North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.1#6
Achievement Rating+14.5#30
Pace86.2#5
Improvement-1.4#281

Offense
Total Offense+12.5#3
First Shot+7.9#15
After Offensive Rebound+4.7#11
Layup/Dunks+2.6#99
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#228
Freethrows+3.6#24
Improvement-0.5#215

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#41
First Shot+3.7#64
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#58
Layups/Dunks+2.5#88
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#170
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#154
Freethrows+0.2#166
Improvement-0.9#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 21.0% 27.7% 11.8%
Top 4 Seed 77.0% 84.9% 66.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.9% 99.0% 96.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.6% 98.8% 95.9%
Average Seed 3.2 2.8 3.8
.500 or above 99.4% 99.8% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 96.1% 93.0%
Conference Champion 20.2% 22.9% 16.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.7% 0.4% 1.2%
First Round97.6% 98.9% 95.9%
Second Round86.3% 89.7% 81.8%
Sweet Sixteen59.9% 64.3% 54.0%
Elite Eight36.3% 40.5% 30.6%
Final Four20.3% 23.3% 16.2%
Championship Game10.8% 12.7% 8.1%
National Champion5.5% 6.6% 3.9%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Home) - 57.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 69   @ Wofford W 78-67 77%     1 - 0 +21.2 +9.4 +11.9
  Nov 09, 2018 305   @ Elon W 116-67 97%     2 - 0 +43.9 +21.5 +14.2
  Nov 12, 2018 96   Stanford W 90-72 92%     3 - 0 +20.4 +10.7 +7.7
  Nov 16, 2018 332   Tennessee Tech W 108-58 99%     4 - 0 +35.1 +14.4 +13.2
  Nov 19, 2018 216   St. Francis (PA) W 101-76 98%     5 - 0 +18.9 +4.6 +10.0
  Nov 22, 2018 42   Texas L 89-92 77%     5 - 1 +7.3 +13.6 -5.9
  Nov 23, 2018 44   UCLA W 94-78 77%     6 - 1 +26.2 +22.0 +3.5
  Nov 28, 2018 3   @ Michigan L 67-84 36%     6 - 2 +4.9 +7.1 -2.3
  Dec 05, 2018 219   UNC Wilmington W 97-69 98%     7 - 2 +21.7 +0.7 +15.9
  Dec 15, 2018 2   Gonzaga W 94-92 58%    
  Dec 22, 2018 20   Kentucky W 89-84 67%    
  Dec 29, 2018 82   Davidson W 89-74 91%    
  Jan 02, 2019 93   Harvard W 89-74 92%    
  Jan 05, 2019 121   @ Pittsburgh W 87-75 86%    
  Jan 08, 2019 28   @ North Carolina St. W 93-91 59%    
  Jan 12, 2019 35   Louisville W 88-79 80%    
  Jan 15, 2019 55   Notre Dame W 86-74 87%    
  Jan 19, 2019 46   @ Miami (FL) W 86-81 68%    
  Jan 21, 2019 11   Virginia Tech W 87-83 64%    
  Jan 29, 2019 74   @ Georgia Tech W 81-73 77%    
  Feb 02, 2019 35   @ Louisville W 85-82 62%    
  Feb 05, 2019 28   North Carolina St. W 96-88 78%    
  Feb 09, 2019 46   Miami (FL) W 89-78 84%    
  Feb 11, 2019 7   Virginia W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 16, 2019 156   @ Wake Forest W 91-76 91%    
  Feb 20, 2019 1   @ Duke L 88-96 23%    
  Feb 23, 2019 15   Florida St. W 91-84 73%    
  Feb 26, 2019 31   Syracuse W 82-73 78%    
  Mar 02, 2019 50   @ Clemson W 83-78 69%    
  Mar 05, 2019 104   @ Boston College W 90-80 82%    
  Mar 09, 2019 1   Duke L 91-93 43%    
Projected Record 22.7 - 8.3 12.6 - 5.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.5 6.5 3.1 0.6 20.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.9 8.8 5.2 1.0 0.0 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.6 7.6 3.6 0.4 0.0 16.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.1 6.1 2.9 0.3 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.6 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.7 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.8 5.2 8.2 11.7 14.7 16.2 15.5 12.1 7.5 3.2 0.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.8% 3.1    2.9 0.2
16-2 86.2% 6.5    4.6 1.8 0.1 0.0
15-3 53.6% 6.5    2.8 2.9 0.7 0.1
14-4 18.6% 2.9    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 3.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.2% 20.2 11.5 6.3 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 1.0 0.6 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.2% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 1.1 3.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 7.5% 100.0% 29.3% 70.7% 1.2 6.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.1% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 1.5 6.5 4.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.5% 100.0% 19.2% 80.8% 2.0 3.7 8.3 2.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.2% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 2.7 1.0 6.8 5.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.7% 99.9% 10.6% 89.3% 3.4 0.1 2.8 5.9 3.4 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 11.7% 99.6% 7.1% 92.4% 4.3 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
10-8 8.2% 98.9% 4.6% 94.3% 5.4 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.9%
9-9 5.2% 96.8% 3.4% 93.3% 6.5 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.6%
8-10 2.8% 85.3% 2.0% 83.3% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 85.0%
7-11 1.4% 58.5% 1.2% 57.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 57.9%
6-12 0.6% 32.4% 0.8% 31.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 31.8%
5-13 0.3% 11.4% 0.8% 10.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.7%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 97.9% 14.8% 83.1% 3.2 21.0 25.1 19.3 11.7 7.4 4.9 3.2 2.0 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 97.6%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0