New Mexico St.
Western Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#59
Achievement Rating+12.4#34
Pace65.4#278
Improvement-0.1#191

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#51
First Shot+1.3#144
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#9
Layup/Dunks+3.6#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#68
Freethrows-0.2#190
Improvement+0.1#178

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#90
First Shot+2.2#103
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#97
Layups/Dunks+2.7#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#142
Freethrows+0.1#181
Improvement-0.2#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.2% 74.8% 55.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.9% 52.9% 22.4%
Average Seed 11.2 10.1 11.4
.500 or above 90.0% 98.3% 88.5%
.500 or above in Conference 49.4% 80.5% 43.7%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.7% 9.5% 7.4%
First Round53.8% 69.4% 50.9%
Second Round15.2% 23.9% 13.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.2% 4.5% 3.0%
Elite Eight0.6% 1.1% 0.5%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 15.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 196   North Dakota St. W 73-56 88%     1 - 0 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Nov 09, 2018 252   UTEP W 91-66 92%     2 - 0 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Nov 14, 2018 53   St. Mary's L 58-73 56%     2 - 1 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Nov 17, 2018 152   @ New Mexico W 98-94 66%     3 - 1 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Nov 28, 2018 252   @ UTEP W 62-58 84%     4 - 1 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Dec 01, 2018 166   Washington St. W 69-63 84%     5 - 1 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Dec 04, 2018 152   New Mexico W 100-65 82%     6 - 1 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Dec 08, 2018 11   @ Kansas L 60-63 14%     6 - 2 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Dec 17, 2018 178   Northern Colorado W 74-62 85%     7 - 2 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Dec 19, 2018 272   Cal St. Northridge W 92-57 93%     8 - 2 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Dec 22, 2018 129   Drake L 63-66 68%     8 - 3 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Dec 23, 2018 166   Washington St. W 75-72 78%     9 - 3 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Dec 30, 2018 180   @ Colorado St. W 88-68 73%     10 - 3 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Jan 03, 2019 212   @ California Baptist L 76-82 79%     10 - 4 0 - 1 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Jan 10, 2019 104   Grand Canyon W 77-75 71%     11 - 4 1 - 1 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Jan 12, 2019 191   Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-62 88%     12 - 4 2 - 1 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Jan 17, 2019 200   @ Seattle W 87-60 76%     13 - 4 3 - 1 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Jan 19, 2019 119   @ Utah Valley W 83-78 56%     14 - 4 4 - 1 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Jan 26, 2019 182   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 63-61 73%     15 - 4 5 - 1 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Jan 31, 2019 234   UMKC W 70-54 91%     16 - 4 6 - 1 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Feb 02, 2019 351   Chicago St. W 83-39 99%     17 - 4 7 - 1 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Feb 07, 2019 191   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-70 75%     18 - 4 8 - 1 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Feb 09, 2019 104   @ Grand Canyon W 67-64 52%     19 - 4 9 - 1 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Feb 14, 2019 119   Utah Valley W 84-77 75%     20 - 4 10 - 1 -5.7 -7.7 +0.7
  Feb 16, 2019 200   Seattle W 75-62 89%    
  Feb 23, 2019 182   UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-62 87%    
  Feb 28, 2019 234   @ UMKC W 74-64 81%    
  Mar 02, 2019 351   @ Chicago St. W 85-60 99%    
  Mar 09, 2019 212   California Baptist W 81-67 91%    
Projected Record 24.5 - 4.5 14.5 - 1.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.1 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.8 1.4 0.0 7.3 3rd
4th 0.4 6.5 6.4 0.4 13.7 4th
5th 0.3 5.5 13.3 3.2 0.0 22.3 5th
6th 0.3 6.2 19.4 9.5 0.5 35.7 6th
7th 2.6 9.4 5.7 0.4 0.0 18.1 7th
8th 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 9th
Total 3.4 16.1 31.1 30.7 15.3 3.2 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 57.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 7.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.2% 100.0% 56.1% 43.9% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-6 3.2% 95.9% 50.3% 45.6% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 91.8%
9-7 15.3% 90.0% 48.7% 41.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.9 4.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 1.5 80.5%
8-8 30.7% 66.0% 45.3% 20.7% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.7 9.1 7.3 0.6 0.0 10.4 37.8%
7-9 31.1% 44.3% 40.7% 3.6% 12.1 0.0 0.1 1.9 8.2 3.4 0.1 17.3 6.1%
6-10 16.1% 37.8% 37.7% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 1.7 3.6 0.8 0.0 10.0 0.1%
5-11 3.4% 30.9% 30.9% 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 2.3
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 58.2% 42.9% 15.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 4.1 8.0 14.7 18.0 8.0 1.4 0.1 41.8 26.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 13.9% 100.0% 11.2 0.1 0.4 2.4 14.1 47.5 32.9 2.4 0.0