Montana St.
Big Sky
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#227
Achievement Rating-3.7#211
Pace74.6#59
Improvement+6.4#6

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#142
First Shot+1.8#134
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#216
Layup/Dunks-2.3#259
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#190
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#80
Freethrows+1.7#65
Improvement+3.5#35

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#308
First Shot-6.6#339
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#48
Layups/Dunks-2.2#271
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#170
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#347
Freethrows+1.4#83
Improvement+2.9#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 9.0% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 26.3% 59.9% 20.7%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 100.0% 97.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.1% 1.9% 2.1%
First Round5.1% 8.2% 4.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Away) - 14.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 49   Utah St. L 71-101 16%     0 - 1 -23.4 -5.5 -15.2
  Nov 09, 2018 45   @ Indiana L 35-80 7%     0 - 2 -32.7 -31.4 -0.5
  Nov 14, 2018 178   @ Colorado St. L 77-81 29%     0 - 3 -2.4 +1.3 -3.7
  Nov 17, 2018 172   @ UC Santa Barbara L 69-88 27%     0 - 4 -16.7 +3.6 -22.3
  Nov 21, 2018 58   @ Arkansas L 68-90 9%     0 - 5 -11.3 -5.4 -3.8
  Nov 24, 2018 171   @ Nebraska Omaha L 65-89 27%     0 - 6 -21.6 -10.8 -11.1
  Nov 27, 2018 273   North Dakota W 81-76 69%     1 - 6 -4.2 +2.1 -6.5
  Dec 09, 2018 167   @ Washington St. W 95-90 27%     2 - 6 +7.5 +7.4 -0.6
  Dec 18, 2018 297   @ Denver L 64-76 54%     2 - 7 -17.0 -13.8 -3.2
  Dec 29, 2018 279   @ Southern Utah W 92-62 50%     3 - 7 1 - 0 +26.1 +15.3 +9.7
  Dec 31, 2018 307   @ Northern Arizona L 68-74 57%     3 - 8 1 - 1 -11.7 -9.6 -2.1
  Jan 03, 2019 291   Portland St. W 98-88 72%     4 - 8 2 - 1 -0.1 +8.4 -9.4
  Jan 05, 2019 264   Sacramento St. W 84-70 68%     5 - 8 3 - 1 +5.3 +4.9 -0.2
  Jan 10, 2019 344   @ Idaho W 77-67 78%     6 - 8 4 - 1 -2.1 -0.6 -1.1
  Jan 14, 2019 183   Northern Colorado L 70-73 51%     6 - 9 4 - 2 -7.1 +0.5 -7.9
  Jan 19, 2019 238   @ Eastern Washington L 81-85 42%     6 - 10 4 - 3 -5.8 +4.7 -10.5
  Jan 24, 2019 166   Weber St. L 84-93 46%     6 - 11 4 - 4 -12.0 +2.2 -13.4
  Jan 26, 2019 313   Idaho St. W 104-84 77%     7 - 11 5 - 4 +8.3 +19.2 -11.5
  Feb 02, 2019 109   Montana L 78-83 30%     7 - 12 5 - 5 -3.5 +4.4 -7.8
  Feb 04, 2019 183   @ Northern Colorado W 69-66 30%     8 - 12 6 - 5 +4.4 -4.3 +8.6
  Feb 07, 2019 238   Eastern Washington W 74-66 63%     9 - 12 7 - 5 +0.6 -8.5 +8.6
  Feb 09, 2019 344   Idaho W 86-72 89%     10 - 12 8 - 5 -3.6 +4.8 -8.1
  Feb 14, 2019 313   @ Idaho St. W 84-76 59%     11 - 12 9 - 5 +1.8 +2.5 -0.9
  Feb 16, 2019 166   @ Weber St. L 82-94 27%     11 - 13 9 - 6 -9.5 +4.9 -13.5
  Feb 23, 2019 109   @ Montana L 72-83 14%    
  Mar 02, 2019 307   Northern Arizona W 84-77 76%    
  Mar 04, 2019 279   Southern Utah W 82-77 70%    
  Mar 07, 2019 264   @ Sacramento St. L 75-76 46%    
  Mar 09, 2019 291   @ Portland St. W 82-81 52%    
Projected Record 13.6 - 15.4 11.6 - 8.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 1.2 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 6.3 9.7 1.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 17.3 24.8 5.7 0.0 49.6 4th
5th 0.3 7.8 12.8 3.2 0.0 24.1 5th
6th 1.1 3.4 0.5 5.0 6th
7th 0.7 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.1 13.1 31.0 34.4 17.1 2.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 2.3% 13.9% 13.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.0
13-7 17.1% 9.6% 9.6% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.1 15.4
12-8 34.4% 6.2% 6.2% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.7 32.3
11-9 31.0% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.2 1.3 29.5
10-10 13.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4 12.7
9-11 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 1.3 4.7 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 15.1 12.2 69.0 18.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%
Lose Out 0.9%