Dunks+5.4#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#194
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#238
Freethrows+0.3#153
Improvement+2.1#80

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#85
First Shot+0.8#142
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#8
Layups/Dunks+2.4#78
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#341
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#232
Freethrows+3.5#12
Improvement-5.6#347
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.6% 26.4% 22.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 99.4% 100.0% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 52.4% 59.4% 22.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round25.6% 26.4% 22.3%
Second Round2.7% 2.9% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 81.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 229   UMKC W 76-45 84%     1 - 0 +24.1 -2.0 +25.4
  Nov 09, 2018 64   Furman L 58-60 47%     1 - 1 +2.6 -12.2 +14.8
  Nov 14, 2018 299   Niagara W 75-62 91%     2 - 1 +2.4 -4.3 +7.0
  Nov 16, 2018 284   Grambling St. W 80-64 89%     3 - 1 +6.3 +3.4 +2.3
  Nov 19, 2018 179   Richmond W 82-66 69%     4 - 1 +14.9 +7.2 +8.0
  Nov 21, 2018 97   Boston College L 66-78 45%     4 - 2 -6.9 -7.6 +1.2
  Nov 27, 2018 13   Nevada L 65-79 19%     4 - 3 -0.7 +3.1 -4.8
  Dec 01, 2018 196   @ Illinois-Chicago W 73-64 62%     5 - 3 +9.7 +2.7 +7.1
  Dec 05, 2018 120   Ball St. L 69-75 61%     5 - 4 -5.1 -3.7 -1.2
  Dec 08, 2018 21   Maryland L 41-55 16%     5 - 5 +0.5 -18.3 +16.7
  Dec 16, 2018 261   Norfolk St. W 80-49 87%     6 - 5 +22.5 +14.0 +12.3
  Dec 22, 2018 182   @ Saint Joseph's L 42-45 60%     6 - 6 -1.6 -28.0 +26.1
  Jan 02, 2019 199   Indiana St. W 79-44 80%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +30.0 +13.2 +20.5
  Jan 05, 2019 130   @ Drake W 85-74 44%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +16.5 +21.4 -3.9
  Jan 08, 2019 201   @ Evansville L 48-67 64%     8 - 7 2 - 1 -18.7 -19.5 -0.2
  Jan 12, 2019 165   Illinois St. W 67-64 75%     9 - 7 3 - 1 +0.0 +3.0 -2.5
  Jan 15, 2019 184   Valparaiso W 71-54 78%     10 - 7 4 - 1 +12.9 +9.6 +6.1
  Jan 19, 2019 199   @ Indiana St. W 75-67 63%     11 - 7 5 - 1 +8.5 +11.8 -2.4
  Jan 23, 2019 148   @ Missouri St. L 35-70 50%     11 - 8 5 - 2 -31.0 -23.5 -20.0
  Jan 27, 2019 145   Southern Illinois W 75-50 69%     12 - 8 6 - 2 +23.8 +10.5 +16.2
  Jan 30, 2019 180   Northern Iowa W 61-60 77%     13 - 8 7 - 2 -3.0 -1.6 -1.2
  Feb 02, 2019 165   @ Illinois St. L 57-65 55%     13 - 9 7 - 3 -5.4 -6.8 +0.3
  Feb 05, 2019 130   Drake W 86-64 65%     14 - 9 8 - 3 +22.0 +26.1 -0.6
  Feb 10, 2019 184   @ Valparaiso W 56-51 60%     15 - 9 9 - 3 +6.4 -2.3 +9.8
  Feb 13, 2019 156   @ Bradley L 54-61 53%     15 - 10 9 - 4 -3.8 -8.3 +3.6
  Feb 17, 2019 148   Missouri St. L 61-65 70%     15 - 11 9 - 5 -5.5 +2.4 -8.9
  Feb 20, 2019 201   Evansville W 69-60 81%    
  Feb 24, 2019 145   @ Southern Illinois L 62-63 48%    
  Feb 27, 2019 180   @ Northern Iowa W 63-61 58%    
  Mar 02, 2019 156   Bradley W 64-58 73%    
Projected Record 17.6 - 12.4 11.6 - 6.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 6.6 27.9 17.8 52.4 1st
2nd 0.0 2.1 19.3 10.3 31.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 6.5 5.5 12.1 3rd
4th 0.5 2.3 2.8 4th
5th 0.6 0.2 0.8 5th
6th 0.2 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.5 11.1 31.4 38.2 17.8 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 17.8    12.9 4.9
12-6 73.1% 27.9    8.1 15.6 4.2
11-7 21.1% 6.6    0.3 1.8 3.2 1.2 0.1
10-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 52.4% 52.4 21.2 22.4 7.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 17.8% 31.5% 31.5% 13.3 0.0 0.6 3.1 1.9 0.1 12.2
12-6 38.2% 27.1% 27.1% 14.2 0.0 1.1 6.4 2.8 0.0 27.8
11-7 31.4% 23.2% 23.2% 14.5 0.2 3.3 3.7 0.2 24.1
10-8 11.1% 19.1% 19.1% 14.7 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.1 9.0
9-9 1.5% 14.3% 14.3% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.3
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.6% 25.6% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.6 4.4 12.3 8.1 0.3 74.4 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.6% 100.0% 13.3 0.3 9.8 54.9 33.5 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.5%
Lose Out 0.6%