North Texas
Conference USA
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#121
Achievement Rating+14.0#37
Pace65.2#297
Improvement-0.8#233

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#109
First Shot+2.5#105
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#173
Layup/Dunks+6.8#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#239
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#270
Freethrows+0.0#177
Improvement-0.7#232

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#142
First Shot+3.1#76
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#306
Layups/Dunks+4.1#48
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#149
Freethrows+1.1#124
Improvement-0.1#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 17.5% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.5% 0.4%
Average Seed 12.7 12.4 13.0
.500 or above 99.2% 99.9% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 93.7% 89.2%
Conference Champion 23.1% 27.1% 19.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
First Round14.5% 17.0% 12.4%
Second Round2.5% 3.2% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 47.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 270   Portland W 78-73 81%     1 - 0 -1.1 +8.4 -9.0
  Nov 11, 2018 186   @ Hawaii W 68-51 57%     2 - 0 +18.5 +3.4 +16.8
  Nov 17, 2018 347   Maryland Eastern Shore W 68-34 97%     3 - 0 +14.7 -8.0 +25.1
  Nov 20, 2018 330   Maine W 74-63 94%     4 - 0 -3.4 +6.0 -8.1
  Nov 24, 2018 265   St. Peter's W 75-66 87%     5 - 0 +0.0 +5.0 -4.5
  Nov 27, 2018 25   @ Oklahoma L 57-73 12%     5 - 1 -0.1 -13.1 +14.8
  Dec 05, 2018 140   @ Indiana St. W 80-69 44%     6 - 1 +15.9 +8.4 +7.1
  Dec 08, 2018 252   Texas Arlington W 63-61 86%     7 - 1 -6.3 -4.6 -1.5
  Dec 18, 2018 146   @ New Mexico L 79-80 47%    
  Dec 20, 2018 322   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 77-60 94%    
  Dec 29, 2018 315   @ Rice W 79-69 81%    
  Jan 03, 2019 137   Louisiana Tech W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 05, 2019 149   Southern Miss W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 10, 2019 214   @ UTEP W 69-66 62%    
  Jan 12, 2019 188   @ Texas San Antonio W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 19, 2019 315   Rice W 82-66 92%    
  Jan 24, 2019 217   UAB W 74-65 81%    
  Jan 26, 2019 254   Middle Tennessee W 73-61 86%    
  Jan 31, 2019 105   @ Old Dominion L 60-65 34%    
  Feb 02, 2019 309   @ Charlotte W 72-63 79%    
  Feb 07, 2019 129   Marshall W 79-75 63%    
  Feb 09, 2019 83   Western Kentucky W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 14, 2019 212   @ Florida Atlantic W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 16, 2019 228   @ Florida International W 84-80 66%    
Projected Record 17.9 - 6.1 9.5 - 4.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 6.4 8.7 5.1 1.3 23.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 6.8 7.8 2.3 0.1 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 5.1 7.5 1.8 0.1 15.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 7.1 2.3 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.3 3.1 0.2 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 4.0 0.4 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.6 1.0 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 5.0 9.0 13.4 17.0 18.4 16.1 11.0 5.2 1.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
13-1 98.0% 5.1    4.4 0.7 0.0
12-2 79.0% 8.7    4.9 3.3 0.5 0.0
11-3 39.8% 6.4    1.6 2.8 1.6 0.3 0.0
10-4 8.4% 1.5    0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-5 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 23.1% 23.1 12.4 7.1 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 1.3% 51.5% 36.4% 15.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 23.7%
13-1 5.2% 37.7% 32.1% 5.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.3 8.4%
12-2 11.0% 27.6% 25.8% 1.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.9 2.4%
11-3 16.1% 20.8% 20.5% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 12.8 0.4%
10-4 18.4% 15.4% 15.3% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 15.5 0.1%
9-5 17.0% 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 15.3 0.0%
8-6 13.4% 6.4% 6.4% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 12.6
7-7 9.0% 3.8% 3.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.6
6-8 5.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.9
5-9 2.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.3
4-10 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-11 0.3% 0.3
2-12 0.1% 0.1
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 14.9% 14.1% 0.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.8 4.4 4.5 2.8 0.8 0.1 85.1 0.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.3 0.7 0.3 0.7 2.7 8.5 11.6 21.8 38.1 14.6 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 36.8% 10.8 1.4 0.5 2.4 7.2 13.9 10.5 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 28.0% 11.0 0.5 1.0 5.2 14.0 6.2 1.0