Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#138
Achievement Rating+12.7#45
Pace75.5#67
Improvement-0.5#214

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#102
First Shot+2.7#98
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#167
Layup/Dunks+1.1#144
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#192
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#263
Freethrows+4.9#11
Improvement-0.5#209

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#185
First Shot-1.3#212
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#140
Layups/Dunks-3.3#289
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#272
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#185
Freethrows+4.1#16
Improvement-0.1#185
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 29.7% 22.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.5 13.0 13.7
.500 or above 94.4% 98.6% 93.1%
.500 or above in Conference 93.6% 96.7% 92.7%
Conference Champion 30.2% 39.1% 27.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round23.8% 29.4% 22.1%
Second Round3.1% 4.7% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.2% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 22.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 225   Pepperdine W 88-80 80%     1 - 0 +1.3 +3.7 -3.0
  Nov 21, 2018 336   @ Incarnate Word W 90-64 86%     2 - 0 +16.5 +9.7 +6.6
  Nov 24, 2018 12   @ Texas Tech L 62-93 7%     2 - 1 -12.4 +2.3 -15.2
  Nov 28, 2018 261   @ Denver W 88-72 68%     3 - 1 +13.2 +11.2 +1.7
  Dec 01, 2018 210   @ Wyoming W 85-80 57%     4 - 1 +5.1 +4.7 +0.0
  Dec 15, 2018 71   @ San Diego L 71-79 23%    
  Dec 17, 2018 63   @ New Mexico St. L 70-79 21%    
  Dec 22, 2018 125   Rider L 85-86 46%    
  Dec 29, 2018 227   @ Sacramento St. W 78-75 61%    
  Dec 31, 2018 235   @ Portland St. W 86-82 63%    
  Jan 05, 2019 284   Idaho W 81-69 86%    
  Jan 07, 2019 248   Eastern Washington W 80-70 82%    
  Jan 12, 2019 112   Montana W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 14, 2019 313   @ Montana St. W 85-77 77%    
  Jan 19, 2019 154   @ Weber St. L 81-82 45%    
  Jan 21, 2019 245   @ Idaho St. W 81-77 64%    
  Jan 24, 2019 253   Southern Utah W 86-76 82%    
  Jan 26, 2019 319   @ Northern Arizona W 85-76 78%    
  Feb 04, 2019 313   Montana St. W 88-74 89%    
  Feb 07, 2019 235   Portland St. W 89-79 80%    
  Feb 09, 2019 227   Sacramento St. W 81-72 79%    
  Feb 14, 2019 284   @ Idaho W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 16, 2019 248   @ Eastern Washington W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 25, 2019 112   @ Montana L 74-79 32%    
  Feb 28, 2019 154   Weber St. W 84-79 65%    
  Mar 02, 2019 245   Idaho St. W 84-74 81%    
  Mar 07, 2019 253   @ Southern Utah W 83-79 65%    
  Mar 09, 2019 319   Northern Arizona W 88-73 90%    
Projected Record 18.9 - 9.1 14.0 - 6.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 6.9 8.0 6.0 3.0 0.8 30.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 3.3 7.0 7.9 5.6 2.1 0.3 27.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.7 5.9 4.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.7 7.1 9.6 11.9 13.6 13.8 12.7 10.1 6.3 3.0 0.8 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 100.0% 3.0    2.9 0.1
18-2 95.1% 6.0    5.3 0.7 0.0
17-3 79.6% 8.0    6.1 1.9 0.1
16-4 54.0% 6.9    4.1 2.5 0.3
15-5 29.2% 4.0    1.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.0% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 30.2% 30.2 21.1 7.6 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 65.0% 60.0% 5.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 12.6%
19-1 3.0% 56.8% 53.2% 3.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.3 7.6%
18-2 6.3% 46.6% 45.7% 1.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.3 1.8%
17-3 10.1% 38.7% 38.5% 0.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.2 0.4%
16-4 12.7% 31.9% 31.8% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.7 0.1%
15-5 13.8% 26.7% 26.7% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.7 0.0 10.1 0.0%
14-6 13.6% 21.1% 21.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.0 0.0 10.7
13-7 11.9% 16.2% 16.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.1 10.0
12-8 9.6% 12.8% 12.8% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 8.4
11-9 7.1% 10.0% 10.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 6.4
10-10 4.7% 6.5% 6.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.4
9-11 3.0% 4.4% 4.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.9
8-12 1.8% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.7
7-13 0.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
6-14 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 24.0% 23.8% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.9 6.7 7.1 4.3 0.9 76.0 0.3%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 10.5 2.2 2.2 6.5 15.2 8.7 41.3 21.7 2.2