North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#219
Achievement Rating-5.4#243
Pace78.4#22
Improvement-3.8#316

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#192
First Shot-1.4#223
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#105
Layup/Dunks-0.8#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#138
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#125
Freethrows-2.8#328
Improvement-1.5#257

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#253
First Shot-0.6#188
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#337
Layups/Dunks-1.3#238
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#50
Freethrows-1.0#242
Improvement-2.3#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.1% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 27.9% 59.3% 12.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.0%
First Round1.1% 1.7% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NJIT (Away) - 33.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 71   @ Dayton L 70-78 12%     0 - 1 +1.5 +3.1 -2.0
  Nov 09, 2018 57   @ Penn St. L 72-87 10%     0 - 2 -4.3 -1.9 -0.7
  Nov 17, 2018 142   @ Wright St. L 72-89 23%     0 - 3 -12.6 +0.2 -12.6
  Nov 20, 2018 134   Southern Miss W 64-48 28%     1 - 3 +18.5 -11.9 +29.2
  Nov 21, 2018 131   Jacksonville St. L 78-83 27%     1 - 4 -2.3 +7.9 -10.1
  Nov 27, 2018 27   @ Florida L 66-98 5%     1 - 5 -16.4 +5.0 -21.8
  Nov 29, 2018 325   Florida A&M W 81-62 82%     2 - 5 +5.6 +1.9 +2.9
  Dec 01, 2018 220   @ Charleston Southern W 76-70 40%     3 - 5 +5.2 -7.5 +12.0
  Dec 11, 2018 43   @ Minnesota L 71-80 8%     3 - 6 +3.4 +1.5 +2.3
  Dec 13, 2018 228   @ Florida International L 89-102 42%     3 - 7 -14.5 +1.0 -13.3
  Dec 15, 2018 220   Charleston Southern W 68-61 60%     4 - 7 +0.8 -17.8 +17.7
  Dec 19, 2018 19   @ Florida St. L 81-95 3%     4 - 8 +4.1 +11.8 -6.6
  Dec 29, 2018 16   @ Auburn L 49-95 3%     4 - 9 -27.7 -20.9 -2.6
  Jan 05, 2019 322   North Alabama W 96-67 82%     5 - 9 1 - 0 +16.0 +15.4 -0.5
  Jan 09, 2019 48   @ Lipscomb L 66-81 8%     5 - 10 1 - 1 -2.9 -3.3 +1.3
  Jan 12, 2019 221   Florida Gulf Coast W 87-66 61%     6 - 10 2 - 1 +14.8 +2.3 +10.3
  Jan 16, 2019 338   @ Stetson W 87-77 75%     7 - 10 3 - 1 -0.6 +10.0 -10.4
  Jan 19, 2019 96   @ Liberty L 64-70 15%     7 - 11 3 - 2 +1.8 -4.4 +6.1
  Jan 21, 2019 194   NJIT L 72-76 55%     7 - 12 3 - 3 -8.7 -1.8 -6.8
  Jan 24, 2019 252   Jacksonville L 81-86 67%     7 - 13 3 - 4 -13.0 -1.5 -11.1
  Jan 27, 2019 221   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 80-88 40%     7 - 14 3 - 5 -8.8 +0.0 -8.0
  Jan 30, 2019 343   @ Kennesaw St. L 64-81 77%     7 - 15 3 - 6 -28.3 -21.6 -4.5
  Feb 06, 2019 48   Lipscomb L 55-92 17%     7 - 16 3 - 7 -30.4 -14.7 -14.5
  Feb 09, 2019 322   @ North Alabama W 82-73 65%     8 - 16 4 - 7 +1.4 +8.3 -6.8
  Feb 13, 2019 343   Kennesaw St. W 80-57 89%     9 - 16 5 - 7 +6.2 -0.7 +6.6
  Feb 16, 2019 194   @ NJIT L 71-75 33%    
  Feb 20, 2019 252   @ Jacksonville L 80-81 46%    
  Feb 23, 2019 96   Liberty L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 26, 2019 338   Stetson W 86-73 89%    
Projected Record 11.0 - 18.0 7.0 - 9.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 7.6 4.4 12.1 3rd
4th 4.0 11.6 0.4 16.0 4th
5th 1.1 22.1 3.7 0.0 26.9 5th
6th 0.5 15.2 13.4 0.1 29.1 6th
7th 2.9 12.0 0.8 15.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 3.4 28.3 40.4 23.1 4.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 4.8% 3.1% 3.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.6
8-8 23.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.1 0.4 22.6
7-9 40.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6 39.8
6-10 28.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.3 28.0
5-11 3.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.4 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.1 13.3 62.2 24.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2%
Lose Out 3.1%