Michigan St.
Big Ten
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.3#5
Achievement Rating+19.4#17
Pace70.5#164
Improvement+1.2#86

Offense
Total Offense+11.3#5
First Shot+8.9#8
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#53
Layup/Dunks+4.5#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#115
Freethrows+1.9#80
Improvement+1.1#84

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#25
First Shot+2.7#90
After Offensive Rebounds+4.3#5
Layups/Dunks+4.2#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#278
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#116
Freethrows-1.8#275
Improvement+0.1#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 26.9% 27.1% 11.6%
Top 4 Seed 81.0% 81.3% 59.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.3% 98.4% 94.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.8% 97.8% 93.1%
Average Seed 2.9 2.9 4.1
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 98.7%
.500 or above in Conference 96.7% 96.7% 91.8%
Conference Champion 32.5% 32.7% 21.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 1.2%
First Round98.1% 98.2% 93.8%
Second Round88.3% 88.5% 78.0%
Sweet Sixteen62.4% 62.5% 52.0%
Elite Eight38.4% 38.5% 28.4%
Final Four21.4% 21.5% 13.6%
Championship Game11.3% 11.3% 5.4%
National Champion5.7% 5.7% 2.8%

Next Game: Green Bay (Home) - 98.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 4   Kansas L 87-92 48%     0 - 1 +13.7 +9.2 +5.3
  Nov 11, 2018 239   Florida Gulf Coast W 106-82 98%     1 - 1 +16.2 +12.5 +0.0
  Nov 14, 2018 207   Louisiana Monroe W 80-59 98%     2 - 1 +15.3 +2.0 +12.7
  Nov 18, 2018 334   Tennessee Tech W 101-33 99%     3 - 1 +52.9 +25.6 +28.9
  Nov 22, 2018 44   UCLA W 87-67 78%     4 - 1 +30.2 +14.6 +14.5
  Nov 23, 2018 42   Texas W 78-68 78%     5 - 1 +20.3 +11.7 +8.4
  Nov 27, 2018 32   @ Louisville L 78-82 62%     5 - 2 +11.2 +4.8 +6.8
  Nov 30, 2018 98   @ Rutgers W 78-67 83%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +19.3 +20.1 +0.2
  Dec 03, 2018 39   Iowa W 90-68 83%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +30.1 +20.9 +9.9
  Dec 08, 2018 19   @ Florida W 63-59 57%     8 - 2 +20.4 +10.0 +11.0
  Dec 16, 2018 203   Green Bay W 93-69 99%    
  Dec 21, 2018 235   Oakland W 91-65 99%    
  Dec 29, 2018 162   Northern Illinois W 87-66 98%    
  Jan 02, 2019 48   Northwestern W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 05, 2019 14   @ Ohio St. W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 08, 2019 20   Purdue W 79-71 77%    
  Jan 13, 2019 54   @ Penn St. W 73-67 72%    
  Jan 17, 2019 16   @ Nebraska W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 21, 2019 30   Maryland W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 24, 2019 39   @ Iowa W 83-79 65%    
  Jan 27, 2019 20   @ Purdue W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 02, 2019 23   Indiana W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 05, 2019 91   @ Illinois W 82-72 81%    
  Feb 09, 2019 60   Minnesota W 82-69 88%    
  Feb 12, 2019 13   @ Wisconsin W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 17, 2019 14   Ohio St. W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 20, 2019 98   Rutgers W 77-61 93%    
  Feb 24, 2019 3   @ Michigan L 66-70 38%    
  Mar 02, 2019 23   @ Indiana W 75-73 58%    
  Mar 05, 2019 16   Nebraska W 78-71 74%    
  Mar 09, 2019 3   Michigan W 69-67 59%    
Projected Record 23.3 - 7.7 14.3 - 5.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.7 8.5 8.8 6.1 2.6 0.5 32.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 5.9 8.2 5.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 22.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.8 6.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.3 0.1 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.6 6.2 9.5 12.7 15.2 15.8 14.0 10.4 6.2 2.6 0.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6 0.0
18-2 97.3% 6.1    5.6 0.5 0.0
17-3 84.1% 8.8    6.6 2.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 60.7% 8.5    4.7 3.2 0.5 0.0
15-5 29.8% 4.7    1.6 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.3% 1.3    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.5% 32.5 21.8 8.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 56.6% 43.4% 1.0 0.5 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.6% 100.0% 45.9% 54.1% 1.0 2.5 0.1 100.0%
18-2 6.2% 100.0% 42.5% 57.5% 1.1 5.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.4% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.3 7.6 2.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 14.0% 100.0% 31.3% 68.7% 1.6 6.4 6.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.8% 100.0% 26.6% 73.4% 2.1 3.3 8.4 3.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 15.2% 100.0% 22.1% 77.8% 2.7 0.8 5.9 5.9 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 12.7% 99.8% 16.4% 83.4% 3.5 0.1 1.8 4.9 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 9.5% 99.4% 11.4% 88.0% 4.5 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.8 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-9 6.2% 98.2% 7.7% 90.5% 5.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.1%
10-10 3.6% 95.0% 5.6% 89.4% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 94.7%
9-11 1.9% 79.8% 4.0% 75.8% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 78.9%
8-12 0.9% 43.8% 1.5% 42.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 42.9%
7-13 0.3% 17.7% 2.9% 14.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 15.2%
6-14 0.1% 6.1% 6.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.1%
5-15 0.0% 2.9% 2.9% 13.0 0.0 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.3% 23.9% 74.4% 2.9 26.9 26.2 17.8 10.0 6.6 4.2 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 97.8%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 98.9 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0