Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#138
Achievement Rating+2.2#141
Pace64.3#305
Improvement+4.6#26

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#132
First Shot-0.5#195
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#51
Layup/Dunks-3.5#296
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#62
Freethrows+1.4#80
Improvement-3.5#313

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#149
First Shot+1.6#120
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#259
Layups/Dunks+0.4#159
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#251
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#87
Freethrows-0.3#201
Improvement+8.0#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 2.8% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.3
.500 or above 49.4% 59.6% 24.8%
.500 or above in Conference 46.6% 57.0% 21.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round2.6% 2.8% 1.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Away) - 70.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 47   @ Butler L 68-90 17%     0 - 1 -9.8 +6.1 -18.0
  Nov 16, 2018 196   North Dakota St. W 89-78 66%     1 - 1 +8.9 +21.6 -11.6
  Nov 17, 2018 108   Montana L 71-73 42%     1 - 2 +2.3 +3.7 -1.6
  Nov 18, 2018 168   Pepperdine L 80-86 60%     1 - 3 -6.4 +1.1 -7.0
  Nov 24, 2018 234   Army W 85-55 81%     2 - 3 +22.8 +9.8 +12.4
  Nov 28, 2018 82   @ Xavier L 55-82 26%     2 - 4 -18.1 -10.9 -9.4
  Dec 05, 2018 142   @ Wright St. W 65-62 42%     3 - 4 +7.4 +6.5 +1.5
  Dec 08, 2018 182   Purdue Fort Wayne W 85-79 72%     4 - 4 +2.1 +6.5 -4.4
  Dec 16, 2018 105   @ Northern Kentucky L 66-72 31%     4 - 5 +1.2 +2.4 -1.9
  Dec 20, 2018 342   South Carolina St. W 79-55 95%     5 - 5 +7.3 -0.1 +8.6
  Dec 30, 2018 203   Evansville W 70-67 76%     6 - 5 -2.2 -3.0 +0.9
  Jan 05, 2019 148   Central Michigan L 77-84 64%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -8.4 -3.3 -4.8
  Jan 08, 2019 147   Northern Illinois L 70-83 63%     6 - 7 0 - 2 -14.1 +2.7 -18.2
  Jan 12, 2019 29   @ Buffalo L 64-88 11%     6 - 8 0 - 3 -8.4 -2.4 -5.7
  Jan 15, 2019 67   @ Toledo L 59-71 23%     6 - 9 0 - 4 -2.2 -4.0 +0.9
  Jan 19, 2019 125   Akron W 68-61 57%     7 - 9 1 - 4 +7.4 +5.6 +2.5
  Jan 22, 2019 116   @ Ball St. W 71-65 34%     8 - 9 2 - 4 +12.6 +4.2 +8.6
  Jan 26, 2019 114   Bowling Green W 67-53 54%     9 - 9 3 - 4 +15.2 -0.3 +16.4
  Jan 29, 2019 67   Toledo L 63-66 42%     9 - 10 3 - 5 +1.4 -3.2 +4.4
  Feb 02, 2019 145   @ Eastern Michigan W 59-48 42%     10 - 10 4 - 5 +15.3 -4.0 +20.8
  Feb 05, 2019 149   @ Kent St. L 67-70 43%     10 - 11 4 - 6 +1.0 -3.2 +4.1
  Feb 09, 2019 208   Ohio W 79-59 77%     11 - 11 5 - 6 +14.5 +5.7 +8.4
  Feb 16, 2019 274   @ Western Michigan W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 19, 2019 116   Ball St. W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 23, 2019 125   @ Akron L 61-65 36%    
  Feb 26, 2019 114   @ Bowling Green L 69-73 33%    
  Mar 02, 2019 29   Buffalo L 72-80 24%    
  Mar 05, 2019 149   Kent St. W 74-70 64%    
  Mar 08, 2019 208   @ Ohio W 68-66 57%    
Projected Record 14.4 - 14.6 8.4 - 9.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 1.8 0.3 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 7.8 2.8 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.4 8.6 5.8 0.2 14.9 5th
6th 0.0 3.5 11.2 0.9 15.6 6th
7th 0.5 11.0 4.0 0.1 15.6 7th
8th 0.1 4.7 9.9 0.4 15.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 9.1 2.5 0.0 13.3 9th
10th 0.7 4.4 3.6 0.1 8.9 10th
11th 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 1.1 6.7 18.0 27.6 25.5 15.3 5.1 0.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.7% 10.7% 10.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 5.1% 7.8% 7.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.7
10-8 15.3% 5.1% 5.1% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 14.5
9-9 25.5% 2.4% 2.4% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 24.9
8-10 27.6% 1.5% 1.5% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 27.2
7-11 18.0% 1.1% 1.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 17.8
6-12 6.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.7
5-13 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.0 29.2 41.7 29.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.8%