Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.0#312
Achievement Rating-3.2#208
Pace75.9#61
Improvement+2.2#47

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#317
First Shot-7.9#337
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#61
Layup/Dunks-4.3#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#329
Freethrows-0.3#193
Improvement+0.7#116

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#270
First Shot-4.0#291
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#123
Layups/Dunks-1.8#244
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#21
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#303
Freethrows-1.6#267
Improvement+1.5#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.8% 18.5% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 72.4% 89.8% 71.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.9% 92.1% 85.5%
Conference Champion 19.2% 28.4% 18.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 0.8%
First Four11.5% 14.2% 11.3%
First Round5.9% 10.2% 5.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Away) - 5.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 21   @ Villanova L 77-100 2%     0 - 1 -6.7 +4.9 -9.9
  Nov 09, 2018 208   @ St. Francis (PA) L 60-80 19%     0 - 2 -19.8 -15.0 -4.5
  Nov 12, 2018 107   @ DePaul L 63-91 7%     0 - 3 -20.4 -7.4 -12.5
  Nov 20, 2018 307   Navy W 75-51 60%     1 - 3 +12.4 +0.0 +13.0
  Nov 25, 2018 340   Mount St. Mary's W 78-68 76%     2 - 3 -6.3 -10.4 +2.9
  Nov 28, 2018 171   @ George Mason L 75-82 14%     2 - 4 -4.6 +0.1 -4.3
  Dec 03, 2018 4   @ Virginia L 45-83 1%     2 - 5 -16.3 -16.6 +0.2
  Dec 05, 2018 325   Binghamton W 74-68 68%     3 - 5 -7.9 -3.0 -4.7
  Dec 08, 2018 297   Towson W 74-69 45%     4 - 5 -2.8 -4.3 +1.4
  Dec 22, 2018 105   @ Old Dominion L 57-74 6%    
  Dec 29, 2018 326   @ Cal St. Northridge L 79-80 47%    
  Jan 05, 2019 347   Maryland Eastern Shore W 74-64 83%    
  Jan 07, 2019 351   Savannah St. W 95-84 85%    
  Jan 12, 2019 341   South Carolina St. W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 14, 2019 285   @ Howard L 79-84 32%    
  Jan 19, 2019 324   @ N.C. A&T L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 21, 2019 314   @ NC Central L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 26, 2019 308   Bethune-Cookman W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 28, 2019 335   Florida A&M W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 02, 2019 350   @ Coppin St. W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 09, 2019 341   @ South Carolina St. W 76-74 55%    
  Feb 11, 2019 351   @ Savannah St. W 92-87 68%    
  Feb 23, 2019 277   Norfolk St. W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 25, 2019 285   Howard W 82-81 53%    
  Mar 02, 2019 353   @ Delaware St. W 80-71 78%    
  Mar 04, 2019 347   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 71-67 65%    
  Mar 07, 2019 350   Coppin St. W 79-68 84%    
Projected Record 14.7 - 12.3 10.2 - 5.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 4.4 6.4 4.7 2.0 0.4 19.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 6.0 7.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.6 6.7 2.0 0.2 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.2 6.3 2.0 0.1 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.5 5.8 2.1 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.5 2.3 0.2 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.9 6.9 10.2 13.7 15.6 16.0 13.5 9.4 5.1 2.1 0.4 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-1 99.2% 2.0    1.9 0.1
14-2 91.6% 4.7    3.7 0.9 0.0
13-3 68.2% 6.4    3.5 2.4 0.4 0.0
12-4 32.5% 4.4    1.2 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
11-5 7.8% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 19.2% 19.2 10.9 5.8 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.4% 40.4% 40.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
15-1 2.1% 34.3% 34.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3
14-2 5.1% 28.3% 28.3% 15.9 0.1 1.4 3.7
13-3 9.4% 24.0% 24.0% 16.0 0.0 2.2 7.1
12-4 13.5% 19.7% 19.7% 16.0 0.0 2.6 10.8
11-5 16.0% 14.6% 14.6% 16.0 2.3 13.6
10-6 15.6% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 1.6 14.0
9-7 13.7% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.9 12.8
8-8 10.2% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.4 9.8
7-9 6.9% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.2 6.7
6-10 3.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 3.8
5-11 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-12 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-13 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 12.5 87.2 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 14.6 9.5 33.3 42.9 14.3