Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#307
Achievement Rating-9.0#298
Pace70.5#139
Improvement-0.7#216

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#245
First Shot-0.9#208
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#262
Layup/Dunks-1.9#246
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#119
Freethrows+0.2#163
Improvement-0.4#209

Defense
Total Defense-6.2#331
First Shot-7.1#344
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#89
Layups/Dunks-5.4#341
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#99
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#323
Freethrows+1.5#79
Improvement-0.3#199
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.3% 4.0% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 81.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 248   Jacksonville W 97-82 48%     1 - 0 +7.1 +10.3 -4.9
  Nov 12, 2018 231   @ South Dakota L 74-90 26%     1 - 1 -17.6 -2.5 -14.2
  Nov 14, 2018 171   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-66 16%     2 - 1 +12.4 -5.3 +17.0
  Nov 18, 2018 160   @ Hawaii L 68-85 15%     2 - 2 -14.3 -3.2 -11.1
  Nov 29, 2018 207   @ UC Davis L 57-73 21%     2 - 3 -16.0 -12.8 -3.4
  Dec 01, 2018 189   @ Santa Clara L 74-81 19%     2 - 4 -6.0 +2.3 -8.3
  Dec 08, 2018 114   Utah Valley L 78-98 18%     2 - 5 -18.8 +4.1 -22.7
  Dec 15, 2018 338   @ San Jose St. L 74-79 57%     2 - 6 -15.4 -5.8 -9.2
  Dec 19, 2018 61   @ San Francisco L 60-76 5%     2 - 7 -5.5 -3.7 -2.9
  Dec 21, 2018 95   @ Utah L 62-76 7%     2 - 8 -6.1 -5.8 -1.5
  Dec 29, 2018 109   Montana L 73-86 17%     2 - 9 0 - 1 -11.5 -1.2 -10.0
  Dec 31, 2018 227   Montana St. W 74-68 43%     3 - 9 1 - 1 -0.7 -5.3 +4.5
  Jan 03, 2019 166   @ Weber St. L 52-77 15%     3 - 10 1 - 2 -22.5 -22.6 +1.6
  Jan 05, 2019 313   @ Idaho St. W 81-69 41%     4 - 10 2 - 2 +5.8 +7.7 -1.0
  Jan 12, 2019 279   @ Southern Utah L 82-84 33%     4 - 11 2 - 3 -5.9 +9.0 -14.9
  Jan 17, 2019 264   Sacramento St. L 64-66 51%     4 - 12 2 - 4 -10.7 -4.3 -6.5
  Jan 19, 2019 291   Portland St. W 82-75 56%     5 - 12 3 - 4 -3.1 -7.1 +3.2
  Jan 26, 2019 183   Northern Colorado L 48-63 34%     5 - 13 3 - 5 -19.1 -17.9 -3.8
  Jan 28, 2019 279   Southern Utah W 80-77 54%     6 - 13 4 - 5 -6.4 -5.5 -1.3
  Feb 02, 2019 344   @ Idaho W 86-73 64%     7 - 13 5 - 5 +0.9 +6.3 -5.2
  Feb 04, 2019 238   @ Eastern Washington L 64-82 26%     7 - 14 5 - 6 -19.8 -11.9 -7.6
  Feb 07, 2019 313   Idaho St. L 79-81 63%     7 - 15 5 - 7 -13.7 +4.8 -18.7
  Feb 09, 2019 166   Weber St. L 71-86 30%     7 - 16 5 - 8 -18.0 -7.2 -9.9
  Feb 14, 2019 291   @ Portland St. L 94-103 35%     7 - 17 5 - 9 -13.6 +4.2 -16.6
  Feb 16, 2019 264   @ Sacramento St. W 78-66 30%     8 - 17 6 - 9 +8.9 +10.6 -0.9
  Feb 21, 2019 344   Idaho W 77-68 81%    
  Feb 23, 2019 238   Eastern Washington L 74-75 47%    
  Mar 02, 2019 227   @ Montana St. L 77-84 24%    
  Mar 04, 2019 109   @ Montana L 67-82 7%    
  Mar 09, 2019 183   @ Northern Colorado L 68-78 17%    
Projected Record 9.8 - 20.2 7.8 - 12.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.5 1.3 0.1 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 6.6 1.4 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 14.8 8.2 0.2 25.2 7th
8th 0.6 13.5 18.5 1.6 34.2 8th
9th 2.9 15.0 4.1 0.0 22.0 9th
10th 3.3 3.5 0.2 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 6.7 34.0 39.2 16.9 3.1 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-10 3.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 3.0
9-11 16.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 16.7
8-12 39.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.2 39.0
7-13 34.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 33.8
6-14 6.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.7
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 4.0%