Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-9.8#319
Achievement Rating-8.7#273
Pace74.2#91
Improvement-3.8#349

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#269
First Shot-0.7#200
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#328
Layup/Dunks-4.7#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#90
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#153
Freethrows+1.5#101
Improvement-1.3#286

Defense
Total Defense-6.2#328
First Shot-7.0#343
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#125
Layups/Dunks-4.0#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#332
Freethrows+1.5#106
Improvement-2.6#330
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 2.2% 3.9% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 10.9% 14.4% 8.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 36.4% 30.5% 40.7%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Away) - 42.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 302   Jacksonville W 97-82 55%     1 - 0 +3.9 +9.4 -7.2
  Nov 12, 2018 170   @ South Dakota L 74-90 13%     1 - 1 -13.5 +1.4 -14.1
  Nov 14, 2018 234   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-66 22%     2 - 1 +8.5 -3.7 +11.6
  Nov 18, 2018 186   @ Hawaii L 68-85 15%     2 - 2 -15.5 -3.8 -11.7
  Nov 29, 2018 222   @ UC Davis L 57-73 19%     2 - 3 -16.5 -10.4 -6.4
  Dec 01, 2018 272   @ Santa Clara L 74-81 26%     2 - 4 -10.1 -0.3 -9.8
  Dec 08, 2018 141   Utah Valley L 78-98 21%     2 - 5 -21.2 +3.8 -24.9
  Dec 15, 2018 323   @ San Jose St. L 71-73 42%    
  Dec 19, 2018 47   @ San Francisco L 61-84 2%    
  Dec 21, 2018 133   @ Utah L 67-82 8%    
  Dec 29, 2018 112   Montana L 70-81 15%    
  Dec 31, 2018 313   Montana St. W 81-79 58%    
  Jan 03, 2019 154   @ Weber St. L 74-87 11%    
  Jan 05, 2019 245   @ Idaho St. L 74-82 24%    
  Jan 12, 2019 253   @ Southern Utah L 76-83 25%    
  Jan 17, 2019 227   Sacramento St. L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 19, 2019 235   Portland St. L 81-83 42%    
  Jan 26, 2019 138   Northern Colorado L 76-85 22%    
  Jan 28, 2019 253   Southern Utah L 79-80 45%    
  Feb 02, 2019 284   @ Idaho L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 04, 2019 248   @ Eastern Washington L 70-78 25%    
  Feb 07, 2019 245   Idaho St. L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 09, 2019 154   Weber St. L 77-84 26%    
  Feb 14, 2019 235   @ Portland St. L 78-86 23%    
  Feb 16, 2019 227   @ Sacramento St. L 71-80 23%    
  Feb 21, 2019 284   Idaho W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 23, 2019 248   Eastern Washington L 73-75 44%    
  Mar 02, 2019 313   @ Montana St. L 78-82 37%    
  Mar 04, 2019 112   @ Montana L 67-84 7%    
  Mar 09, 2019 138   @ Northern Colorado L 73-88 10%    
Projected Record 8.5 - 21.5 6.0 - 14.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.2 3.3 0.6 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.6 6.2 4.3 0.8 0.0 15.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.7 7.2 4.3 0.8 0.0 20.6 10th
11th 0.7 2.6 5.5 7.4 6.3 2.9 0.6 0.0 25.9 11th
Total 0.7 2.6 5.9 9.5 12.7 14.1 13.9 12.4 9.8 7.5 4.8 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 57.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 51.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 27.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 9.6% 9.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 6.3% 6.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.4% 8.2% 8.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 0.8% 5.7% 5.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-8 1.7% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.6
11-9 2.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.9
10-10 4.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.8
9-11 7.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.4
8-12 9.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.7
7-13 12.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.4
6-14 13.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-15 14.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.0
4-16 12.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.7
3-17 9.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.5
2-18 5.9% 5.9
1-19 2.6% 2.6
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%