Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#268
Achievement Rating-7.1#273
Pace68.7#188
Improvement+2.0#90

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#205
First Shot+0.1#177
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#254
Layup/Dunks-2.5#268
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#77
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
Freethrows+0.5#142
Improvement+1.4#109

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#307
First Shot-3.6#283
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#303
Layups/Dunks-2.3#273
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#227
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#210
Freethrows+0.1#174
Improvement+0.5#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.7% 37.1% 4.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Away) - 12.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2018 83   @ Connecticut L 70-80 9%     0 - 1 -1.2 +2.7 -4.2
  Nov 10, 2018 40   @ Syracuse L 70-84 4%     0 - 2 -0.3 -0.5 +1.5
  Nov 16, 2018 229   UMKC W 99-89 43%     1 - 2 +5.8 +15.4 -10.5
  Nov 17, 2018 224   Green Bay L 70-87 42%     1 - 3 -20.9 -7.2 -13.3
  Nov 25, 2018 48   Lipscomb L 55-87 12%     1 - 4 -25.4 -15.6 -8.4
  Nov 27, 2018 106   Northern Kentucky L 71-93 23%     1 - 5 -20.3 -5.4 -14.0
  Dec 10, 2018 202   @ Marshall L 64-76 27%     1 - 6 -11.7 -16.0 +5.3
  Dec 13, 2018 174   @ Samford L 72-77 22%     1 - 7 -2.8 -6.7 +4.3
  Dec 18, 2018 141   @ Wright St. L 67-78 16%     1 - 8 -6.5 -2.3 -4.3
  Dec 21, 2018 205   IUPUI W 74-70 48%     2 - 8 -1.4 -3.0 +1.5
  Dec 29, 2018 89   @ Missouri L 61-75 9%     2 - 9 -5.4 -4.4 -1.5
  Jan 03, 2019 71   @ Murray St. L 69-90 8%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -11.3 -1.3 -9.8
  Jan 05, 2019 137   @ Austin Peay L 67-81 15%     2 - 11 0 - 2 -9.1 -6.3 -2.7
  Jan 10, 2019 69   @ Belmont L 60-77 8%     2 - 12 0 - 3 -7.2 -15.1 +9.1
  Jan 12, 2019 312   @ Tennessee St. W 74-61 50%     3 - 12 1 - 3 +7.0 -3.8 +10.2
  Jan 17, 2019 315   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-69 73%     4 - 12 2 - 3 -8.3 +1.7 -9.6
  Jan 19, 2019 300   Tennessee Martin W 85-77 67%     5 - 12 3 - 3 -2.7 +7.3 -9.7
  Jan 24, 2019 328   Tennessee Tech W 67-61 78%     6 - 12 4 - 3 -8.1 -5.8 -2.0
  Jan 26, 2019 129   Jacksonville St. L 71-77 27%     6 - 13 4 - 4 -5.8 +4.3 -10.3
  Jan 31, 2019 332   @ SIU Edwardsville L 76-83 61%     6 - 14 4 - 5 -15.8 +0.0 -15.9
  Feb 02, 2019 296   @ Eastern Illinois W 84-78 46%     7 - 14 5 - 5 +1.1 +4.9 -4.0
  Feb 07, 2019 312   Tennessee St. L 80-81 70%     7 - 15 5 - 6 -12.6 -1.9 -10.6
  Feb 09, 2019 69   Belmont L 86-96 17%     7 - 16 5 - 7 -5.7 +12.8 -18.6
  Feb 14, 2019 277   Eastern Kentucky W 78-72 63%     8 - 16 6 - 7 -3.4 -2.7 -1.0
  Feb 16, 2019 137   Austin Peay L 70-73 30%     8 - 17 6 - 8 -3.7 -5.9 +2.3
  Feb 21, 2019 129   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-77 13%    
  Feb 23, 2019 328   @ Tennessee Tech W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 28, 2019 71   Murray St. L 70-80 18%    
  Mar 02, 2019 277   @ Eastern Kentucky L 81-83 41%    
Projected Record 9.3 - 19.7 7.3 - 10.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 2.5 14.3 7.1 0.7 24.6 5th
6th 2.8 27.0 15.3 0.8 0.0 45.9 6th
7th 9.9 12.4 0.4 22.8 7th
8th 5.5 0.3 5.9 8th
9th 0.8 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 19.0 42.2 30.1 7.9 0.7 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 0.7
9-9 7.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 7.9
8-10 30.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 30.0
7-11 42.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 42.2
6-12 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 13.6%