Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#150
Achievement Rating-2.1#191
Pace66.3#250
Improvement-2.1#275

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#122
First Shot+0.8#159
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#86
Layup/Dunks-0.4#183
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#230
Freethrows-1.5#279
Improvement-6.5#347

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#198
First Shot-1.5#218
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#150
Layups/Dunks+3.7#43
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#348
Freethrows-0.3#203
Improvement+4.4#12
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.7% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.4 15.1
.500 or above 4.1% 14.6% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 11.3% 35.4% 5.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round1.0% 1.7% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Away) - 18.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 106   Northern Kentucky L 85-88 46%     0 - 1 -1.3 -0.8 +0.0
  Nov 23, 2018 280   Oral Roberts W 87-66 76%     1 - 1 +14.3 +7.1 +6.9
  Nov 24, 2018 258   James Madison L 74-78 73%     1 - 2 -9.6 +12.3 -22.8
  Nov 25, 2018 216   @ Oakland W 92-72 55%     2 - 2 +19.5 +27.9 -5.8
  Nov 28, 2018 224   @ Green Bay L 83-85 57%     2 - 3 -3.1 +7.4 -10.5
  Dec 05, 2018 207   UC Davis W 71-62 73%     3 - 3 +3.5 -0.4 +4.1
  Dec 08, 2018 46   @ Butler L 68-95 14%     3 - 4 -14.8 +6.9 -24.5
  Dec 17, 2018 285   Western Illinois W 91-76 84%     4 - 4 +5.2 +12.1 -7.1
  Dec 20, 2018 106   @ Northern Kentucky L 62-65 27%     4 - 5 +4.3 -8.0 +12.2
  Dec 22, 2018 351   Chicago St. W 100-59 97%     5 - 5 +18.3 +10.1 +5.7
  Dec 29, 2018 4   @ Michigan St. L 60-88 3%     5 - 6 -5.0 -4.0 +0.1
  Jan 05, 2019 209   @ Ohio W 72-66 53%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +5.9 +4.2 +1.8
  Jan 08, 2019 144   @ Miami (OH) W 83-70 36%     7 - 6 2 - 0 +17.5 +20.7 -1.8
  Jan 12, 2019 126   Akron W 73-56 51%     8 - 6 3 - 0 +17.5 +13.5 +5.9
  Jan 15, 2019 147   Central Michigan L 69-78 58%     8 - 7 3 - 1 -10.4 -8.4 -1.9
  Jan 19, 2019 142   @ Kent St. L 68-78 36%     8 - 8 3 - 2 -5.5 -2.4 -3.4
  Jan 22, 2019 28   Buffalo W 77-75 19%     9 - 8 4 - 2 +12.1 -2.3 +14.2
  Jan 26, 2019 126   @ Akron L 65-67 31%     9 - 9 4 - 3 +4.0 +1.9 +2.1
  Jan 29, 2019 209   Ohio W 71-60 73%     10 - 9 5 - 3 +5.4 -0.1 +5.6
  Feb 02, 2019 67   Toledo L 55-69 36%     10 - 10 5 - 4 -9.6 -9.5 -1.7
  Feb 05, 2019 120   Ball St. L 71-72 49%     10 - 11 5 - 5 -0.1 -1.3 +1.2
  Feb 09, 2019 149   @ Eastern Michigan L 49-57 38%     10 - 12 5 - 6 -4.0 -16.4 +11.6
  Feb 12, 2019 263   @ Western Michigan L 74-76 65%     10 - 13 5 - 7 -5.1 -1.1 -4.0
  Feb 16, 2019 100   Bowling Green L 67-87 44%     10 - 14 5 - 8 -17.8 -2.3 -16.2
  Feb 23, 2019 67   @ Toledo L 67-76 19%    
  Feb 26, 2019 263   Western Michigan W 77-68 82%    
  Mar 02, 2019 149   Eastern Michigan W 67-65 59%    
  Mar 05, 2019 147   @ Central Michigan L 76-79 37%    
  Mar 08, 2019 120   @ Ball St. L 70-76 29%    
Projected Record 12.3 - 16.7 7.3 - 10.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 0.6 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.6 0.6 5.9 5th
6th 0.1 5.7 3.7 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 12.3 1.0 15.0 7th
8th 0.3 11.5 8.3 0.0 20.1 8th
9th 0.1 5.2 17.2 1.4 23.9 9th
10th 2.8 14.1 6.3 0.1 23.3 10th
11th 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 3.5 19.9 36.8 28.5 9.9 1.4 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 1.4% 3.9% 3.9% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
9-9 9.9% 2.3% 2.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.7
8-10 28.5% 1.0% 1.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 28.2
7-11 36.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 36.5
6-12 19.9% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 19.8
5-13 3.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.5
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.2 1.9 14.8 40.7 42.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 2.2%