Michigan St.
Big Ten
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+20.2#4
Achievement Rating+20.2#11
Pace69.8#156
Improvement+0.1#184

Offense
Total Offense+10.5#8
First Shot+7.9#14
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#30
Layup/Dunks+4.3#34
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#146
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#121
Freethrows+1.5#74
Improvement-2.9#302

Defense
Total Defense+9.7#7
First Shot+8.0#10
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#33
Layups/Dunks+4.0#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#68
Freethrows+1.8#66
Improvement+3.0#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 25.6% 26.5% 7.6%
Top 4 Seed 99.4% 99.5% 96.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.0 2.0 2.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 50.9% 52.5% 18.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.2% 97.3% 95.4%
Sweet Sixteen75.4% 75.6% 71.4%
Elite Eight50.2% 50.5% 43.6%
Final Four27.4% 27.7% 21.7%
Championship Game14.1% 14.3% 10.6%
National Champion6.7% 6.8% 5.0%

Next Game: Rutgers (Home) - 95.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 11   Kansas L 87-92 64%     0 - 1 +11.5 +10.0 +2.3
  Nov 11, 2018 221   Florida Gulf Coast W 106-82 98%     1 - 1 +17.8 +14.8 -0.6
  Nov 14, 2018 154   Louisiana Monroe W 80-59 97%     2 - 1 +18.9 -0.6 +18.9
  Nov 18, 2018 329   Tennessee Tech W 101-33 99.5%    3 - 1 +53.9 +27.8 +27.7
  Nov 22, 2018 92   UCLA W 87-67 91%     4 - 1 +25.3 +12.9 +11.3
  Nov 23, 2018 25   Texas W 78-68 76%     5 - 1 +23.0 +12.7 +10.1
  Nov 27, 2018 17   @ Louisville L 78-82 58%     5 - 2 +14.1 +7.6 +6.9
  Nov 30, 2018 89   @ Rutgers W 78-67 87%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +19.2 +15.5 +4.7
  Dec 03, 2018 27   Iowa W 90-68 83%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +32.2 +28.4 +4.6
  Dec 08, 2018 28   @ Florida W 63-59 67%     8 - 2 +19.6 +2.6 +17.6
  Dec 16, 2018 226   Green Bay W 104-83 99%     9 - 2 +14.1 +9.9 +0.4
  Dec 21, 2018 224   Oakland W 99-69 98%     10 - 2 +23.5 +19.0 +4.2
  Dec 29, 2018 147   Northern Illinois W 88-60 97%     11 - 2 +26.9 +10.0 +15.8
  Jan 02, 2019 63   Northwestern W 81-55 92%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +30.7 +13.4 +17.1
  Jan 05, 2019 41   @ Ohio St. W 86-77 74%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +22.6 +23.1 -0.4
  Jan 08, 2019 10   Purdue W 77-59 73%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +31.9 +15.2 +18.4
  Jan 13, 2019 56   @ Penn St. W 71-56 82%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +25.7 +6.6 +19.7
  Jan 17, 2019 36   @ Nebraska W 70-64 72%     16 - 2 7 - 0 +20.1 +6.3 +14.0
  Jan 21, 2019 21   Maryland W 69-55 79%     17 - 2 8 - 0 +26.2 +12.1 +15.8
  Jan 24, 2019 27   @ Iowa W 82-67 67%     18 - 2 9 - 0 +30.6 +21.4 +9.5
  Jan 27, 2019 10   @ Purdue L 63-73 54%     18 - 3 9 - 1 +9.3 +1.1 +7.5
  Feb 02, 2019 45   Indiana L 75-79 89%     18 - 4 9 - 2 +2.8 +2.0 +0.9
  Feb 05, 2019 57   @ Illinois L 74-79 82%     18 - 5 9 - 3 +5.7 +6.6 -0.8
  Feb 09, 2019 43   Minnesota W 79-55 89%     19 - 5 10 - 3 +31.0 +14.4 +18.2
  Feb 12, 2019 14   @ Wisconsin W 67-59 57%     20 - 5 11 - 3 +26.4 +10.3 +16.6
  Feb 17, 2019 41   Ohio St. W 62-44 87%     21 - 5 12 - 3 +26.2 +1.8 +26.2
  Feb 20, 2019 89   Rutgers W 77-60 95%    
  Feb 24, 2019 8   @ Michigan W 67-66 49%    
  Mar 02, 2019 45   @ Indiana W 74-66 77%    
  Mar 05, 2019 36   Nebraska W 76-65 87%    
  Mar 09, 2019 8   Michigan W 69-64 70%    
Projected Record 24.8 - 6.2 15.8 - 4.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.0 25.2 23.7 50.9 1st
2nd 0.3 9.7 14.2 24.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 10.8 1.6 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.6 3.9 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 1.1 7.8 26.4 41.0 23.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 23.7    14.3 8.4 1.0
16-4 61.3% 25.2    4.5 12.1 7.4 1.2
15-5 7.7% 2.0    0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 50.9% 50.9 18.8 21.0 9.2 1.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 23.7% 100.0% 43.7% 56.3% 1.4 15.3 7.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
16-4 41.0% 100.0% 39.2% 60.8% 1.9 9.5 25.2 6.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-5 26.4% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 2.5 0.8 13.9 9.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.8% 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 3.0 0.0 2.2 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.1% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 3.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 37.8% 62.2% 2.0 25.6 49.3 20.6 3.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.3% 100.0% 1.1 94.7 5.3 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.0% 100.0% 1.5 54.4 44.1 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.7% 100.0% 1.6 40.0 56.6 3.4