North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#32
Achievement Rating+13.3#31
Pace78.9#21
Improvement-3.4#304

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#27
First Shot+5.0#44
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#53
Layup/Dunks+2.4#94
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#70
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#130
Freethrows-0.8#233
Improvement-3.1#305

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#51
First Shot+4.8#46
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#167
Layups/Dunks-1.7#250
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#6
Freethrows-1.5#270
Improvement-0.2#195
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.7% 90.1% 70.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.6% 90.0% 70.8%
Average Seed 9.3 9.2 10.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.6% 93.2% 56.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.7% 12.1% 20.9%
First Round80.6% 84.8% 61.3%
Second Round39.1% 41.8% 27.0%
Sweet Sixteen9.5% 10.1% 6.6%
Elite Eight3.5% 3.8% 2.2%
Final Four1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Home) - 82.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 327   Mount St. Mary's W 105-55 98%     1 - 0 +36.0 +20.7 +12.5
  Nov 10, 2018 352   Maryland Eastern Shore W 95-49 99.6%    2 - 0 +22.5 +14.6 +9.1
  Nov 13, 2018 340   UNC Asheville W 100-49 99%     3 - 0 +34.5 +5.5 +22.6
  Nov 17, 2018 314   Maine W 82-63 98%     4 - 0 +6.9 +4.5 +2.4
  Nov 20, 2018 310   St. Peter's W 85-57 97%     5 - 0 +16.5 +11.6 +5.5
  Nov 24, 2018 192   Mercer W 78-74 93%     6 - 0 -0.7 -1.8 +1.0
  Nov 27, 2018 15   @ Wisconsin L 75-79 27%     6 - 1 +14.3 +14.3 -0.1
  Dec 01, 2018 119   Vanderbilt W 80-65 78%     7 - 1 +18.8 +9.9 +8.9
  Dec 05, 2018 289   Western Carolina W 100-67 97%     8 - 1 +23.0 +4.7 +12.8
  Dec 15, 2018 57   Penn St. W 89-78 64%     9 - 1 +19.0 +11.2 +6.5
  Dec 19, 2018 14   Auburn W 78-71 46%     10 - 1 +19.9 +2.1 +17.1
  Dec 22, 2018 337   South Carolina Upstate W 98-71 99%     11 - 1 +11.7 +10.8 -1.3
  Dec 28, 2018 281   Loyola Maryland W 97-64 97%     12 - 1 +23.5 +9.3 +11.1
  Jan 03, 2019 60   @ Miami (FL) W 87-82 55%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +15.5 +15.2 +0.1
  Jan 08, 2019 6   North Carolina L 82-90 31%     13 - 2 1 - 1 +8.9 +1.5 +8.8
  Jan 12, 2019 91   Pittsburgh W 86-80 81%     14 - 2 2 - 1 +8.7 +9.9 -1.7
  Jan 15, 2019 176   @ Wake Forest L 67-71 82%     14 - 3 2 - 2 -1.9 -1.5 -0.7
  Jan 19, 2019 65   @ Notre Dame W 77-73 57%     15 - 3 3 - 2 +14.0 +8.7 +5.3
  Jan 24, 2019 16   @ Louisville L 77-84 27%     15 - 4 3 - 3 +11.2 +8.1 +3.6
  Jan 26, 2019 30   Clemson W 69-67 59%     16 - 4 4 - 3 +11.6 +5.1 +6.5
  Jan 29, 2019 3   Virginia L 65-66 24%     16 - 5 4 - 4 +18.2 +6.6 +11.5
  Feb 02, 2019 17   Virginia Tech L 24-47 47%     16 - 6 4 - 5 -10.3 -36.7 +19.1
  Feb 05, 2019 6   @ North Carolina L 96-113 16%     16 - 7 4 - 6 +5.5 +16.1 -7.7
  Feb 09, 2019 91   @ Pittsburgh W 79-76 64%     17 - 7 5 - 6 +11.2 +18.1 -6.7
  Feb 13, 2019 40   Syracuse W 73-58 64%     18 - 7 6 - 6 +23.2 +4.1 +18.6
  Feb 16, 2019 1   @ Duke L 78-94 8%     18 - 8 6 - 7 +11.4 +9.2 +3.8
  Feb 20, 2019 97   Boston College W 83-73 82%    
  Feb 24, 2019 176   Wake Forest W 84-69 93%    
  Mar 02, 2019 18   @ Florida St. L 76-82 27%    
  Mar 06, 2019 108   Georgia Tech W 76-66 84%    
  Mar 09, 2019 97   @ Boston College W 80-76 64%    
Projected Record 21.5 - 9.5 9.5 - 8.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 5.1 5.9 5th
6th 0.3 9.4 4.7 14.3 6th
7th 0.2 8.1 21.7 0.8 30.7 7th
8th 0.2 5.4 21.1 8.6 0.0 35.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 5.8 4.3 0.2 11.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.1 1.8 11.5 33.7 40.7 12.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 12.2% 98.6% 1.3% 97.3% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.4 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 98.6%
10-8 40.7% 94.3% 0.6% 93.7% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.5 8.2 10.0 9.9 5.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.3 94.3%
9-9 33.7% 87.5% 0.3% 87.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.2 6.7 9.2 6.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.2 87.5%
8-10 11.5% 55.8% 0.1% 55.7% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.1 55.8%
7-11 1.8% 17.8% 0.1% 17.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 17.7%
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 86.7% 0.5% 86.1% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 7.3 15.9 19.6 21.8 14.5 4.7 0.7 0.0 13.3 86.6%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.5 12.7 37.6 35.7 12.1 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 6.4 3.8 14.3 34.4 33.3 11.9 1.7 0.4 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6% 99.5% 7.4 0.5 3.6 16.9 32.7 29.2 11.9 3.9 0.8 0.0
Lose Out 0.0%