Mount St. Mary's
Northeast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.2#340
Achievement Rating-21.3#348
Pace73.6#98
Improvement+1.5#70

Offense
Total Offense-8.6#340
First Shot-7.8#335
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#212
Layup/Dunks-0.1#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#314
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#253
Freethrows-2.2#287
Improvement+0.1#161

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#300
First Shot-3.1#273
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#271
Layups/Dunks+0.3#171
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#243
Freethrows-1.8#273
Improvement+1.4#77
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.8% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.7% 15.9% 9.1%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.3% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 44.0% 33.4% 45.0%
First Four0.8% 1.7% 0.7%
First Round0.4% 1.3% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Away) - 8.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 20   @ North Carolina St. L 55-105 1%     0 - 1 -33.8 -15.7 -15.4
  Nov 09, 2018 116   @ Hofstra L 61-79 4%     0 - 2 -11.0 -15.2 +5.0
  Nov 14, 2018 126   @ Marshall L 75-98 5%     0 - 3 -16.8 -5.6 -7.9
  Nov 18, 2018 30   @ Maryland L 77-92 1%     0 - 4 +0.4 +8.1 -6.9
  Nov 21, 2018 318   N.C. A&T L 60-74 48%     0 - 5 -26.7 -16.8 -10.9
  Nov 25, 2018 314   @ Morgan St. L 68-78 25%     0 - 6 -16.0 -14.7 -0.1
  Dec 01, 2018 299   @ Loyola Maryland L 65-75 21%     0 - 7 -14.6 -15.7 +1.6
  Dec 05, 2018 45   @ St. John's L 71-85 2%     0 - 8 -1.1 +1.5 -2.6
  Dec 08, 2018 150   Lehigh L 78-85 15%     0 - 9 -9.2 -6.5 -1.9
  Dec 18, 2018 195   @ American L 63-77 9%    
  Dec 30, 2018 60   @ Minnesota L 61-85 1%    
  Jan 03, 2019 214   @ St. Francis (PA) L 69-82 11%    
  Jan 05, 2019 286   @ Robert Morris L 64-73 20%    
  Jan 10, 2019 341   Bryant W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 12, 2019 256   Central Connecticut St. L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 19, 2019 257   @ Wagner L 64-75 17%    
  Jan 21, 2019 271   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 71-81 18%    
  Jan 24, 2019 238   LIU Brooklyn L 74-80 31%    
  Jan 26, 2019 281   St. Francis Brooklyn L 70-73 37%    
  Jan 31, 2019 295   Sacred Heart L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 02, 2019 214   St. Francis (PA) L 72-79 25%    
  Feb 07, 2019 238   @ LIU Brooklyn L 71-83 15%    
  Feb 09, 2019 295   @ Sacred Heart L 72-81 22%    
  Feb 14, 2019 286   Robert Morris L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 16, 2019 257   Wagner L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 21, 2019 256   @ Central Connecticut St. L 67-78 17%    
  Feb 23, 2019 341   @ Bryant L 75-78 39%    
  Feb 28, 2019 271   Fairleigh Dickinson L 74-78 37%    
  Mar 02, 2019 281   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 67-76 19%    
Projected Record 5.3 - 23.7 5.2 - 12.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 3.1 1.3 0.1 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.7 2.3 0.3 9.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.8 7.3 3.7 0.5 16.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.8 7.8 8.6 4.4 0.7 0.0 26.3 9th
10th 1.0 4.0 7.9 9.1 6.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 31.9 10th
Total 1.0 4.1 8.8 12.9 15.8 15.2 14.6 10.7 7.2 4.6 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0
13-5 61.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1
12-6 21.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.6% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.1 0.5
11-7 1.4% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.1 1.4
10-8 2.8% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.1 2.6
9-9 4.6% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.2 4.5
8-10 7.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 7.0
7-11 10.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.6
6-12 14.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.6
5-13 15.2% 15.2
4-14 15.8% 15.8
3-15 12.9% 12.9
2-16 8.8% 8.8
1-17 4.1% 4.1
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%