North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#28
Achievement Rating+14.2#32
Pace78.7#31
Improvement-0.2#195

Offense
Total Offense+9.1#12
First Shot+6.1#31
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#35
Layup/Dunks+0.9#152
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#52
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#86
Freethrows-0.7#213
Improvement-0.6#220

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#75
First Shot+4.4#48
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#233
Layups/Dunks-0.2#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#129
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#9
Freethrows-3.0#316
Improvement+0.3#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 4.7% 6.3% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.2% 53.5% 33.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.5% 51.8% 32.4%
Average Seed 8.3 8.0 9.0
.500 or above 98.4% 99.4% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 76.8% 80.0% 71.4%
Conference Champion 3.7% 4.4% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
First Four7.7% 7.8% 7.6%
First Round43.2% 50.4% 31.0%
Second Round27.0% 32.2% 18.2%
Sweet Sixteen11.8% 14.4% 7.4%
Elite Eight5.5% 6.8% 3.4%
Final Four2.4% 2.9% 1.4%
Championship Game0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Penn St. (Neutral) - 62.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 339   Mount St. Mary's W 105-55 99%     1 - 0 +33.7 +20.3 +10.7
  Nov 10, 2018 348   Maryland Eastern Shore W 95-49 99%     2 - 0 +26.7 +16.7 +11.2
  Nov 13, 2018 344   UNC Asheville W 100-49 99%     3 - 0 +33.6 +7.8 +19.4
  Nov 17, 2018 329   Maine W 82-63 99%     4 - 0 +4.6 +5.1 -0.5
  Nov 20, 2018 266   St. Peter's W 85-57 97%     5 - 0 +19.0 +12.4 +7.3
  Nov 24, 2018 214   Mercer W 78-74 95%     6 - 0 -2.1 +0.0 -2.3
  Nov 27, 2018 13   @ Wisconsin L 75-79 30%     6 - 1 +14.2 +12.4 +1.7
  Dec 01, 2018 78   Vanderbilt W 80-65 72%     7 - 1 +21.5 +9.5 +12.1
  Dec 05, 2018 295   Western Carolina W 100-67 97%     8 - 1 +22.6 +7.0 +10.1
  Dec 15, 2018 54   Penn St. W 77-73 63%    
  Dec 19, 2018 8   Auburn L 82-84 41%    
  Dec 22, 2018 330   South Carolina Upstate W 93-66 99%    
  Dec 28, 2018 299   Loyola Maryland W 93-70 98%    
  Jan 03, 2019 46   @ Miami (FL) L 79-80 50%    
  Jan 08, 2019 6   North Carolina L 91-93 41%    
  Jan 12, 2019 121   Pittsburgh W 83-71 87%    
  Jan 15, 2019 156   @ Wake Forest W 84-75 80%    
  Jan 19, 2019 55   @ Notre Dame W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 24, 2019 35   @ Louisville L 79-81 42%    
  Jan 26, 2019 50   Clemson W 80-74 71%    
  Jan 29, 2019 7   Virginia L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 02, 2019 11   Virginia Tech L 80-81 45%    
  Feb 05, 2019 6   @ North Carolina L 88-96 22%    
  Feb 09, 2019 121   @ Pittsburgh W 80-74 71%    
  Feb 13, 2019 31   Syracuse W 76-73 62%    
  Feb 16, 2019 1   @ Duke L 81-94 11%    
  Feb 20, 2019 104   Boston College W 87-76 84%    
  Feb 24, 2019 156   Wake Forest W 87-72 91%    
  Mar 02, 2019 15   @ Florida St. L 80-85 34%    
  Mar 06, 2019 74   Georgia Tech W 78-69 78%    
  Mar 09, 2019 104   @ Boston College W 84-79 67%    
Projected Record 21.4 - 9.6 10.3 - 7.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.4 5.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.2 3.1 0.3 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.8 6.0 4.1 0.5 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.8 4.7 0.9 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.6 1.2 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.9 1.7 0.1 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.7 6.6 10.0 13.3 15.2 15.4 13.2 9.6 5.9 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 96.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 81.9% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 46.4% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 16.9% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 29.7% 70.3% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 99.7% 15.9% 83.9% 3.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-3 2.8% 99.0% 11.6% 87.5% 4.4 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
14-4 5.9% 96.3% 8.9% 87.4% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 95.9%
13-5 9.6% 90.7% 6.6% 84.1% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 90.1%
12-6 13.2% 78.2% 4.6% 73.7% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 77.2%
11-7 15.4% 58.4% 2.4% 56.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.4 57.4%
10-8 15.2% 36.4% 1.2% 35.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 9.7 35.6%
9-9 13.3% 17.8% 0.8% 17.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 11.0 17.2%
8-10 10.0% 4.1% 0.6% 3.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.6 3.5%
7-11 6.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 0.2%
6-12 3.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.1%
5-13 1.8% 1.8
4-14 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 46.2% 3.1% 43.2% 8.3 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.1 3.0 4.2 4.5 5.9 6.0 6.9 6.8 3.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 53.8 44.5%