Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#102
Achievement Rating+9.3#72
Pace67.3#250
Improvement-1.3#273

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#156
First Shot-3.5#270
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#16
Layup/Dunks+3.9#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#322
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#254
Freethrows-1.5#253
Improvement-0.9#248

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#59
First Shot+5.9#28
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#261
Layups/Dunks-6.3#336
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#65
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.3#1
Freethrows-0.9#230
Improvement-0.5#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.6% 40.9% 32.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.7% 0.4%
Average Seed 13.0 12.6 13.3
.500 or above 99.6% 100.0% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.7% 99.1%
Conference Champion 47.7% 54.2% 43.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
First Round35.3% 40.4% 32.1%
Second Round7.2% 9.5% 5.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.9% 1.6%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 38.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 144   Wright St. W 73-54 73%     1 - 0 +17.5 +3.3 +15.6
  Nov 24, 2018 194   Missouri St. W 77-66 83%     2 - 0 +6.0 -2.1 +7.7
  Nov 26, 2018 62   @ Alabama L 72-78 29%     2 - 1 +4.7 -0.8 +6.0
  Dec 01, 2018 271   Prairie View W 83-67 90%     3 - 1 +6.9 +6.6 +0.4
  Dec 08, 2018 254   @ Middle Tennessee W 64-42 76%     4 - 1 +19.7 -3.4 +24.3
  Dec 12, 2018 103   @ Southern Illinois L 63-66 39%    
  Dec 15, 2018 337   Jackson St. W 77-56 97%    
  Dec 18, 2018 200   Evansville W 76-66 83%    
  Dec 22, 2018 9   @ Auburn L 64-80 7%    
  Jan 03, 2019 286   Morehead St. W 78-63 92%    
  Jan 05, 2019 275   Eastern Kentucky W 86-72 91%    
  Jan 10, 2019 295   @ Tennessee Martin W 77-67 81%    
  Jan 12, 2019 273   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 72-64 77%    
  Jan 17, 2019 318   @ Eastern Illinois W 73-61 86%    
  Jan 19, 2019 327   @ SIU Edwardsville W 77-64 88%    
  Jan 24, 2019 90   Belmont W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 26, 2019 280   Tennessee St. W 76-61 90%    
  Jan 31, 2019 145   @ Jacksonville St. W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 02, 2019 334   @ Tennessee Tech W 76-62 90%    
  Feb 07, 2019 318   Eastern Illinois W 76-58 94%    
  Feb 09, 2019 327   SIU Edwardsville W 80-61 95%    
  Feb 14, 2019 193   @ Austin Peay W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 16, 2019 275   @ Eastern Kentucky W 83-75 77%    
  Feb 21, 2019 295   Tennessee Martin W 80-64 91%    
  Feb 23, 2019 273   Southeast Missouri St. W 75-61 89%    
  Feb 28, 2019 286   @ Morehead St. W 75-66 78%    
  Mar 02, 2019 193   Austin Peay W 75-65 81%    
Projected Record 21.0 - 6.0 14.7 - 3.3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.0 8.7 15.1 14.2 6.2 47.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.5 9.2 9.5 4.4 0.5 29.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 4.8 3.2 0.8 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.8 6.8 10.8 15.5 19.1 19.4 14.7 6.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 6.2    6.2
17-1 96.8% 14.2    12.1 2.1
16-2 77.5% 15.1    9.7 5.0 0.3 0.0
15-3 45.7% 8.7    4.0 3.9 0.8 0.0
14-4 19.3% 3.0    0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.7% 47.7 33.0 12.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 6.2% 63.3% 59.4% 4.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.3 9.8%
17-1 14.7% 53.8% 52.3% 1.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.8 3.2%
16-2 19.4% 44.6% 44.2% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.1 1.6 0.1 10.8 0.7%
15-3 19.1% 35.8% 35.8% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.8 2.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 12.2 0.1%
14-4 15.5% 29.0% 29.0% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.3 0.8 0.0 11.0 0.0%
13-5 10.8% 20.8% 20.8% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 8.6
12-6 6.8% 14.9% 14.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 5.8
11-7 3.8% 9.8% 9.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.5
10-8 2.0% 6.3% 6.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9
9-9 0.9% 4.0% 4.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.9
8-10 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.4
7-11 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 35.6% 35.0% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.6 8.9 11.6 8.4 3.2 0.4 64.4 0.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 9.9 1.6 0.8 5.3 15.2 9.8 22.5 35.2 9.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 31.2% 10.8 1.3 2.6 1.3 3.9 11.7 9.1 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 26.7% 10.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 11.1 6.7