Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.3#22
Achievement Rating+14.6#29
Pace69.1#176
Improvement+0.6#160

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#17
First Shot+4.9#46
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#6
Layup/Dunks+1.4#132
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#60
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#139
Freethrows+0.2#160
Improvement+2.1#79

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#41
First Shot+3.1#78
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#10
Layups/Dunks+3.1#64
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#141
Freethrows+1.7#70
Improvement-1.5#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 9.5% 11.6% 3.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.5% 99.8% 98.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.5% 99.8% 98.6%
Average Seed 6.2 6.0 6.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.1% 96.4% 74.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.1% 1.1%
First Round99.4% 99.8% 98.2%
Second Round68.5% 70.5% 62.2%
Sweet Sixteen29.4% 31.5% 23.1%
Elite Eight11.2% 12.0% 8.9%
Final Four3.9% 4.3% 2.6%
Championship Game1.3% 1.4% 0.8%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

Next Game: Georgia (Away) - 75.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 139   Austin Peay W 95-67 91%     1 - 0 +27.5 +12.8 +12.6
  Nov 11, 2018 189   Hartford W 77-59 95%     2 - 0 +13.5 +2.7 +11.6
  Nov 16, 2018 214   Long Beach St. W 79-51 96%     3 - 0 +21.9 -5.3 +25.7
  Nov 19, 2018 54   Arizona St. L 67-72 70%     3 - 1 +3.8 +0.1 +3.6
  Nov 21, 2018 53   St. Mary's W 61-57 69%     4 - 1 +13.3 +4.2 +9.8
  Nov 26, 2018 349   Alcorn St. W 88-65 99%     5 - 1 +4.0 +7.4 -3.6
  Nov 30, 2018 71   @ Dayton W 65-58 68%     6 - 1 +16.5 -4.2 +20.8
  Dec 04, 2018 317   McNeese St. W 90-77 98%     7 - 1 +0.7 +10.8 -9.8
  Dec 08, 2018 30   Clemson W 82-71 58%     8 - 1 +23.4 +21.9 +2.0
  Dec 15, 2018 31   Cincinnati W 70-59 68%     9 - 1 +20.6 +10.5 +11.3
  Dec 19, 2018 38   Wofford W 98-87 72%     10 - 1 +19.4 +24.9 -5.6
  Dec 22, 2018 142   Wright St. W 67-63 88%     11 - 1 +5.7 +5.9 +0.4
  Dec 29, 2018 75   BYU W 103-81 84%     12 - 1 +25.7 +11.8 +10.1
  Jan 08, 2019 72   @ South Carolina L 82-87 68%     12 - 2 0 - 1 +4.4 +0.3 +4.9
  Jan 12, 2019 39   Mississippi L 77-81 72%     12 - 3 0 - 2 +4.3 +6.6 -2.3
  Jan 15, 2019 28   Florida W 71-68 66%     13 - 3 1 - 2 +13.2 +8.0 +5.6
  Jan 19, 2019 117   @ Vanderbilt W 71-55 77%     14 - 3 2 - 2 +22.5 +5.8 +17.6
  Jan 22, 2019 5   @ Kentucky L 55-76 21%     14 - 4 2 - 3 +1.7 -6.6 +8.3
  Jan 26, 2019 16   Auburn W 92-84 56%     15 - 4 3 - 3 +20.9 +19.5 +1.0
  Jan 29, 2019 44   @ Alabama L 79-83 58%     15 - 5 3 - 4 +8.2 +6.8 +1.8
  Feb 02, 2019 39   @ Mississippi W 81-75 52%     16 - 5 4 - 4 +19.7 +12.2 +7.3
  Feb 06, 2019 23   LSU L 88-92 60%     16 - 6 4 - 5 +7.6 +7.7 +0.4
  Feb 09, 2019 5   Kentucky L 67-71 39%     16 - 7 4 - 6 +13.3 +10.3 +2.5
  Feb 12, 2019 44   Alabama W 81-62 76%     17 - 7 5 - 6 +25.8 +16.7 +10.1
  Feb 16, 2019 58   @ Arkansas W 77-67 64%     18 - 7 6 - 6 +20.6 +7.1 +13.2
  Feb 20, 2019 111   @ Georgia W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 23, 2019 72   South Carolina W 82-72 84%    
  Feb 26, 2019 88   Missouri W 75-64 86%    
  Mar 02, 2019 16   @ Auburn L 74-78 34%    
  Mar 05, 2019 7   @ Tennessee L 73-81 22%    
  Mar 09, 2019 86   Texas A&M W 79-68 86%    
Projected Record 21.9 - 9.1 9.9 - 8.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 1.8 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 6.7 1.9 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 6.7 9.3 0.5 16.6 6th
7th 0.0 2.3 16.4 4.7 0.1 23.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 9.1 12.1 0.5 0.0 22.2 8th
9th 0.2 3.6 11.0 2.7 0.0 17.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.2 2.3 0.1 6.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 1.3 7.5 24.8 39.2 22.6 4.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 4.5% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 4.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 22.6% 100.0% 6.1% 93.9% 5.3 0.0 0.6 3.9 8.3 7.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 39.2% 100.0% 4.8% 95.2% 6.1 0.1 1.8 7.9 15.4 10.9 2.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 24.8% 99.9% 3.6% 96.3% 6.8 0.0 0.2 2.0 7.4 9.6 4.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
8-10 7.5% 98.3% 2.6% 95.7% 8.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.6 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.3%
7-11 1.3% 79.5% 2.2% 77.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 79.1%
6-12 0.1% 16.7% 16.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16.7%
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.5% 4.8% 94.7% 6.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 7.7 19.5 30.8 24.1 10.5 3.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 99.5%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 2.4 4.0 54.9 38.5 2.2 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 3.7 3.1 34.4 53.4 8.4 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 100.0% 4.1 0.8 25.4 42.7 27.9 3.0 0.2