Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.9#17
Achievement Rating+18.3#20
Pace67.7#244
Improvement-0.3#202

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#32
First Shot+3.0#93
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#24
Layup/Dunks-0.4#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#119
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#53
Freethrows-2.1#283
Improvement+0.7#122

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#21
First Shot+5.4#34
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#60
Layups/Dunks+2.8#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#169
Freethrows+4.9#7
Improvement-1.0#260
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 3.4% 4.5% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 34.4% 42.0% 20.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.7% 90.6% 76.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83.9% 89.4% 74.3%
Average Seed 5.6 5.1 6.5
.500 or above 99.1% 99.7% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.2% 89.4% 83.2%
Conference Champion 12.7% 14.3% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
First Four2.6% 1.9% 3.8%
First Round84.5% 89.8% 74.8%
Second Round60.3% 66.0% 49.8%
Sweet Sixteen31.0% 35.3% 23.1%
Elite Eight14.0% 16.3% 9.9%
Final Four6.2% 7.3% 4.1%
Championship Game2.5% 3.0% 1.6%
National Champion1.0% 1.2% 0.6%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Home) - 65.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 194   Austin Peay W 95-67 95%     1 - 0 +23.0 +12.9 +8.0
  Nov 11, 2018 217   Hartford W 77-59 96%     2 - 0 +11.8 +4.4 +8.3
  Nov 16, 2018 197   Long Beach St. W 79-51 95%     3 - 0 +22.8 +0.1 +21.2
  Nov 19, 2018 37   Arizona St. L 67-72 59%     3 - 1 +6.6 +1.5 +5.0
  Nov 21, 2018 52   St. Mary's W 61-57 66%     4 - 1 +13.5 +0.6 +13.6
  Nov 26, 2018 345   Alcorn St. W 88-65 99%     5 - 1 +4.1 +6.3 -2.4
  Nov 30, 2018 70   @ Dayton W 65-58 65%     6 - 1 +17.0 -2.4 +19.5
  Dec 04, 2018 310   McNeese St. W 90-77 98%     7 - 1 +1.3 +12.7 -11.0
  Dec 08, 2018 49   Clemson W 82-71 66%     8 - 1 +20.6 +17.9 +3.3
  Dec 15, 2018 25   Cincinnati W 66-62 65%    
  Dec 19, 2018 67   Wofford W 74-64 82%    
  Dec 22, 2018 144   Wright St. W 76-64 87%    
  Dec 29, 2018 65   BYU W 81-72 81%    
  Jan 08, 2019 121   @ South Carolina W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 12, 2019 66   Mississippi W 80-70 81%    
  Jan 15, 2019 19   Florida W 66-63 62%    
  Jan 19, 2019 79   @ Vanderbilt W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 22, 2019 18   @ Kentucky L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 26, 2019 8   Auburn L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 29, 2019 62   @ Alabama W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 02, 2019 66   @ Mississippi W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 06, 2019 51   LSU W 77-70 75%    
  Feb 09, 2019 18   Kentucky W 75-72 62%    
  Feb 12, 2019 62   Alabama W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 16, 2019 58   @ Arkansas W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 20, 2019 110   @ Georgia W 74-68 72%    
  Feb 23, 2019 121   South Carolina W 79-66 88%    
  Feb 26, 2019 83   Missouri W 72-61 83%    
  Mar 02, 2019 8   @ Auburn L 70-77 27%    
  Mar 05, 2019 9   @ Tennessee L 66-73 27%    
  Mar 09, 2019 90   Texas A&M W 77-66 84%    
Projected Record 22.6 - 8.4 11.5 - 6.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 4.1 2.9 1.2 0.2 12.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.3 5.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.8 5.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 17.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 6.1 5.2 1.4 0.1 14.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.7 4.5 1.1 0.1 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.1 1.1 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 3.4 1.2 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.3 0.1 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 6.0 9.3 12.3 14.6 15.2 13.8 10.6 6.8 3.2 1.2 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.0% 1.2    1.1 0.1
16-2 88.9% 2.9    2.2 0.6 0.0
15-3 61.2% 4.1    2.2 1.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 29.2% 3.1    1.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.0% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 6.8 4.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 44.0% 56.0% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.2% 99.9% 35.7% 64.2% 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 3.2% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 1.8 1.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.8% 99.9% 23.8% 76.2% 2.5 0.9 3.0 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 10.6% 99.7% 19.3% 80.4% 3.4 0.2 2.5 3.9 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-5 13.8% 99.1% 14.9% 84.3% 4.4 0.0 0.9 3.3 4.0 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.0%
12-6 15.2% 97.7% 10.6% 87.1% 5.5 0.1 1.3 3.2 3.7 2.8 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 97.4%
11-7 14.6% 94.2% 7.2% 87.0% 6.6 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 3.0 2.7 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 93.8%
10-8 12.3% 87.5% 4.7% 82.8% 7.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 86.9%
9-9 9.3% 75.3% 3.1% 72.1% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 74.5%
8-10 6.0% 46.3% 1.7% 44.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.2 45.4%
7-11 3.7% 20.1% 1.4% 18.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.9 19.0%
6-12 1.8% 5.1% 0.9% 4.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 4.2%
5-13 0.8% 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.4%
4-14 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 1.1% 1.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 85.7% 10.9% 74.8% 5.6 3.4 8.3 11.0 11.7 11.2 10.0 8.7 7.4 5.9 4.1 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 14.3 83.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 92.7 7.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 86.2 13.8