North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.7#6
Achievement Rating+20.3#10
Pace86.1#5
Improvement+1.3#123

Offense
Total Offense+11.8#5
First Shot+8.1#11
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#8
Layup/Dunks+1.7#120
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#26
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#177
Freethrows+2.7#29
Improvement+0.6#160

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#17
First Shot+5.8#33
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#16
Layups/Dunks+3.8#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#149
Freethrows+2.0#54
Improvement+0.7#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 10.5% 25.6% 6.1%
Top 4 Seed 96.8% 99.4% 96.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.5 2.0 2.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 12.3% 38.7% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round95.6% 97.1% 95.2%
Sweet Sixteen71.9% 75.6% 70.7%
Elite Eight44.8% 50.9% 43.0%
Final Four23.1% 27.9% 21.7%
Championship Game11.7% 14.7% 10.9%
National Champion5.4% 7.2% 4.9%

Next Game: Duke (Away) - 22.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 39   @ Wofford W 78-67 72%     1 - 0 +24.7 +9.2 +15.6
  Nov 09, 2018 316   @ Elon W 116-67 98%     2 - 0 +42.1 +20.9 +13.0
  Nov 12, 2018 92   Stanford W 90-72 94%     3 - 0 +20.6 +8.8 +9.7
  Nov 16, 2018 328   Tennessee Tech W 108-58 99%     4 - 0 +35.9 +16.4 +12.1
  Nov 19, 2018 240   St. Francis (PA) W 101-76 99%     5 - 0 +17.6 +4.0 +9.4
  Nov 22, 2018 27   Texas L 89-92 74%     5 - 1 +9.9 +11.4 -1.1
  Nov 23, 2018 94   UCLA W 94-78 91%     6 - 1 +21.3 +20.3 +0.2
  Nov 28, 2018 8   @ Michigan L 67-84 48%     6 - 2 +3.2 +7.5 -4.4
  Dec 05, 2018 252   UNC Wilmington W 97-69 99%     7 - 2 +19.8 -2.5 +17.2
  Dec 15, 2018 2   Gonzaga W 103-90 44%     8 - 2 +34.3 +20.0 +12.1
  Dec 22, 2018 5   Kentucky L 72-80 49%     8 - 3 +12.0 -1.9 +15.1
  Dec 29, 2018 79   Davidson W 82-60 93%     9 - 3 +25.5 +3.9 +19.6
  Jan 02, 2019 117   Harvard W 77-57 95%     10 - 3 +21.1 +0.8 +18.6
  Jan 05, 2019 91   @ Pittsburgh W 85-60 86%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +33.2 +11.2 +20.0
  Jan 08, 2019 32   @ North Carolina St. W 90-82 69%     12 - 3 2 - 0 +22.6 +7.9 +13.3
  Jan 12, 2019 16   Louisville L 62-83 75%     12 - 4 2 - 1 -8.3 -4.9 -3.0
  Jan 15, 2019 65   Notre Dame W 75-69 92%     13 - 4 3 - 1 +10.4 +1.5 +8.7
  Jan 19, 2019 60   @ Miami (FL) W 85-76 81%     14 - 4 4 - 1 +19.5 +19.2 +0.5
  Jan 21, 2019 17   Virginia Tech W 103-82 75%     15 - 4 5 - 1 +33.7 +26.0 +5.9
  Jan 29, 2019 108   @ Georgia Tech W 77-54 88%     16 - 4 6 - 1 +30.1 +7.9 +20.6
  Feb 02, 2019 16   @ Louisville W 79-69 56%     17 - 4 7 - 1 +28.2 +15.6 +12.6
  Feb 05, 2019 32   North Carolina St. W 113-96 84%     18 - 4 8 - 1 +26.1 +24.4 -1.2
  Feb 09, 2019 60   @ Miami (FL) W 88-85 81%     19 - 4 9 - 1 +13.5 +11.3 +1.9
  Feb 11, 2019 3   Virginia L 61-69 52%     19 - 5 9 - 2 +11.2 +8.3 +1.6
  Feb 16, 2019 176   @ Wake Forest W 95-57 94%     20 - 5 10 - 2 +40.1 +18.0 +20.1
  Feb 20, 2019 1   @ Duke L 86-94 23%    
  Feb 23, 2019 18   Florida St. W 87-80 76%    
  Feb 26, 2019 40   Syracuse W 82-70 87%    
  Mar 02, 2019 30   @ Clemson W 79-74 66%    
  Mar 05, 2019 97   @ Boston College W 88-76 86%    
  Mar 09, 2019 1   Duke L 89-91 43%    
Projected Record 23.8 - 7.2 13.8 - 4.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 7.1 4.7 12.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 8.1 10.7 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.7 23.2 27.0 3.9 58.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 4.9 2.4 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.1 1.7 9.8 26.3 35.6 21.8 4.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 4.7    2.9 1.9
15-3 32.7% 7.1    0.6 3.0 3.5
14-4 1.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 12.3% 12.3 3.5 4.9 3.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 4.7% 100.0% 26.6% 73.4% 1.3 3.2 1.4 0.1 100.0%
15-3 21.8% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 1.9 5.5 13.3 2.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 35.6% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 2.4 1.6 19.2 12.5 2.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 26.3% 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 2.9 0.2 7.9 12.6 4.7 0.8 0.1 100.0%
12-6 9.8% 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 3.5 0.0 1.1 4.0 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 1.7% 100.0% 5.9% 94.1% 4.3 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.1% 100.0% 2.8% 97.2% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 2.5 10.5 42.9 32.4 10.9 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 1.0 99.1 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6% 100.0% 1.3 68.9 30.2 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 100.0% 1.5 51.0 46.4 2.6
Lose Out 0.0% 100.0% 7.9 17.6 17.6 35.3 20.6 8.8