New Mexico St.
Western Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#63
Achievement Rating+10.6#63
Pace69.0#203
Improvement+2.2#43

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#115
First Shot+1.0#156
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#94
Layup/Dunks-0.1#180
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#117
Freethrows+0.7#133
Improvement-0.6#221

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#40
First Shot+4.3#50
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#94
Layups/Dunks+4.8#33
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#327
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#205
Freethrows+3.8#19
Improvement+2.8#23
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.4% 51.5% 41.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.1% 6.1% 1.5%
Average Seed 12.1 12.0 12.9
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.4% 98.7%
Conference Champion 65.1% 67.1% 57.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.1% 2.4% 0.8%
First Round48.4% 50.3% 41.2%
Second Round14.1% 15.3% 9.8%
Sweet Sixteen4.5% 4.8% 3.2%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 79.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 204   North Dakota St. W 73-56 89%     1 - 0 +11.4 -1.3 +13.5
  Nov 09, 2018 214   UTEP W 91-66 90%     2 - 0 +18.9 +13.1 +4.6
  Nov 14, 2018 52   St. Mary's L 58-73 55%     2 - 1 -8.5 -7.7 -2.6
  Nov 17, 2018 146   @ New Mexico W 98-94 63%     3 - 1 +8.2 +16.5 -8.7
  Nov 28, 2018 214   @ UTEP W 62-58 77%     4 - 1 +3.9 -4.9 +9.1
  Dec 01, 2018 177   Washington St. W 69-63 86%     5 - 1 +1.8 -5.1 +7.2
  Dec 04, 2018 146   New Mexico W 100-65 82%     6 - 1 +33.2 +8.0 +19.9
  Dec 08, 2018 4   @ Kansas L 60-63 10%     6 - 2 +18.7 +2.9 +15.5
  Dec 17, 2018 137   Northern Colorado W 79-70 79%    
  Dec 19, 2018 324   Cal St. Northridge W 86-65 98%    
  Dec 22, 2018 157   Drake W 77-70 75%    
  Dec 30, 2018 208   @ Colorado St. W 76-69 76%    
  Jan 03, 2019 236   @ California Baptist W 78-69 80%    
  Jan 10, 2019 117   Grand Canyon W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 12, 2019 210   Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-58 89%    
  Jan 17, 2019 169   @ Seattle W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 19, 2019 140   @ Utah Valley W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 26, 2019 222   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-66 77%    
  Jan 31, 2019 268   UMKC W 78-61 93%    
  Feb 02, 2019 349   Chicago St. W 87-60 99%    
  Feb 07, 2019 210   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-61 75%    
  Feb 09, 2019 117   @ Grand Canyon W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 14, 2019 140   Utah Valley W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 16, 2019 169   Seattle W 76-65 84%    
  Feb 23, 2019 222   UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-63 90%    
  Feb 28, 2019 268   @ UMKC W 75-64 83%    
  Mar 02, 2019 349   @ Chicago St. W 84-63 97%    
  Mar 09, 2019 236   California Baptist W 81-66 91%    
Projected Record 22.2 - 5.8 12.9 - 3.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 6.9 15.5 19.9 15.4 6.1 65.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 5.7 8.0 4.9 1.0 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.3 1.0 0.1 8.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 3.0 5.8 10.5 15.9 20.4 20.8 15.4 6.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 6.1    6.1
15-1 100.0% 15.4    15.1 0.3
14-2 95.3% 19.9    17.1 2.8 0.0
13-3 75.9% 15.5    10.0 5.1 0.4 0.0
12-4 43.1% 6.9    2.6 3.2 1.0 0.1
11-5 12.7% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 65.1% 65.1 51.1 11.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 6.1% 78.6% 68.4% 10.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 1.3 32.4%
15-1 15.4% 67.8% 61.6% 6.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.7 4.1 0.9 0.1 4.9 16.4%
14-2 20.8% 58.3% 54.6% 3.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.8 5.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 8.7 8.0%
13-3 20.4% 47.9% 46.5% 1.4% 12.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.0 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.6 2.6%
12-4 15.9% 40.2% 39.9% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.5 0.5%
11-5 10.5% 32.9% 32.8% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.1 0.1%
10-6 5.8% 25.4% 25.4% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.4 0.0%
9-7 3.0% 20.6% 20.6% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.4
8-8 1.2% 16.3% 16.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
7-9 0.5% 9.8% 9.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
6-10 0.2% 13.0% 13.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.1% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 49.4% 46.7% 2.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 2.4 9.5 17.1 12.2 5.3 1.2 0.1 50.6 5.1%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 9.8 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.3 3.3 5.6 11.1 8.0 19.8 36.5 12.1 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 39.7% 10.3 0.8 1.5 4.2 3.2 7.7 13.3 8.4 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 44.4% 10.7 0.2 0.2 3.2 3.5 8.3 17.8 9.7 1.4