Mount St. Mary's
Northeast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.3#327
Achievement Rating-13.5#331
Pace67.8#206
Improvement+5.5#16

Offense
Total Offense-6.9#329
First Shot-5.9#322
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#246
Layup/Dunks-3.9#304
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#164
Freethrows-1.3#265
Improvement+4.2#25

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#292
First Shot-3.2#271
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#289
Layups/Dunks-0.8#215
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#245
Freethrows-0.6#222
Improvement+1.2#110
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 1.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 82.2% 60.3% 91.0%
First Four0.4% 1.0% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Away) - 28.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 32   @ North Carolina St. L 55-105 2%     0 - 1 -35.4 -14.5 -18.2
  Nov 09, 2018 87   @ Hofstra L 61-79 4%     0 - 2 -9.4 -15.1 +6.5
  Nov 14, 2018 202   @ Marshall L 75-98 14%     0 - 3 -22.7 -10.8 -8.5
  Nov 18, 2018 21   @ Maryland L 77-92 1%     0 - 4 +2.3 +8.9 -5.8
  Nov 21, 2018 323   N.C. A&T L 60-74 58%     0 - 5 -27.3 -14.6 -13.7
  Nov 25, 2018 334   @ Morgan St. L 68-78 43%     0 - 6 -19.6 -15.7 -2.7
  Dec 01, 2018 281   @ Loyola Maryland L 65-75 24%     0 - 7 -14.0 -14.1 +0.7
  Dec 05, 2018 42   @ St. John's L 71-85 2%     0 - 8 -0.7 +4.3 -4.9
  Dec 08, 2018 158   Lehigh L 78-85 20%     0 - 9 -9.5 -8.3 -0.4
  Dec 18, 2018 208   @ American W 56-55 15%     1 - 9 +1.0 -4.6 +5.8
  Dec 30, 2018 43   @ Minnesota L 53-71 2%     1 - 10 -5.5 -12.5 +6.4
  Jan 03, 2019 240   @ St. Francis (PA) L 69-80 19%     1 - 11 0 - 1 -12.9 -10.7 -1.7
  Jan 05, 2019 272   @ Robert Morris L 59-62 23%     1 - 12 0 - 2 -6.5 -6.5 -0.4
  Jan 10, 2019 326   Bryant L 59-66 60%     1 - 13 0 - 3 -20.8 -19.7 -1.6
  Jan 12, 2019 305   Central Connecticut St. L 68-77 49%     1 - 14 0 - 4 -20.1 -9.1 -11.3
  Jan 19, 2019 275   @ Wagner W 70-56 24%     2 - 14 1 - 4 +10.2 +5.9 +5.8
  Jan 21, 2019 250   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 69-87 20%     2 - 15 1 - 5 -20.5 -2.3 -19.7
  Jan 24, 2019 270   LIU Brooklyn W 74-72 41%     3 - 15 2 - 5 -7.0 +0.1 -7.0
  Jan 26, 2019 262   St. Francis Brooklyn L 67-74 40%     3 - 16 2 - 6 -15.6 -3.8 -12.3
  Jan 31, 2019 255   Sacred Heart L 79-87 38%     3 - 17 2 - 7 -16.3 -3.7 -12.1
  Feb 02, 2019 240   St. Francis (PA) L 63-72 35%     3 - 18 2 - 8 -16.4 -14.6 -2.2
  Feb 07, 2019 270   @ LIU Brooklyn L 62-77 23%     3 - 19 2 - 9 -18.5 -13.5 -4.9
  Feb 09, 2019 255   @ Sacred Heart W 76-73 21%     4 - 19 3 - 9 +0.3 -2.5 +2.6
  Feb 14, 2019 272   Robert Morris W 76-62 41%     5 - 19 4 - 9 +4.9 +3.0 +2.1
  Feb 16, 2019 275   Wagner L 56-58 42%     5 - 20 4 - 10 -11.3 -10.0 -1.6
  Feb 21, 2019 305   @ Central Connecticut St. L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 23, 2019 326   @ Bryant L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 28, 2019 250   Fairleigh Dickinson L 71-74 39%    
  Mar 02, 2019 262   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 64-72 22%    
Projected Record 6.3 - 22.7 5.3 - 12.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.2 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 0.7 2.0 7th
8th 6.1 6.7 0.3 13.2 8th
9th 6.3 16.0 1.3 23.5 9th
10th 22.7 32.8 5.5 0.0 61.0 10th
Total 22.7 39.1 27.6 9.4 1.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 1.2% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 1.2
7-11 9.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 9.1
6-12 27.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 27.5
5-13 39.1% 39.1
4-14 22.7% 22.7
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 22.7%