North Dakota St.
Summit League
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#194
Achievement Rating-1.5#187
Pace65.9#265
Improvement-0.2#192

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#128
First Shot+4.5#52
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#341
Layup/Dunks-1.2#217
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#21
Freethrows+1.3#92
Improvement+0.6#163

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#274
First Shot-6.9#342
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#1
Layups/Dunks-3.7#314
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#342
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#214
Freethrows+1.6#74
Improvement-0.7#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.7% 9.5% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 36.7% 54.3% 15.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.5% 1.3%
First Round8.4% 9.3% 7.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Home) - 55.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 62   @ New Mexico St. L 56-73 13%     0 - 1 -6.8 -8.9 +1.2
  Nov 11, 2018 172   UC Santa Barbara W 82-63 55%     1 - 1 +15.7 +9.5 +6.9
  Nov 16, 2018 144   Miami (OH) L 78-89 36%     1 - 2 -9.3 +13.8 -24.2
  Nov 17, 2018 339   Incarnate Word L 78-80 86%     1 - 3 -15.5 -7.1 -8.4
  Nov 18, 2018 253   Towson W 76-51 63%     2 - 3 +19.6 +4.3 +16.5
  Nov 24, 2018 93   @ East Tennessee St. L 61-79 17%     2 - 4 -9.9 -3.7 -7.6
  Nov 26, 2018 2   @ Gonzaga L 60-102 1%     2 - 5 -15.2 -4.4 -9.8
  Dec 01, 2018 130   Drake L 88-95 32%     2 - 6 -4.2 +15.2 -19.3
  Dec 03, 2018 12   @ Iowa St. L 59-81 4%     2 - 7 -3.0 -8.5 +6.3
  Dec 08, 2018 238   Eastern Washington W 74-67 70%     3 - 7 -0.4 +0.7 -0.6
  Dec 15, 2018 148   Missouri St. W 74-67 48%     4 - 7 +5.5 -2.3 +7.6
  Dec 17, 2018 109   @ Montana L 53-60 20%     4 - 8 +0.0 -6.3 +4.9
  Dec 29, 2018 231   South Dakota W 71-65 69%     5 - 8 1 - 0 -1.2 +0.5 -1.3
  Dec 30, 2018 181   Purdue Fort Wayne L 87-90 58%     5 - 9 1 - 1 -7.0 +5.2 -12.1
  Jan 02, 2019 171   @ Nebraska Omaha L 77-90 34%     5 - 10 1 - 2 -10.6 +4.0 -15.2
  Jan 10, 2019 285   Western Illinois W 85-69 77%     6 - 10 2 - 2 +6.2 +9.0 -2.5
  Jan 16, 2019 297   @ Denver L 65-80 61%     6 - 11 2 - 3 -20.0 -12.0 -8.1
  Jan 19, 2019 273   North Dakota W 67-65 75%     7 - 11 3 - 3 -7.2 -2.9 -4.1
  Jan 24, 2019 77   @ South Dakota St. L 69-87 15%     7 - 12 3 - 4 -8.9 -9.2 +2.3
  Jan 26, 2019 280   @ Oral Roberts W 67-57 57%     8 - 12 4 - 4 +6.1 -4.5 +11.4
  Feb 02, 2019 285   @ Western Illinois W 78-76 58%     9 - 12 5 - 4 -2.2 +5.7 -7.9
  Feb 06, 2019 273   @ North Dakota W 74-70 56%     10 - 12 6 - 4 +0.3 +1.7 -1.3
  Feb 09, 2019 297   Denver W 81-71 79%     11 - 12 7 - 4 -0.5 +1.2 -1.6
  Feb 14, 2019 280   Oral Roberts W 85-73 76%     12 - 12 8 - 4 +2.5 +18.2 -13.7
  Feb 16, 2019 77   South Dakota St. L 77-78 29%     12 - 13 8 - 5 +2.6 +10.5 -8.0
  Feb 23, 2019 171   Nebraska Omaha W 79-78 55%    
  Feb 28, 2019 231   @ South Dakota L 70-71 48%    
  Mar 02, 2019 181   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 78-82 36%    
Projected Record 13.4 - 14.6 9.4 - 6.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.4 2.5 3.0 2nd
3rd 1.6 18.7 8.0 28.3 3rd
4th 16.2 37.4 15.1 68.7 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 16.2 39.1 34.2 10.5 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 10.5% 11.8% 11.8% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.1 9.3
10-6 34.2% 9.7% 9.7% 15.4 0.1 2.0 1.3 30.9
9-7 39.1% 8.1% 8.1% 15.6 0.0 1.4 1.8 35.9
8-8 16.2% 6.4% 6.4% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 15.1
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.4 4.4 4.0 91.3 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 14.8 0.2 23.1 69.2 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.4%
Lose Out 6.2%