North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.3#322
Achievement Rating-9.6#302
Pace70.0#149
Improvement-0.7#217

Offense
Total Offense-7.7#335
First Shot-6.1#323
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#279
Layup/Dunks-0.8#201
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#332
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#234
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement+0.8#147

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#242
First Shot-2.7#255
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#180
Layups/Dunks-2.0#260
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#120
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#118
Freethrows-3.0#335
Improvement-1.5#258
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 19.2% 55.0% 14.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Home) - 12.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 176   @ Samford L 74-91 13%     0 - 1 -15.0 -6.4 -6.9
  Nov 13, 2018 123   @ Saint Louis L 58-69 7%     0 - 2 -5.0 -8.5 +3.4
  Nov 17, 2018 91   @ Pittsburgh L 66-71 5%     0 - 3 +3.1 -3.3 +6.6
  Nov 24, 2018 237   @ Troy L 58-77 21%     0 - 4 -20.8 -17.4 -3.9
  Nov 28, 2018 67   @ Toledo L 59-80 4%     0 - 5 -11.2 -7.3 -4.5
  Dec 01, 2018 131   Jacksonville St. L 65-76 17%     0 - 6 -11.0 -9.3 -1.0
  Dec 04, 2018 163   @ UAB L 67-73 12%     0 - 7 -3.5 -0.3 -3.6
  Dec 15, 2018 115   @ UNC Greensboro L 48-53 7%     0 - 8 +1.6 -14.0 +15.0
  Dec 18, 2018 131   @ Jacksonville St. L 50-64 8%     0 - 9 -8.5 -13.8 +4.2
  Dec 21, 2018 320   @ VMI L 68-89 39%     0 - 10 -28.4 -17.1 -9.0
  Dec 28, 2018 2   @ Gonzaga L 51-96 0.3%    0 - 11 -18.3 -15.9 +0.9
  Dec 30, 2018 290   @ Eastern Illinois L 70-81 29%     0 - 12 -15.5 -5.5 -10.1
  Jan 05, 2019 219   @ North Florida L 67-96 18%     0 - 13 0 - 1 -29.8 -10.1 -18.5
  Jan 08, 2019 221   Florida Gulf Coast W 61-56 35%     1 - 13 1 - 1 -1.2 -10.5 +9.6
  Jan 12, 2019 194   NJIT W 61-55 29%     2 - 13 2 - 1 +1.3 -13.9 +14.9
  Jan 16, 2019 252   @ Jacksonville W 91-88 23%     3 - 13 3 - 1 +0.4 +11.8 -11.6
  Jan 19, 2019 338   Stetson W 63-62 71%     4 - 13 4 - 1 -15.0 -18.1 +3.1
  Jan 21, 2019 96   @ Liberty L 47-72 6%     4 - 14 4 - 2 -17.2 -19.7 +1.1
  Jan 24, 2019 343   Kennesaw St. W 76-71 73%     5 - 14 5 - 2 -11.8 -5.5 -6.4
  Jan 27, 2019 194   @ NJIT L 70-76 15%     5 - 15 5 - 3 -5.3 -3.2 -1.7
  Feb 02, 2019 48   @ Lipscomb L 80-102 3%     5 - 16 5 - 4 -9.9 +7.7 -15.7
  Feb 06, 2019 221   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 64-71 19%     5 - 17 5 - 5 -7.8 -7.4 -0.5
  Feb 09, 2019 219   North Florida L 73-82 35%     5 - 18 5 - 6 -15.2 -3.9 -11.3
  Feb 16, 2019 96   Liberty L 58-71 12%    
  Feb 20, 2019 343   @ Kennesaw St. W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 23, 2019 338   @ Stetson W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 26, 2019 252   Jacksonville L 71-73 43%    
  Mar 01, 2019 48   Lipscomb L 66-83 6%    
Projected Record 6.6 - 21.4 6.6 - 9.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.9 1.9 0.2 6.1 3rd
4th 3.0 8.5 0.6 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 1.2 18.7 3.9 0.0 23.8 5th
6th 0.5 15.8 12.9 0.1 29.2 6th
7th 11.8 16.1 0.8 28.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 12.4 33.0 35.5 16.4 2.6 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.2% 0.2
9-7 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
8-8 16.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.4
7-9 35.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 35.4
6-10 33.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 33.0
5-11 12.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.3
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 11.9%