Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#148
Achievement Rating+1.9#143
Pace66.6#247
Improvement+4.8#22

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#150
First Shot+2.1#118
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#256
Layup/Dunks-1.9#245
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#206
Freethrows+1.4#85
Improvement+1.8#94

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#164
First Shot+0.0#171
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#144
Layups/Dunks+6.6#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#339
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#335
Freethrows+1.8#64
Improvement+3.0#36
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.6% 14.5% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 89.9% 96.5% 74.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 46.7% 56.0% 25.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round13.6% 14.5% 11.4%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Home) - 69.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 280   Oral Roberts W 84-50 84%     1 - 0 +24.5 -3.1 +24.9
  Nov 09, 2018 272   Robert Morris W 74-60 83%     2 - 0 +4.9 -6.4 +10.1
  Nov 11, 2018 335   Stetson W 83-70 93%     3 - 0 -2.1 -6.7 +3.2
  Nov 19, 2018 35   Nebraska L 62-85 17%     3 - 1 -11.5 -4.7 -6.7
  Nov 20, 2018 78   USC L 80-99 31%     3 - 2 -12.7 +6.5 -18.4
  Nov 24, 2018 71   @ Murray St. L 66-77 21%     3 - 3 -1.3 -5.6 +4.6
  Nov 28, 2018 239   @ Air Force L 69-88 62%     3 - 4 -20.8 -1.5 -20.0
  Dec 01, 2018 75   @ Oregon St. L 77-101 22%     3 - 5 -14.6 +6.7 -21.1
  Dec 05, 2018 122   Western Kentucky W 84-78 52%     4 - 5 +6.6 +13.5 -6.8
  Dec 15, 2018 194   @ North Dakota St. L 67-74 52%     4 - 6 -6.3 -10.4 +4.4
  Dec 18, 2018 259   @ Arkansas St. L 63-71 66%     4 - 7 -10.9 -13.5 +2.7
  Dec 22, 2018 330   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 93-72 92%     5 - 7 +6.9 +9.9 -4.0
  Jan 02, 2019 145   @ Southern Illinois L 70-75 38%     5 - 8 0 - 1 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1
  Jan 05, 2019 184   Valparaiso L 66-82 70%     5 - 9 0 - 2 -20.1 -6.2 -14.1
  Jan 08, 2019 199   @ Indiana St. W 72-57 53%     6 - 9 1 - 2 +15.5 -1.2 +16.3
  Jan 12, 2019 156   @ Bradley W 69-64 43%     7 - 9 2 - 2 +8.2 +7.6 +1.1
  Jan 16, 2019 201   Evansville L 64-70 73%     7 - 10 2 - 3 -11.2 -5.7 -5.8
  Jan 20, 2019 130   @ Drake L 63-74 34%     7 - 11 2 - 4 -5.5 -8.8 +3.5
  Jan 23, 2019 116   Loyola Chicago W 70-35 50%     8 - 11 3 - 4 +36.1 +24.3 +24.4
  Jan 26, 2019 156   Bradley W 55-37 64%     9 - 11 4 - 4 +15.7 -4.2 +24.0
  Jan 29, 2019 184   @ Valparaiso W 55-54 50%     10 - 11 5 - 4 +2.4 -8.4 +10.9
  Feb 02, 2019 180   @ Northern Iowa L 59-64 49%     10 - 12 5 - 5 -3.5 +1.5 -6.3
  Feb 06, 2019 145   Southern Illinois W 65-59 59%     11 - 12 6 - 5 +4.8 +5.8 +0.3
  Feb 10, 2019 165   Illinois St. W 66-65 66%     12 - 12 7 - 5 -2.0 +1.7 -3.5
  Feb 13, 2019 201   @ Evansville W 68-56 54%     13 - 12 8 - 5 +12.3 +8.9 +5.3
  Feb 17, 2019 116   @ Loyola Chicago W 65-61 30%     14 - 12 9 - 5 +10.7 +13.2 -1.5
  Feb 20, 2019 180   Northern Iowa W 70-65 70%    
  Feb 23, 2019 199   Indiana St. W 74-68 73%    
  Feb 27, 2019 165   @ Illinois St. L 69-70 44%    
  Mar 02, 2019 130   Drake W 73-72 55%    
Projected Record 16.4 - 13.6 11.4 - 6.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 6.7 26.1 13.8 46.7 1st
2nd 1.8 16.6 8.2 26.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 10.3 10.4 0.6 21.7 3rd
4th 1.1 2.7 3.8 4th
5th 0.9 0.1 1.0 5th
6th 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 2.6 15.1 33.8 34.8 13.8 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 13.8    11.3 2.5
12-6 74.9% 26.1    9.0 12.9 4.2
11-7 20.0% 6.7    0.3 1.8 3.3 1.3 0.1
10-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 46.7% 46.7 20.6 17.2 7.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 13.8% 18.5% 18.5% 13.6 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.2
12-6 34.8% 15.3% 15.3% 14.4 0.2 2.6 2.4 0.1 29.5
11-7 33.8% 12.3% 12.3% 14.8 0.0 1.1 2.8 0.2 29.6
10-8 15.1% 9.1% 9.1% 15.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 13.7
9-9 2.6% 7.2% 7.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.6% 13.6% 0.0% 14.5 0.1 1.2 5.3 6.6 0.5 86.4 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 100.0% 13.6 2.5 40.2 51.0 6.3 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.0%
Lose Out 1.4%