Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#71
Achievement Rating+9.5#62
Pace69.9#154
Improvement-3.9#319

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#49
First Shot+2.1#117
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#24
Layup/Dunks+6.6#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#312
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#199
Freethrows-1.2#257
Improvement+0.9#144

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#122
First Shot+2.9#87
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#261
Layups/Dunks-0.6#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#148
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#69
Freethrows+0.4#153
Improvement-4.7#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.8% 38.2% 29.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.2 12.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 68.3% 70.8% 16.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round37.6% 38.0% 29.9%
Second Round8.2% 8.4% 4.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.1% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 95.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 141   Wright St. W 73-54 77%     1 - 0 +18.0 +4.6 +14.7
  Nov 24, 2018 148   Missouri St. W 77-66 79%     2 - 0 +9.5 +0.7 +8.5
  Nov 26, 2018 44   @ Alabama L 72-78 30%     2 - 1 +6.3 -0.8 +7.5
  Dec 01, 2018 265   Prairie View W 83-67 92%     3 - 1 +7.3 +6.5 +0.9
  Dec 08, 2018 244   @ Middle Tennessee W 64-42 80%     4 - 1 +19.9 -5.1 +26.3
  Dec 12, 2018 145   @ Southern Illinois W 80-52 60%     5 - 1 +32.4 +13.3 +20.4
  Dec 15, 2018 333   Jackson St. W 74-57 97%     6 - 1 +2.2 -4.0 +5.6
  Dec 18, 2018 201   Evansville W 66-64 87%     7 - 1 -3.2 -2.1 -1.0
  Dec 22, 2018 14   @ Auburn L 88-93 14%     7 - 2 +13.4 +19.1 -5.5
  Jan 03, 2019 268   Morehead St. W 90-69 92%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +12.2 +9.7 +2.2
  Jan 05, 2019 277   Eastern Kentucky W 97-85 93%     9 - 2 2 - 0 +2.6 +4.5 -4.0
  Jan 10, 2019 300   @ Tennessee Martin W 98-77 87%     10 - 2 3 - 0 +15.9 +17.6 -2.3
  Jan 12, 2019 315   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 85-67 89%     11 - 2 4 - 0 +11.2 +17.4 -4.4
  Jan 17, 2019 296   @ Eastern Illinois W 83-61 86%     12 - 2 5 - 0 +17.1 +4.4 +12.2
  Jan 19, 2019 332   @ SIU Edwardsville W 82-72 92%     13 - 2 6 - 0 +1.2 +1.3 -0.5
  Jan 24, 2019 69   Belmont L 66-79 60%     13 - 3 6 - 1 -8.7 -9.1 +0.7
  Jan 26, 2019 312   Tennessee St. W 100-62 95%     14 - 3 7 - 1 +26.4 +24.7 +2.5
  Jan 31, 2019 129   @ Jacksonville St. L 68-88 55%     14 - 4 7 - 2 -14.2 -1.2 -12.6
  Feb 02, 2019 328   @ Tennessee Tech W 67-63 92%     15 - 4 8 - 2 -4.5 -7.1 +2.5
  Feb 07, 2019 296   Eastern Illinois W 86-75 94%     16 - 4 9 - 2 +0.5 +2.4 -2.4
  Feb 09, 2019 332   SIU Edwardsville W 86-55 96%     17 - 4 10 - 2 +16.7 +5.9 +10.7
  Feb 14, 2019 137   @ Austin Peay W 73-71 58%     18 - 4 11 - 2 +6.9 +10.0 -2.9
  Feb 16, 2019 277   @ Eastern Kentucky W 102-70 84%     19 - 4 12 - 2 +28.2 +17.4 +7.1
  Feb 21, 2019 300   Tennessee Martin W 85-67 95%    
  Feb 23, 2019 315   Southeast Missouri St. W 83-64 97%    
  Feb 28, 2019 268   @ Morehead St. W 80-70 82%    
  Mar 02, 2019 137   Austin Peay W 81-73 77%    
Projected Record 22.5 - 4.5 15.5 - 2.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 9.0 59.3 68.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 24.5 26.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 3.4 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.5 6.8 33.5 59.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 59.3    15.6 43.7
15-3 26.8% 9.0    0.4 3.2 4.1 1.2
14-4 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 68.3% 68.3 16.0 46.9 4.2 1.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 59.3% 42.2% 41.7% 0.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 6.2 13.4 4.6 0.2 0.0 34.3 0.9%
15-3 33.5% 32.8% 32.8% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.4 4.0 5.7 0.9 0.0 22.5 0.0%
14-4 6.8% 25.4% 25.4% 13.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 5.0
13-5 0.5% 20.4% 20.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 37.8% 37.5% 0.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 6.6 17.7 11.3 1.6 0.0 62.2 0.5%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 24.7% 100.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 2.2 25.0 53.9 18.0 0.7 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 19.3% 1.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 15.3% 0.4% 12.6 0.2 0.2 0.0