North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.3#329
Achievement Rating-15.9#334
Pace70.0#174
Improvement-1.3#273

Offense
Total Offense-8.0#334
First Shot-6.4#322
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#267
Layup/Dunks-3.9#294
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#135
Freethrows-0.6#208
Improvement-1.1#267

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#272
First Shot-5.5#323
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#40
Layups/Dunks-3.4#295
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#306
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#230
Freethrows+2.0#81
Improvement-0.2#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 0.1% 0.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 10.5% 18.8% 10.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 25.6% 16.4% 25.9%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Away) - 3.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 189   @ Samford L 74-91 12%     0 - 1 -15.7 -5.8 -8.2
  Nov 13, 2018 76   @ Saint Louis L 58-69 4%     0 - 2 -1.4 -5.5 +4.2
  Nov 17, 2018 122   @ Pittsburgh L 66-71 6%     0 - 3 +1.6 -2.9 +4.7
  Nov 24, 2018 206   @ Troy L 58-77 14%     0 - 4 -18.7 -14.6 -4.6
  Nov 28, 2018 75   @ Toledo L 59-80 4%     0 - 5 -11.4 -8.5 -3.5
  Dec 01, 2018 145   Jacksonville St. L 65-76 18%     0 - 6 -12.6 -11.6 -0.4
  Dec 04, 2018 216   @ UAB L 67-73 15%     0 - 7 -6.2 -0.7 -5.9
  Dec 15, 2018 89   @ UNC Greensboro L 59-79 3%    
  Dec 18, 2018 145   @ Jacksonville St. L 62-78 7%    
  Dec 21, 2018 321   @ VMI L 68-72 36%    
  Dec 28, 2018 2   @ Gonzaga L 61-94 0.1%   
  Dec 30, 2018 317   @ Eastern Illinois L 66-71 33%    
  Jan 05, 2019 175   @ North Florida L 71-84 11%    
  Jan 08, 2019 239   Florida Gulf Coast L 71-74 37%    
  Jan 12, 2019 200   NJIT L 64-70 30%    
  Jan 16, 2019 303   @ Jacksonville L 67-73 29%    
  Jan 19, 2019 338   Stetson W 74-70 66%    
  Jan 21, 2019 108   @ Liberty L 57-76 4%    
  Jan 24, 2019 343   Kennesaw St. W 69-63 70%    
  Jan 27, 2019 200   @ NJIT L 61-73 14%    
  Feb 02, 2019 71   @ Lipscomb L 66-87 3%    
  Feb 06, 2019 239   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 68-77 20%    
  Feb 09, 2019 175   North Florida L 74-81 26%    
  Feb 16, 2019 108   Liberty L 60-73 13%    
  Feb 20, 2019 343   @ Kennesaw St. L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 23, 2019 338   @ Stetson L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 26, 2019 303   Jacksonville L 70-71 49%    
  Mar 01, 2019 71   Lipscomb L 69-84 9%    
Projected Record 5.5 - 22.5 4.7 - 11.3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.6 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.5 8.1 3.9 0.5 0.0 18.9 6th
7th 0.0 2.3 9.2 10.1 3.6 0.4 0.0 25.6 7th
8th 0.2 3.4 9.1 7.4 1.8 0.1 22.1 8th
9th 1.0 4.0 6.2 3.5 0.7 0.0 15.4 9th
Total 1.0 4.2 9.5 14.9 18.2 17.7 14.3 9.7 5.7 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 88.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 72.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 17.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.1% 8.1% 8.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.4% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-6 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2
9-7 3.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.9
8-8 5.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.6
7-9 9.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.6
6-10 14.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.2
5-11 17.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.7
4-12 18.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.2
3-13 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.9
2-14 9.5% 9.5
1-15 4.2% 4.2
0-16 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%