Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#183
Achievement Rating-0.4#176
Pace67.8#209
Improvement-0.5#211

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#213
First Shot+0.3#172
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#271
Layup/Dunks+0.9#152
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#122
Freethrows+0.6#136
Improvement-4.0#321

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#179
First Shot-0.6#191
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#133
Layups/Dunks-2.5#278
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#36
Freethrows+2.4#35
Improvement+3.5#27
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 17.4% 13.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 6.0% 25.6% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.4% 1.0%
First Round14.3% 17.3% 13.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Away) - 21.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 161   Pepperdine W 88-80 56%     1 - 0 +5.1 +6.8 -2.3
  Nov 21, 2018 339   @ Incarnate Word W 90-64 81%     2 - 0 +15.3 +8.8 +6.3
  Nov 24, 2018 9   @ Texas Tech L 62-93 4%     2 - 1 -11.3 +4.6 -16.5
  Nov 28, 2018 297   @ Denver W 88-72 64%     3 - 1 +11.0 +8.7 +2.0
  Dec 01, 2018 298   @ Wyoming W 85-80 64%     4 - 1 -0.1 +3.3 -3.8
  Dec 15, 2018 103   @ San Diego L 65-85 20%     4 - 2 -12.5 -6.4 -5.2
  Dec 17, 2018 62   @ New Mexico St. L 62-74 14%     4 - 3 -1.8 -5.7 +3.9
  Dec 22, 2018 195   Rider L 67-74 53%     4 - 4 -9.0 -8.0 -0.9
  Dec 23, 2018 332   SIU Edwardsville L 72-82 83%     4 - 5 -21.5 -8.5 -12.8
  Dec 29, 2018 264   @ Sacramento St. W 70-65 57%     5 - 5 1 - 0 +1.9 -1.8 +3.7
  Dec 31, 2018 291   @ Portland St. W 73-60 62%     6 - 5 2 - 0 +8.4 +1.8 +7.8
  Jan 05, 2019 344   Idaho W 83-79 93%     7 - 5 3 - 0 -13.6 -0.5 -13.1
  Jan 07, 2019 238   Eastern Washington W 75-63 72%     8 - 5 4 - 0 +4.6 -2.5 +7.1
  Jan 12, 2019 109   Montana L 64-88 39%     8 - 6 4 - 1 -22.5 -8.8 -13.7
  Jan 14, 2019 227   @ Montana St. W 73-70 49%     9 - 6 5 - 1 +1.8 +1.6 +0.4
  Jan 19, 2019 166   @ Weber St. L 64-78 35%     9 - 7 5 - 2 -11.5 -7.3 -4.2
  Jan 21, 2019 313   @ Idaho St. W 77-53 68%     10 - 7 6 - 2 +17.8 +8.7 +12.6
  Jan 24, 2019 279   Southern Utah W 79-68 78%     11 - 7 7 - 2 +1.6 -0.7 +1.8
  Jan 26, 2019 307   @ Northern Arizona W 63-48 66%     12 - 7 8 - 2 +9.3 -3.5 +15.5
  Feb 04, 2019 227   Montana St. L 66-69 70%     12 - 8 8 - 3 -9.7 -14.8 +5.2
  Feb 07, 2019 291   Portland St. W 80-62 80%     13 - 8 9 - 3 +7.9 +6.0 +3.4
  Feb 09, 2019 264   Sacramento St. W 65-59 76%     14 - 8 10 - 3 -2.7 -5.0 +2.8
  Feb 14, 2019 344   @ Idaho W 75-47 84%     15 - 8 11 - 3 +15.9 +3.6 +15.7
  Feb 16, 2019 238   @ Eastern Washington L 78-88 52%     15 - 9 11 - 4 -11.8 -2.0 -9.1
  Feb 25, 2019 109   @ Montana L 67-75 21%    
  Feb 28, 2019 166   Weber St. W 74-72 57%    
  Mar 02, 2019 313   Idaho St. W 77-67 84%    
  Mar 07, 2019 279   @ Southern Utah W 74-71 59%    
  Mar 09, 2019 307   Northern Arizona W 78-68 83%    
Projected Record 18.0 - 11.0 14.0 - 6.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.4 6.0 1st
2nd 0.2 7.6 31.6 25.5 2.2 67.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.1 14.2 5.9 24.4 3rd
4th 0.3 1.5 0.4 2.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.6 6.0 22.3 37.7 27.9 5.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 60.2% 3.4    1.1 2.2
15-5 8.5% 2.4    0.4 1.8 0.2
14-6 0.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 6.0% 6.0 1.5 4.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 5.6% 20.9% 20.9% 14.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 4.4
15-5 27.9% 17.6% 17.6% 15.2 0.0 0.4 3.4 1.1 22.9
14-6 37.7% 14.5% 14.5% 15.4 0.1 3.0 2.4 32.2
13-7 22.3% 11.8% 11.8% 15.6 0.0 1.0 1.6 19.6
12-8 6.0% 7.8% 7.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.6
11-9 0.6% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 1.1 8.1 5.5 85.3 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 14.4 5.2 50.3 43.2 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6%
Lose Out 0.2%